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以作者查詢圖書館館藏 、以作者查詢臺灣博碩士 、以作者查詢全國書目 、勘誤回報 、線上人數：232 、訪客IP：18.220.116.34
姓名 鍾承儒(Cheng-ju Chung) 查詢紙本館藏 畢業系所 大氣物理研究所 論文名稱 應用衛星資料估算西行侵台颱風降雨潛勢之研究 相關論文 檔案 [Endnote RIS 格式]
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摘要(中) 台灣位於西北太平洋地區颱風侵襲的主要路徑，平均而言，每年會遭遇數個颱風，其能為台灣帶來的豐沛雨量，但往往也造成嚴重災情。陳(2010)根據颱風位於相同位置時，降雨分佈會因地形效應導致相似降雨分佈之特性，藉以修正熱帶氣旋降雨潛勢技術(Tropical Rainfall Potential Technique,TRaP)，但其方法包含不同路徑(北行與西行)的颱風降雨分佈，因而會造成誤差。
因此，本研究目的即為針對地形作用與環境風場對西行侵台颱風降雨的影響，建立TRaP估算降雨與中央氣象局自動觀測站時雨量關係，再根據陳(2010)方法進行降雨分佈修正與降雨總量修正，以改進降雨潛勢預報的精準度。
由1997年至2008年的25個非獨立颱風個案所得結果顯示陳(2010)的方法已能大幅改善原始TRaP的精度。而本研究亦能改善原始TRaP估算之結果，使其平均相關係數由0.08改善至0.69，均方根誤差則由171.6mm降至120.3mm，平均偏差量則由-25.8mm下降至2.9mm。而在獨立個案2009年莫拉克颱風的結果顯示，本研究與陳(2010)的相關係數皆達0.9，但在均方根誤差則能由陳(2010)的305.7mm降至256.4mm，平均偏差量也由-129.8mm降至-74.3mm，可見有所改進。因此在台灣地區應用TRaP估算颱風降雨時，颱風路徑也是必須考量的因素之一。
摘要(英) Taiwan is situated within one of the frequent tropical cyclone tracks around Pacific Ocean. Such storms not only bring forth abundant rainfall, but also cause serious damages. Using typhoon cases that shared relatively the same typhoon positions, which would yield similar rainfall distributions in Taiwan, Chen (2010) sought to improve the tropical rainfall potential technique (TRaP). But this method didn’t consider the different rainfall distribution between westward and northward-moving typhoons.
This study mainly analyzes westward-moving typhoons causes that made landfall in Taiwan. Chen’s (2010) method is employed by further considering the terrain effect to improve TRaP in Taiwan. The results of this study obviously improved when compared to the original TRaP. For 25 dependent cases from 1997 to 2008, the mean correlation coefficient increased from 0.08 to 0.69. Meanwhile, the root mean square error decreased from 171.6mm to 120.3mm and the mean bias decreased from -25.8mm to 2.9mm. For typhoon Morakot in 2009, the result of this study was able to obtain a better performance over Chen (2010). Although the correlation coefficient was both equal to 0.9, the root mean square error could decrease from 305.7mm to 256.4mm and the mean bias could drop from -129.8mm to -74.3mm. Consequently, the typhoon tracks should be considered when seeking to improve the TRaP technique in Taiwan.
關鍵字(中) ★ 西行侵台颱風
★ 熱帶氣旋降雨潛勢技術
★ 地形效應關鍵字(英) ★ Westward-moving Typhoons
★ Tropical Rainfall Potential Technique
★ Terrain Effect論文目次 摘要 .......................................................................................................... i
Abstract .................................................................................................. ii
致謝 ....................................................................................................... iii
目錄 ......................................................................................................... v
表目錄 ..................................................................................................viii
圖目錄 .................................................................................................... ix
第一章 緒論 ........................................................................................... 1
1.1 前言 ........................................................................................... 1
1.2 文獻回顧 .................................................................................... 2
1.3 研究目的 .................................................................................... 6
第二章 資料收集與處理 ........................................................................ 8
2.1 SSM/I 衛星資料 ........................................................................ 8
2.2 地球同步衛星紅外線資料 ...................................................... 10
2.3 中央氣象局自動雨量站資料 .................................................. 12
2.4 JTWC 最佳路徑資料 .............................................................. 13
2.5 QuikSCAT 風場資料 .............................................................. 13
2.6 綜觀天氣圖 .............................................................................. 14
第三章 研究方法 ................................................................................. 15
3.1 TRaP 降雨估算 ...................................................................... 15
vi
3.1.1 海上颱風降雨率分佈之反演 ............................................... 16
3.2 估算颱風旋轉速度 .................................................................... 18
3.3 降雨分佈與颱風路徑之關係 .................................................... 19
3.4 西行颱風資料庫建置 ................................................................ 20
3.5 TRaP 降雨分布修正 ................................................................. 21
3.6 降雨總量修正 ........................................................................... 22
3.7 決定颱風伴隨西南氣流的風場類型 ........................................ 24
3.8 西南氣流影響顯著範圍 ............................................................ 25
第四章 結果分析與討論 ...................................................................... 27
4.1 整體結果分析 ............................................................................. 27
4.2 2008 年西行侵台颱風個案分析與討論 ...................................... 28
4.2.1 2008 年 卡玫基 颱風 ............................................................ 28
4.2.2 2008 年 鳳凰 颱風................................................................ 29
4.2.3 2008 年 辛樂克 颱風 ............................................................ 31
4.2.4 2008 年 薔蜜 颱風................................................................ 32
4.3 獨立個案分析與討論 .................................................................. 33
4.3.1 2009 年 莫拉克 颱風 ............................................................ 33
vii
4.3.2 2010 年 凡那比 颱風 ............................................................ 36
第五章 結論與展望 ............................................................................. 38
參考文獻 ............................................................................................... 40
參考網站 ............................................................................................... 47
附表 ....................................................................................................... 48
附圖 ....................................................................................................... 55
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指導教授 劉振榮(Gin-rong Liu) 審核日期 2012-7-27 推文 plurk
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