| 摘要(英) |
The purpose of this study to investigate the effective evidence of the domestic listed companies, OTC and Emerging Stock Company financial crisis early warning mode Evidence of the effectiveness of the predictive ability of the international financial tsunami period. The study focused on the early warning system established during the financial crisis of enterprise financial crisis information, whether able to cope with the crisis outside the predictive ability of the samples during the financial crisis. Financial indicators and financial indicators of the company’’s credit rating and overall economic factors and two-line content of the explanatory variables were be used in this study, during the study period from 2005 to the end of 2008, the annual financial information or the overall economic data was the main, and during the study divided into the two main periods, non-financial tsunami period (estimation period: 2004 to 2006) and the financial tsunami (of-sample forecast period: 2008). Secondly, the second half of 2006 degrees to the financial crisis occurred between the 2007 non-financial stocks and the matching sample companies totaling 64 estimates during the sample companies, used as the construction of corporate financial distress prediction model. In addition, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, and Wilcoxon test, nonparametric statistical methods, and Logit regression analysis method were used to an empirical analysis.
Finally, through the financial turmoil to financial crises and non-financial crisis, a totaling of 52 listed counters and emerging companies, established four financial crisis early-warning model for the evaluation of sample forecasting ability, it is found that suggested using the liability to asset ratio, long-term funds to fixed assets ratio, return on equity and earnings per share four financial indicators variables and then add the stock (abnormal returns) information, and with a longer period of data to construct the early warning model to do the financial turmoil of samples outside the prediction model is more appropriate, because of the financial crisis occurred the year before (2007), the crisis of its early warning model to identify up to 79.17%; misjudgment rate of 30.43%, with a good crisis identification rate and false positive rate. In addition, the study also found that the only stock the economic factors will relate to the incident of the company financial crises; economic data and the rate of economic growth, unemployment, interest rates, inflation rates and the economy indicators of financial crises has nothing to do.
Keywords: Financial Crises; Logit Regression Model; Financial Ratios; Macroeconomic Variables; Predictability
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| 參考文獻 |
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