| dc.description.abstract | In this study, I use the concepts of “iso- seismic intensity and equal- population intervals to establish the mortality curve of Chi- Chi earthquake. From the curve, we can find the relation between the human- fatalities and strong motion data (PGA). Then I establish an error interval of the curve, making the mortality curve be more reasonable, and proceed to estimate and verify the death population of towns.
During the research process, finding no matter which equal-population interval is, the mortality curves are similar such as 200 thousand, 100 thousand, 50 thousand, 25 thousand and 12.5 thousand. So we can use the equal- population interval is 12.5 thousand to represent the mortality curve of Chi- Chi earthquake. And because the more than 50% data points concentrate on PGA be smaller than 200 gals. If we omit this part data, the regression curve will be still the same. For making the regression curve is more reliable, I use the prediction model of statistics. The prediction band includes a large percent of data, nevertheless, the band will make negative mortalities, it’s not reasonable. For this reason, I calculate the coefficient of variation of curve to establish an error interval. The error interval is more reliable and accurate than prediction interval.
From the distribution of points, there are some freak points. Therefore I do some discussion about these strange data. And find the main reason is the collapse of mud- bricks and apartment buildings caused the high human- fatalities.
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