Due to the intense growth of industrialization in many developing countries, import substitution occurs from consumption good to intermediate goods. Thus, the focus of this study is in China, a country has high economic growth in late 40 years, and to view if import substitution occurs in China, in which industries, and if has positive influence on economic growth.
In the study, we refer to Input-Output Table to analyze the reason of the economic growth in China. It is found that the economic growth and output in China simultaneously rise from 1996 to 2001 mainly because of government investment growth(32.01%)、investment growth (33.09%)、export growth(39.45%); From 2001-2006 the growth was mainly due to output expansion, but the growth of GDP was not as high as that of output as a result of the decrease in rate of added value. The element led to the output growth is export growth(61.40 %)、investment growth(49.60 %)、consumption recession(- 31.02 % ); From 2006 to 2011, GDP rose as high as output, and the output growth was mainly due to investment growth(59.66 %)、intermediate use(14.16%)、government investment growth(14.68%)、export growth(12.57%).
Among all the factors written above, the vital factor related to import substitution the most is the downscaling of import of intermediate goods. From 1996 to 2001, the downscaling of import of intermediate goods had a 6.95% of influence upon the GDP growth, while the influence turned up to 11.85% from 2001 to 2006, and turned up to 14.16% in our last study. The increase was not on a large scale, but the influence is apparently upward. Moreover, the most vital contribution of our analysis is the phenomenon of the domestic intermediate use rising, which is rising to 75.51%.
We take a further step to discuss import substitution from the industries using intermediate goods during 2006-2009, and it is proved to have the highest probabilities of using intermediate goods from intermediate input in manufacturing and other final demand in manufacturing. The level of import substitution is listed in accordance with their probabilities.
(1) ＂for intermediate use in manufacturing＂ in industry itself.
(2) ＂other final expenses in manufacturing＂ in industry itself.
(3) ＂intermediate use in manufacturing＂ in ＂services.＂
(4) ＂Textile and footwear＂ in industry itself.
(5) ＂final expenditures for other manufacturing＂ in ＂services.＂
(6) ＂intermediate use in manufacturing＂ in ＂other final expenses for manufacturing.＂
(7) ＂fixed capital formation in manufacturing＂ in industry itself.
(8) ＂fixed capital formation in manufacturing＂ in ＂other final expenses for manufacturing.＂
(9) ＂the manufacturing sector fixed capital formation＂ in ＂for intermediate use in
(10) ＂fixed capital formation in manufacturing＂ in ＂services.＂
In the analysis, 95% of the manufacturing has phenomenon of import substitution. It proves import substitution was common in the manufacturing from 2006 to 2009 in China. The phenomenon of import substitution may result from policy or product competitiveness.||en_US|