| 摘要(英) |
Oil consumption is an important topic for the whole world. The goal of this study is to examine the causality between oil consumption and economic growth, and estimate the long-run price elasticity and income elasticity for five countries in Asian region, China, India, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. We use ARDL(Autoregressive Distributed Lag)model and Granger causality test to find the interrelationship among oil consumption, real oil price and real Gross Domestic Product over the period 1985-2009.
The empirical results indicate that the long-run price elasticity of oil in India, South Korea and Japan is -0.2522, -0.5079 and -0.2602 respectively and long-run income elasticity of oil in Japan is 0.6486, followed by 0.7065 in China, 0.8842 in South Korea, 0.9372 in Taiwan and 0.9691 in India. There also exists unidirectional short-run and long-run causality running from economic growth to oil consumption in China, India, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan and only unidirectional short-run causality running from oil consumption to economic growth in China, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. This finding supports the view that the income elasticity for Asian countries is higher than the income elasticity for OECD countries, like Japan. In addition, the oil consumption is found to have positive effects on the economy. This is because the enormous use of oil in sectors like the industry may have directly pushed the economy.
|
| 參考文獻 |
Altinay, G. and E. Karagol, 2005. Electricity consumption and economic growth: evidence from Turkey. Energy Economics 27,849–856.
Asafu-Adjaye, J., 2000. The relationship between energy consumption, energy prices and economic growth: time series evidence from Asian developing countries. Energy Economics 22, 615–625.
Cooper, J.C.B., 2003. Price elasticity of demand for crude oil: estimates for 23 countries. OPEC Review 27, 1–8
Dickey, D. and W. Fuller ,1979. Distribution of The Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series. Journal of the American Statistical Association 74, 427–431.
Dickey, D. A. and W. A. Fuller ,1981. Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society 49, 1057-1072.
Engle, R.F.and C.W.J. Granger, 1987. Co-integration and error-correction: Representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society 55 (2), 251–276.
Ghosh,S.,2009.Import demand of crude oil and economic growth :evidence from India. Energy Policy 37(2009),699-702
Glasure, Y.U., A. Lee, 1998. Cointegration, error-correction, and the relationship between GDP and energy: the case of South Korea and Singapore. Resource Energy Economics. 20, 17–25.
Granger, C. W. J., 1969. Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Model and Cross-spectral Methods. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society 37: 424-438.
Granger, C. and P. Newbold, 1974. Superious Regression in Econometrics. Journal of Econometrics 2, 111-120.
Kraft, J. and A. Kraft, 1978. On the relationship between energy and GNP. Journal of Energy Development 3, 401–403.
Krichene, N., 2002. World crude oil and natural gas: a demand and supply model. Energy Economics 24, 557-576.
Krichene, N., 2005. A simultaneous equations model for world crude oil and natural gas markets. International Monetary Fund. IMF Working Paper WP/05/32. Washington, DC.
Lee, CC and CP.Chang, 2008. Energy consumption and economic growth in Asian economies: a more comprehensive analysis using panel data. Resource Energy Economics 2008;30(1):50–65
Mehrara M. Energy consumption and economic growth: the case of oil exporting countries. Energy Policy 2007;35(5):2939–45.
Narayan, P.K.and R. Smyth, 2007. A panel cointegration analysis of the demand for oil in the Middle East. Energy Policy 35, 6258-6265.
Narayan, P.K.and P. Wong, 2009. A panel data analysis of the determinants of oil consumption: the case of Australia. Applied Energy 86, 2771-2775.
Nelson, C. R. and C.I. Plosser, 1982. Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series: Some Evidence and Implications. Journal of Monetary Economics 10: 139-162.
Oh W and K. Lee,2004. Causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP revisited: the case of Korea 1970–1999. Energy Economics 2004;26(1):51–59.
Ozturk and A. Acaravci, 2010. The causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP in Albania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania: evidence from ARDL bound testing approach, Applied Energy 87, 1938–1943.
Pesaran, M.H., R. Smith, T. Akiyama, 1998. Energy demand in Asian economies. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
Pesaran, MH, Y. Shin, RJ. Smith,2001. Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics,16:289–326.
Phillips, P. C. B. and P. Perron,1988. Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression, Biometrika 75: 335-346.
Vita, G.D., K. Endresen, L.C. Hunt, 2006. An empirical analysis of energy demand in Namibia. Energy Policy 34, 3447-3463.
Wolde-Rufael, Y., 2005. Energy demand and economic growth: the African experience. Journal of Policy Modeling 27,891–903.
Yang, H.Y., 2000. A note on the causal relationship between energy and GDP in Taiwan. Energy Economics 22, 309–317.
Ziramba, Emmanuel, 2010. Price and Income Elasticities of Crude Oil Import Demand in South Africa: A Cointegration Analysis. Energy Policy, 38, 7844-7849.
Zou and K.W. Chau, 2006. Short- and Long-run effects between oil consumption and economic growth in China, Energy Policy 34, 3644–3655.
|
[Endnote RIS 格式]
[相關文章]
[文章引用]
[完整記錄]
[館藏目錄]
至系統瀏覽論文 ( 永不開放)
plurk
funp
live
udn
HD
myshare
netvibes
friend
youpush
delicious
baidu
Google bookmarks
del.icio.us
hemidemi
facebook
twitter
google
reddit