| dc.description.abstract | Sustainable development of water resources must conform to the whole benefit of the resources used. An important approach to this target is making use of regional operation and management. This study developed a system indexes, namely drought index, shortage index and sufficient index, by means of the concept of regional operation and management. Due to the factors of topography, weather and human culture, the demand of water resources is different among every region in Taiwan. The sufficient index, which base on the concept of maintaining the balance of supply and demand, provides a better management insight when water resources are in deficit.
Furthermore, this study proposed the sufficient index of water resources for the water demand areas on Central and Southern Taiwan to predict the occurrence of a possible drought. Statistical analysis was conducted to identify a hydrologic drought year. In Taiwan, water supply mainly depends on rainfall. However, the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall is highly irregular. There are different kinds of exploitation for rainfall between upstream and downstream. Rainfall, which is the principal referring factor of the drought index in this study, is kept in the reservoirs in upstream and promptly irrigates the corps especially in drought period in downstream. Besides rainfall, the factors, which response to the shortage situation, are reservoir storage, flow rate and groundwater. Due to the fact that the groundwater level makes only small alteration, only reservoir storage, flow rate and rainfall were concerned in the supply of water resources. These three factors are standardized and weighted to estimate shortage index. The sufficient index is mainly concerned about the concept of the balance between water supply and water demand. The probability of drought, which forecasts whether drought continues or not in upstream area and downstream area, in wet and dry spell is also calculated in this study. The results show that the index system proposed in this study can quantify the shortage of water and the deficit level of drought. | en_US |