| dc.description.abstract | In order to foresight the configuration of future light electric vehicle, the characteristics, battery system, indeed needed technologies included in and the way to use or operate the light electric vehicle are researched and explored. The Vision, Linkage Analysis Planning, Markov Chain and Scenario Planning are integrated and used to distinguish clearly types of the timable transition of factors: changeless, changeable (trend), disappeared, and uncertain states, and the “Markov Transition Scenario Planning” method of Foresight Analysis is constructed.
After analysis, the key decision factors of future light electric vehicle are “the appearance of styles”, “the battery system”, “the operating system”, “parking assistant system” and “active safety system”. Use the concepts of the timable states of transition of Markov Chain, and found the uncertain states of the key decision factors which are “autopilot system”, “fuel cell”, “flexible wheelbase”, and “four-wheel steer (parallel parking)”. The 16 scenarios are developed according to the uncertain states of the key decision factors of realizable optimistic condition and non-realizable pessimistic condition, and in which 3 particular scenarios are described to provide the ways to develop the related technologies, and let government, industries, and related research centers become aware of the trend of “lithium ion battery” and “active safety system”, and enforce these organizations to invest in the related infrastructures, research and development, so consequently the future city life and the light electric vehicle could be earlier realizable. Through the aspects of trigger points, whether the factors of uncertain states are on anticipate possible routes could be determined, as a basis to judge whether invest funding and research or not.
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