SSM/I衛星資料在颱風降雨潛勢預報上之應用

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趙俊傑(Chun-Chieh Chao) 查詢紙本館藏

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大氣物理研究所

論文名稱

SSM/I衛星資料在颱風降雨潛勢預報上之應用
(Apply SSM/I data to predict Typhoon Rainfall Potential)

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★ 模式和SSM/I客觀潛力指數在中尺度對流系統預報上之應用	★ SSM/I衛星資料估算之客觀潛力指數與颱風強度變化之關係
★ 應用SSM/I衛星資料分析颱風形成之激發機制	★ 衛星資料估算颱風旋轉及強度變化在熱帶氣旋定量降雨預測之研究

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摘要(中)

對於侵臺前之颱風降水預報，氣象雷達之掃描區域有限制性，而模式亦有初始化及參數化之相關問題，皆無法很準確地預測短期的強烈降水，而被動式微波輻射計推估降水預報是可行的方法。Kidder et al(2005)使用SSM/I、TMI及AMSU等被動微波輻射計估算，參考美國官方之颱風最佳路徑，預測豪大雨之24小時潛勢預報，此技術(Tropical Rainfall Potential，簡稱TRaP)提供一個快速又實用的方法，應用此技術預測降雨量比中尺度數值預測模式更接近於實際觀測(Ferraro et al，2005)。
本研究參考TRaP方法，加上颱風螺旋雨帶的變化，以台灣附近外島雨量站當作驗證，結果可以增進TRaP的降雨準確率將近百分之四十，另外利用中國大陸東南沿海地區測站驗證，結果可以增進TRaP的降雨準確率將近百分之十二，若考慮強度變化加入TRaP中，則有微幅的改善，另外本文利用紅外線雲圖計算颱風雲圖旋轉速度，並以此推估颱風強度的方法，則得到不錯之結果。
另外，本研究亦探討地形效應對TRaP潛勢降雨預測之影響，結果顯示迎風面對於TRaP有低估的情況，背風面則有高估的情形，故本研究參考Lin等(2001)的方法，改善颱風降雨潛勢的計算，有地形修正之ETS技術得分比無地形修正要佳，尤其在颱風雨帶旋轉角度0至4度修正幅度較大，技術得分增加幅度將近百分之十。
最後評估中央山脈地形對侵台颱風風雨分佈之鎖定效應，可以增進颱風潛勢降雨預測之結果，對未來台灣地區颱風潛勢降雨方法的改良有助益。

摘要(英)

Pursuing accuracy of quantitative precipitation forecast is a scientific goal and also people’s expectation, especially for disastrous rainfall predictios of landing typhoons. All typhoons get birth and develop on ocean where traditional observations are scarce for them. Therefore, weather satellite observations are very crucial. The typhoons are coming and approaching to offshore area, where are only a few observations around. The scanning from land-based weather radar for rainfall structures of typhoons are valuable, but only could be available while typhoons in near coast. Satellite-borne microwave radiometers can be used to measure instantaneous rain rates through the full cover of typhoons which are very suitable for typhoon rainfall potential prediction.
As for simple Tropical Rainfall Potential (TRaP, Ferraro et al., 2005), it is assumed that estimated rain rates are correct and no intensity change and rain structure change occurred during typhoon’s movements. First we use JTWC’s typhoon best track data to predict rainfall potential of next six hours. The results are validated by offshore rain gauges data. The second, the rainband rotation rates are computed and further are applied to predict rainfall potential which be validated in Tainwan offshore island and mainland china. It could be reached about 40% improvements. The third, intensity changes are taken into considerations in the TRaP. It could have little improvement after comparing to the simple TRaP. Finally terrain effects are calculated during the TRaP processes and are discussed when estimating the typhoon rainfall potential. The performances of the results have further improvements.

