| dc.description.abstract | This paper aims to discuss the influence of climate change in Cho-Shui river basin. First, Cho-Shui river basin was divided into mountainous regions and level ground according to the landform of the area. The difference and tendency changed monthly rainfall was studied by frequency analysis and tendency test. Second, first-order transition probability matrix by Markov chain theory was built, and monthly rainfall in the next three months was predicted. Lastly, rainfall parameter by tendency test result was estimated and simulating the climate pattern in the future ten years.
Based on the analysis result, there are significant differences between mountainous regions and level ground. The rainfall in the mountainous regions is 1.6 times the level ground. The reasons of the differences are the influencing factors, rainfall intensity and rainfall probability, acting simultaneously. On monthly rainfall by frequency analysis, it is found that Three-Parameter Log-normal Distribution was adequate in every month. It can be discovered obviously by tendency test result that both total rainfall and rainfall intensity increase in July, the dry season raining days decreased in the level ground. On the two climate forecast cases, the total rainfall all increased slightly, but there is difference between wet season and dry season in rainfall display. In case 1, it will increase the degree of drought in the future ten years. In case 2, there will be higher rainfall in the dry season in the future ten years.
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