| dc.description.abstract | DRAM plays a central role in the electronics industry due to its wide spread applications in various products like PC, mobile phone, optical disk drive, digital camera, printer, digital TV, etc. For the past two decades, prices of IC chips are subjected to the inevitable descending trend following the principle of Moore’s Law. However, DRAM differs from general ICs with its severe short-term price volatility due to various reasons. As a result, predicting the price of DRAM chips becomes an important problem in the industry.
This study attempts to statistically explain the variability of the DRAM prices through a series of stepwise multiple regression analysis. Multiple data items were collected on a monthly basis. These primarily include DRAM prices (both spot and contract), supply and demand volumes. To make a better prediction, analysis are conducted for various types of DRAM, namely DDR, DDRII and SDRAM. Global DRAM supply/demand were taken into account to quantify the underlying forces behind the price fluctuations.
Our study shows a close tie between DRAM price fluctuation with sufficiency, which is defined as the difference between supply and demand, which is reflected in the market as glut or shortage. This association is especially obvious in the cases of DDR and DDR2, which are highly reliance on the PC industry. In addition, results also reveals that the monthly changes in DRAM price is also highly related to the sufficiency construct.
Keywords: DRAM, DDR, DDR2, SDRAM, Spot price, contract price, supply, demand, sufficiency stepwise multiple regression analysis | en_US |