| 摘要(英) |
Based on the main terrain of Taiwan (mountains, hills, topographic), the economic development has obviously gap between east and west side. In order to balance the economic development on both sides of Taiwan, government has developing numbers of highways and speed roads. Even though, the comprehensive development still possess barriers which government has to open-up tunnels for more roads construction. Besides, since 2005, the era of long road tunnels has begun by continually tunnels opening such as the tunnels of Baguashan and Hsuehshan Tunnel which increase the general risk of traffic accidents in tunnel of Taiwan. According to overseas traffic accident cases of tunnels, it will be more difficult to evacuate the accident in tunnel than the accident on the road because of the closure terrain. The traffic accident in tunnel usually could cause seriously humanity and financial damage.
In order to avoid the occurrence of serious accident in tunnel, this thesis would not only reference on the past database of traffic accidents, but also use the theory of survival analysis to analyze the interval periods of accident in tunnel to seek for the variables which cause the accidents. Those variables could be classified to three categories, ‘tunnel geometric design’, ‘tunnel traffic’, and ‘traffic control facilities’. The variables would usually use with the regulations of the usage of road to define and come out the final variables and contrast to Cox model.
From the research of accident in tunnels, there are 25% chance over 81 days of next accident happen; and 50% chance over 39 days; and 75% chance over 14 days. The final examination came out the results of tunnel length, daily heavy traffic, heavy vehicle control, and variable speed limit signs which possess prominence demonstration to Cox model and also could be explain effectively to the interval period of accident in tunnels. |
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