關鍵字(中)

★ 衛星遙測
★ 潛勢降雨
★ 颱風

關鍵字(英)

★ rainfall potential
★ satellite remote sensing
★ Typhoon

論文目次

目錄
第一章緒論 1
1.1 研究動機與目的 1
1.2 文獻回顧 5
1.3 研究方法 12
第二章基礎理論 13
2.1 微波輻射傳遞方程 13
2.1.1.計算向上微波輻射量 14
2.1.2放射及散射型反演法 15
2.1.3多頻道海洋降雨反演方法極化差 17
2.1.4陸地上降雨反演法 18
2.2 紅外線輻射傳送方程 18
第三章資料來源與儀器介紹 20
3.1 被動微波輻射儀資料 20
3.2 同步氣象衛星資料 22
3.3 颱風路徑及強度資料 23
3.4測站雨量資料 24
3.5 飛機觀測颱風最大風速資料 24
第四章研究方法 26
4.1 降雨反演式介紹 26
4.2 決定颱風移動方向與移動速度之方法 28
4.3 決定颱風旋轉角速度之方法 29
4.4 技術得分 31
4.4.1 連續變數統計方法 31
4.4.2統計得分方法 32
第五章旋轉效應之分析與討論 36
5.1 僅考慮颱風移動方向與移動速度之結果 36
5.2 加入雨帶旋轉之結果 37
5.2.1 南卡颱風(2003年) 38
5.2.2杜鵑颱風(2003年) 38
5.2.3莫拉克颱風(2003年) 39
5.2.4 敏督利颱風(2004年) 39
5.2.5 艾利颱風(2004年) 40
5.3 整體結果討論 41
5.4 陸地驗證 42
5.4.1 榴槤颱風(2001年) 42
5.4.2 玉兔颱風(2001年) 43
5.4.3 伊布都颱風(2003年) 44
5.4.4 柯羅旺颱風(2003年) 45
5.4.5 杜鵑颱風(2003年) 45
5.4.6 馬莎颱風(2005年) 46
5.4.7 卡努颱風(2005) 47
5.4.7 整體結果討論 48
第六章颱風強度分析與降雨影響 49
6.1 颱風強度分析 49
6.1.1 梯度風方程式 50
6.1.2 轉速隨半徑不同之變化 51
6.1.3 不同環的旋轉速度之敏感度測試 52
6.1.4 颱風轉速與強度的相關係數 52
6.1.5 對流雲分率與均方根誤差(RMSE) 53
6.1.6 6小時平均轉速 54
6.1.7 颱風雲圖轉速的直方圖 55
6.1.8 颱風雲圖轉速的分類比較 55
6.1.9 每小時颱風雲圖轉速與颱風強度 56
6.1.10 6小時平均雲圖轉速與颱風強度 56
6.1.11 年度整體表現 57
6.1.12 驗證 58
6.2 颱風強度與降雨 59
6.3 颱風強度變化與TRAP 60
6.3.1南卡颱風(2003) 60
6.3.2蘇迪勒颱風(2003) 61
6.3.3莫拉克颱風(2003) 61
6.3.4杜鵑颱風(2003) 62
6.3.5敏督利颱風(2004) 63
6.3.6艾利颱風(2005) 63
6.3.7 馬莎颱風(2005) 64
6.3.8 綜合討論 64
第七章地形效應之影響 66
7.1 沒有地形效應的結果 69
7.1.1 旋轉角度的最佳化處理 69
7.1.2 碧利斯颱風(2000/08/22 00:15) 70
7.1.3 碧利斯颱風(2000/08/22 10:47) 71
7.1.4 象神颱風(2000/10/30 21:20) 72
7.1.5 桃芝颱風(2001/07/30 00:44) 73
7.1.6 納莉颱風(2001/09/16 10:29) 74
7.1.7 綜合研判 75
7.2 加入地形效應因子 76
7.3 結果討論 78
第八章結論與未來展望 81
8.1 結論 81
8.2 未來展望 83
參考文獻 86

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指導教授

劉振榮(Gin-Rong Liu)

審核日期

2011-7-7

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