| dc.description.abstract | Based on the current phenomena of the Taiwan industries, it is apparent that the order delivery time has been severely compressed to meet customer demand. A straight forward solution may end up with serious inventory problems. In order to solve the problem, “rolling forecast” has been widely employed to cope with the problem, such that materials can be prepared in advance. However, there is a dearth in academic research on this issue. This research started out with an investigation on the issue of rolling forecast applications in the Taiwan industry. Subsequently, the computer simulation method was used to study the problem on hand. A two echelons supply chain with one focal supplier and one customer, where deliver time is shorter than upstream supplier lead time was assumed. Through order information sharing and minimizing total inventory cost, the simulation experiments investigated the impact of safety stock, lead time and different inventory and out of stock cost proportion.
Many scenarios were included in the simulation study, including forecast bias forecast error, out of stock penalty, and inventory replenishment strategies. In conclusion, we found out that in different forecast error and forecast bias settings, the companies have to choose adaptable strategy and shorten the upstream lead time. Moreover, different industries have to adjust their replenishment strategies to improve their supply chain performance. | en_US |