博碩士論文 110322039 完整後設資料紀錄

DC 欄位 語言
DC.contributor土木工程學系zh_TW
DC.creator幸伃晴zh_TW
DC.creatorYu-Qing Xingen_US
dc.date.accessioned2023-6-5T07:39:07Z
dc.date.available2023-6-5T07:39:07Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.identifier.urihttp://ir.lib.ncu.edu.tw:88/thesis/view_etd.asp?URN=110322039
dc.contributor.department土木工程學系zh_TW
DC.description國立中央大學zh_TW
DC.descriptionNational Central Universityen_US
dc.description.abstract台灣位於兩個活動板塊的交界,東南方為菲律賓海板塊,西北方為歐亞大陸板塊,因此地震頻繁,而地震造成許多建築物破損以及生命財產的損失,同時也引發土壤液化,使得國人對於土壤液化意識逐漸提高。而為了要評估液化危害的程度,Iwasaki et al. [1]提出液化潛能指數(LPI)的三種液化危害等級,但因為液化危害的分類無法量化,且其他學者提出的液化潛能危害度有不同的評分,所以也沒有一個標準的值。因此本研究主旨將土壤液化之機率由分類變成定量的標準,並選取台北之鑽孔資料,以及所要進行研究之斷層為山腳斷層,並在分析過程中加入了強地動預估式(GMPE),將推估出的地震動大小代入研究區域內,並在指定之年限裡面去計算出土壤液化之機率。 本研究所要探討的地點為台北地區,斷層為山腳斷層,而我們計算方法是利用一種基於時間變化下的土壤液化機率之定值法。該方法是參考了Liao et al. [2]所提出了液化機率(PL),並利用台灣的509個液化案例,開發出一個新適合用於台灣本地的液化機率模型,且在計算時我們不考慮變量之不確定性來進行時間相關的分析。最後我們使用此方法,對台北地區進行了案例研究,並計算在未來25、50、100、...、1000年下地震發生之土壤液化機率。 本研究之目的為基於時間下的土壤液化機率評估,計算出的液化機率為一個實際的值,並不是以一個分類的結果來呈現,因為分類結果較不能確定液化的機率,且也不能確實表明此地區真實液化的情況。由於風險評估的定義為機率乘以發生事件的後果,因此所計算出來的土壤液化機率即表示在未來可進行更進一步之風險評估。zh_TW
dc.description.abstractTaiwan is located at the boundary of the Philippine Sea Plate and the Eurasian Plate, earthquakes caused many buildings to be damaged and loss of life and property. They also trigger soil liquefaction, leading to an increasing awareness among the public about this phenomenon. To evaluate liquefaction hazard, Iwasaki et al. [1] proposed three levels of liquefaction hazard based on the Liquefaction Potential Index (LPI). However, the classification of liquefaction hazard cannot be quantified and other scholars have proposed different ratings for liquefaction potential hazard, there is no standard value for it. Therefore, the study is to transform the probability of soil liquefaction from a classification to a quantitative standard and use the data from the Taipei area and the Sanchiao fault for analysis. The analysis will also incorporate Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPE) to estimate the size of ground motion and calculate the probability of soil liquefaction within the specified timeframe. The study is used for calculating soil liquefaction probability on a time-based deterministic method, based on the liquefaction probability (PL) proposed by Liao et al. [2], and used 509 liquefaction cases in Taiwan to develop a new liquefaction probability model suitable for local conditions, and we did not consider the uncertainty of variables to conduct time-related analysis. Finally, we used this method to conduct a case study in Taipei and calculated the probability of soil liquefaction in the next 25, 50, 100, ..., and 1000 years after an earthquake. The study is to evaluate soil liquefaction probability based on time. The calculated liquefaction probability is an actual value, which is different from classification results that cannot determine the probability of liquefaction. Risk assessment is defined as the probability multiplied by the consequences of an event, the calculated probability of soil liquefaction means that further risk assessment can be carried out in the future.en_US
DC.subject土壤液化zh_TW
DC.subject台灣台北地區zh_TW
DC.subject羅吉斯回歸模型zh_TW
DC.subject定值法zh_TW
DC.subjectSoil liquefactionen_US
DC.subjectTaipei areaen_US
DC.subjectLogistic regression modelen_US
DC.subjectDeterministic methoden_US
DC.title考慮不同時間跨度下的台北土層液化機率zh_TW
dc.language.isozh-TWzh-TW
DC.type博碩士論文zh_TW
DC.typethesisen_US
DC.publisherNational Central Universityen_US

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