DC 欄位 值 語言 DC.contributor 企業管理學系 zh_TW DC.creator 卓佩臻 zh_TW DC.creator Pei-Jhen Jhuo en_US dc.date.accessioned 2010-6-21T07:39:07Z dc.date.available 2010-6-21T07:39:07Z dc.date.issued 2010 dc.identifier.uri http://ir.lib.ncu.edu.tw:88/thesis/view_etd.asp?URN=974201059 dc.contributor.department 企業管理學系 zh_TW DC.description 國立中央大學 zh_TW DC.description National Central University en_US dc.description.abstract 本研究以「馬可夫轉換情境規劃法」作為情境規劃的前瞻方法，窺探高齡者適用於居家生活與短程代步的智慧型行動輔具可能樣貌，高齡者會如何操控行動輔具，行動輔具會採用何種動力來源，以及需要具備之功能。 經過研究分析，未來智慧型行動輔具的關鍵決策因素為：「有座式」、「無座式」、「完全被動」、「使用者操控」、「自主行為」、「蓄電池」、「燃料電池」、「汽油」、「環境感知」、「行動能力」、「駕駛意識」、「人因設計」、「生理量測」、「網路應用」與「影音娛樂」十五個構面所包含之因素。以馬可夫鏈之時間狀態轉移觀點，呈現智慧型行動輔具關鍵決策因子之未來轉變，整理出不確定狀態之關鍵決策因素為：自動駕駛、燃料電池、二氧化碳轉化汽油、駕駛意識與網路應用。先以馬可夫鏈不變狀態之關鍵決策因素描繪出情境發展之背景，再納入變易狀態、不確定狀態之關鍵決策因素，劃分為基礎情境－情境背景、進階情境－易於實現、實驗情境－研發階段、突破情境－發展不確定、挑戰情境－未知可能等五種情境組合。更透過建立監視觸發點之觀念，協助相關研究單位或產業業者判斷是否在預期的可能發展路徑上，以決定是否投資資金進行研發。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract This study use “Markov Transition Scenario Planning” method to Scenario Analysis, Foresight the smart mobility aids appearance, control method, power source, necessary functions for elder. After analysis, the key decision factors of future smart mobility aids are “Have seat”, “No seat”, “Completely passive”, “User control”, “Autonomous behavior”, “Battery”, “Fuel cells”, “Gasoline”, “Situational awareness”, “Mobility”, “Driving awareness”, “Ergonomic design”, “Physiological Measurement”, “Network application” and “Video Entertainment” fifteen Dimension include factors. Use the concepts of the timable states of transition of Markov Chain, and found the uncertain states of the key decision factors which are “autopilot”, “fuel cell”, “CO2 convert to oil”, “Driving awareness”, and “Network application”. Use key decision factors of Markov changeless state describes the scenario background, then adds key decision factors of Markov changeable (trend) state and uncertain state dividing into five portfolio: basis scenario, advance scenario, Experiment scenario, Breakthrough scenario and Challenge scenario. Through the aspects of trigger points, whether on anticipate possible routes could be determined, as a basis to judge whether invest funding and research or not. en_US DC.subject 馬可夫鏈 zh_TW DC.subject 情境規劃法 zh_TW DC.subject 智慧型行動輔具 zh_TW DC.subject 高齡者 zh_TW DC.subject elder en_US DC.subject Markov Chain en_US DC.subject Scenario Planning en_US DC.subject Smart Mobility Aids en_US DC.title 智慧型行動輔具之情境規劃 zh_TW dc.language.iso zh-TW zh-TW DC.title Scenario Planning of Smart Mobility Aids en_US DC.type 博碩士論文 zh_TW DC.type thesis en_US DC.publisher National Central University en_US