| 摘要(英) |
Enterprises import ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) one after another due to facing an intense competitive environment. ERP can rapidly react to instant information such as the market information and customer demand for the management hierarchy of enterprises to improve the efficiency of business operations. In order to maximize profits, ERP system developers must persistently invest new R&D resources to achieve business management needs and minimize development risks.
However, software development project implementation ultimately implemented depends on several factors, including development time, cost and quality. But in general, software project managers’ consideration is based on market opportunities, thus set the development time as the highest priority consideration, and exclude customer demand or other factors such as integrated plans to delay. Therefore, the development time is one of the important key determinants, this study directly substituted the development time for software project development costs. It not only can truly reflect the project development costs but also have no distortions of the internal costs while offering different discounts for external clients.
The inadequate information in the early stages of the project, and software has features with customized and a customer service orientation, increasing the difficulty of the initial estimation. Therefore, how to estimate project development time during the early stage of development thus is an important task for software developers. If the estimated development cost of a project exceeds the expected cost, the probability of the project implementation is reduced; the opposite if the estimated cost is far significantly below the actual cost, the project will negatively impact firm’ business performance. This study employed information systems recently developed by a large domestic DRP developer as a database. Using Linear Regression and data mining techniques such as Support Vector Regression and Neural Network, this study applied classification and estimation methods to construct a hierarchical time-estimation model for software development projects and compare it with other models, in the hope of estimating project development time efficiently and accurately. Comparing with a single estimation model, the study proposed hierarchical time-estimation model has better estimation ability. The estimation result provides an important reference for project decision makers, it also increases their decision making quality.
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