| dc.description.abstract | The capacity of wind power and solar photovoltaic power will account for more than 80% of all renewable energy in 2030, according to the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy 2016 renewable energy development policy. These two renewable energies will play an important role in the future power supply system. Therefore, the aim of this study is to assess the role of these two energy sources and to explore whether wind and solar power can become a stable source of electricity for Taiwan in the future power supply systems.
In this study, the WRF model was first used to simulate the wind field in 2030. The simulation results were then used to calculate the magnitude and spatial distribution of offshore wind power generation in 2030 by using Windographer software. The estimated annual generation of offshore wind power by 2030 is 11343 GWh, of which the average monthly power generation in winter and summer is 1000 to 1500 GWh and 500 to 600 GWh, respectively. In the course of a day, the hourly change in wind power generated by off-shore wind power was relatively steady. In the afternoon, the wind power generation was high, with an average generating capacity of 470 MWh. For solar photovoltaic, this study estimates the solar photovoltaic power generation in 2030 by the solar radiation data provided by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The estimated annual generation of solar photovoltaic power in 2030 is 11367 GWh, the average generating capacity of solar photovoltaic in the summer months can reach 1300 GWh. In winter months the solar power generation is only about half of that in summer months. For the hourly variation in the day, the solar power generation reaches to the maximum of about 3.5 GWh during 11 a.m.- 2 p.m.
This study evaluates the stability of the power system in terms of annual, monthly, and hourly power generation and assesses the balance of future supply and demand of power systems. According to the current energy policy of the government, the estimated annual percent reserve margin (PRM) can reach 15% or more in annual power generation. The monthly estimated PRM cannot reach 15% in 2019-2024, especially only 8.8% in 2024 , estimated PRM during summer rush hours, 2 to 3 p.m., ranging from -1% to 10% between 2017 and 2030 and below zero in 2024 ,estimated percent reserve margin of -0.9 %.
This study also discusses the stability of future power systems based on the progress of solar photovoltaic and offshore wind power projects set at 25%, 50% and 75%, respectively. In terms of annual or monthly power generation, the estimated annual and monthly PRM are the lowest in 2024, even at 75%, estimated monthly percent reserve margin in 2024 is only 7.8%, estimated monthly PRM for other years are up to 15%. In the summer rush hours, 2 to 3p.m., for the progress of 25%, 50%, and 75% the estimated PRM in 2017-2030 cannot reach 15%. When the progress of 25%, there will be power shortage problems in 2021-2024, estimated PRM of -1.1%, -2.1%, -1.4% and -6.2%. When the progress is 50%, the 2022 and 2024 have a power shortage problem, estimated PRM are -0.7% and -4.4%, respectively. At 75%, there is only a shortage of electricity in 2024, estimated PRM of -2.7%. This shows how important the completion of renewable energy project is.
If the first, second, and third nuclear power plants extended service to 2030, the estimated annual or monthly PRM can still reach 15% no matter the of progress of renewable energy projects is 25%, 50% or 75%. However, when we consider the summer rush hour at the progress of 25%, the estimated PRM ranged from 2% to 15%, lowest, 2.9%, in 2017, only exceeding or approaching 15% at progress of 50% and 75%, in 2025 and 2030, and between 3 ~ 10% in other years. If the solar photovoltaic and offshore wind projects are completed on schedule, plus the first, second, and third nuclear power plants extended service to 2030, the hourly PRM can reach 15% during summer rush hours from 2025 to 2030 and from 5 to 11% for other years. If the first, second, third, and fourth nuclear power plants are enabled during 2017-2030 plus solar photovoltaic and offshore wind engineering settings are completed on schedule, the estimated summer rush hour PRM is up to 15% in 2018 and 2023-2030 and range from 12% to 14% in other years. Therefore, in addition to wind energy and solar photovoltaic, looking for the other renewable energy besides or using nuclear power will ensure sufficiency of power generation before 2030. | en_US |