| dc.description.abstract | Due to the unique geographic conditions, Taiwan is an area where frequent natural catastrophes occur. Whenever summer turns to autumn, the attacks of typhoon often lead to floods. The losses caused by typhoon in recent years grow with each event. Among all typhoon events, the Morakot typhoon in 2009 is the typical case, which brought about at least USD 3,400 million of the total loss. This proves that to build a sound Typhoon/Flood Risk Assessment Model is very important.
Until now, throughout the world, many experts and scholars have established the Typhoon/Flood Risk Assessment Models. As a whole, it generalize many subjects, such as Typhoon/flood events database, Flood Hazard Module, Vulnerability Analysis and Financial Analysis Module etc, Nevertheless, the adopted Taiwan typhoon/flood event database are based on historical events. According to the typhoon database that Center Weather Bureau issued typhoon warnings, it is slightly insufficient to have 239 typhoon and flood events in the record from 1961 to 2010. Furthermore, because of the climate change, the maximum rainfall that caused by recent typhoons sometimes exceed the historical records. This situation can’t be taken in consideration if merely standing on historical events.
In order to improve the above problems, this research refers to the essential historical events, to proceed stochastic rainfall events based on the statistic model of log-normal distribution and the rainfall correlation of each basin. Moreover, this research provides an example to present the results of risk assessment under different event database.
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