| dc.description.abstract | Development of the construction industry in Indonesia continues to grow up, therefore many foreign construction companies want to participate. However, the value of foreign direct investment realization during 2010 until 2013 is decreased from $618,4 million to $353,7 million. It’s happening because of schedule delays affecting the level of confidence by a foreign company in the construction industry in Indonesia. Previous researches showed that 83% of the delay causes in Indonesia’s construction projects are within the contractor’s control (non excusable delays). Those previous studies attempted to identify delay causes using Relative Importance Index (RII) without advanced analysis to prove whether the causes were significantly affecting delay or not. If the solution only based on the RII ranking, it could have some shortages especially for cause-effect relationship for such causes. So that, this study tries to identify the significant non-excusable delay causes based on statistical analysis then proposes the solutions using probability models by Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). The research results show that there are 23 significant causes contributing in West of Indonesia, 28 causes in Central of Indonesia, and 34 causes in East of Indonesia. Moreover, this research identifies that the most affecting causes are labor productivity (probability: 0,3323), cost estimation errors (0,3267) and poor monitoring and control between supervision and labor (0,3092) in West of Indonesia. In the Central of Indonesia, the top-three affecting causes are social cultural problems (0,4667), lack of subcontractor’s skill (0,3403), and disturbance public activities (0,3400). Whereas in East of Indonesia, lack of subcontractor’s skill (0,3911), poor means contracting (0,3600) and poor monitoring and control between supervision and labor (0,3556) are the most affecting delay causes. In this research, identified non-excusable delay causes are also compared with the resutls from other developing countries that have the same economy level to Indonesia. The identified delay causes, even by different project types, are similar to those in other developing countries. Furthermore, this study employs Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) to predict the value of occurrence probability of non-excusable delay. Through examining by case sudy, the delay forecasting is similar with the actual percentage of time-overrun in each case study. In sum, the research results provide possible solutions to prevent construction schedule delays in Indonesia. | en_US |