空氣污染與健康的效益評估－BenMAP

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吳湘婷(Siang-Ting Wu) 查詢紙本館藏

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論文名稱

空氣污染與健康的效益評估－BenMAP
(Assessing the Benefit Analysis of Air Quality Changes using BenMAP)

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摘要(中)

本研究為國內首次運用BenMAP探討空氣污染對健康之衝擊及其效益評估，採用包含經緯度之圖層資料，結合監測站數值資訊、健康衝擊函數、人口資料、疾病發生率資料、價值衡量函數等等資料，評估1998年至2008年間， PM10、二氧化硫、臭氧及二氧化氮的變動，對於急性呼吸道疾病發生件數及死亡人數之衝擊及效益。
估計結果顯示1998年與2002年相比，PM10、二氧化硫的濃度大幅下降，實驗年為2004年時，污染程度相對嚴重；而臭氧的濃度則逐年上升，1998年與2008年相比，污染惡化程度最為嚴重；二氧化氮的污染程度則逐年改善，實驗年為2004年時，二氧化氮的濃度有些微上升。整體而言，1998年至2008年間，PM10的濃度呈上升趨勢，二氧化硫的集中度呈下降趨勢，然其變動幅度並不大，而臭氧的污染程度逐年惡化，二氧化氮的污染程度則大幅度的改善。
利用BenMAP之估計結果顯示，1998年至2008年間，臭氧污染程度之惡化為造成急性呼吸道疾病發生件數及因污染造成之疾病而死亡的人數增加的主要因素，其次是PM10；在此期間，二氧化氮污染程度的大幅改善，則使急性呼吸道疾病發生件數及因污染造成之疾病而死亡人數大幅增加，其次是二氧化硫。整體而言，如果空氣污染改善，將可帶來約7千萬至2百億的健康效益。

摘要(英)

This is the first study uses the software of BenMAP in Taiwan to investigate the impact of air quality on health, and further evaluates the benefits of air quality change. The study uses GIS shape files, air quality monitoring data, health impact function, population data, incidence data, and valuation function to measure the health benefits from the changes of the PM10, SO2, O3, and NO2 during the year of 1998 to 2008 in Taiwan.
The results show that the concentrations of PM10 and SO2 were declined substantially from 1998 to 2000. We also found that the level of air pollution measured by PM10 and SO2 are the most serious in 2004. The concentrations of O3 were increased year by year. When the control year is 2008 and have the highest level in 2008. The concentrations of NO2 were decreased during 1998 to 2008. In general, the concentrations of PM10 were increased, SO2 were decreased, O3 were increased substantially, and NO2 were decreased substantially from 1998 to 2008.
Our results demonstrate that the change of the O3 concentrations were the major reason which caused the increase of the cases of ARD and mortality. The great improvement of NO2 is the major reason which caused the decrease of the cases of ARD and mortality. Overall, our results show that the health benefits range from 66 million to 2 billion if the condition of air quality can be improved.

關鍵字(中)

★ 效益評估
★ BenMAP
★ 空氣污染

關鍵字(英)

★ Benefits Analysis
★ Air Pollution
★ BenMAP

論文目次

第一章緒論 1
第一節研究背景 1
第二節研究動機及目的 2
第三節研究架構 3
第二章重要名詞詮釋與文獻回顧 5
第一節重要名詞詮釋 5
一、台灣空氣品質監測站簡介 5
二、污染物定義 6
三、健康議題定義 8
第二節重要的政府管制政策 9
第三節相關文獻探討 12
一、空氣污染與急性呼吸道疾病之文獻回顧 12
二、空氣污染與死亡率之文獻回顧 18
三、 BenMAP之相關文獻回顧 21
第三章研究方法-BenMAP 27
第一節資料建構 27
第二節分析方法－自定變數分析法 30
一、建構包含空氣品質的區域方格 30
二、建構分析的結構設定 33
三、總計、整合及衡量 34
四、建立分析結果 37
第三節繪製地圖 38
第四章資料的建構與說明 40
第五章實證結果分析 54
第一節 1998年至2008年各污染物的集中度變化 54
一、 PM10 55
二、二氧化硫 61
三、臭氧 67
四、二氧化氮 73
第二節七個空品區的健康衝擊效果及效益評估 79
一、分析步驟 79
二、空氣污染物的變動對於急性呼吸道疾病的衝擊效果及效益 80
三、空氣污染物的變動對於死亡人數的衝擊效果及效益 90
第六章結論與建議 105
第一節結論 105
第二節研究限制與建議 110
參考文獻 111

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指導教授

劉錦龍(Jin-long Liu)

審核日期

2010-7-29

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