| DC 欄位 |
值 |
語言 |
| DC.contributor | 大氣物理研究所 | zh_TW |
| DC.creator | 陳冠儒 | zh_TW |
| DC.creator | Guan-Ru Chen | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2010-7-26T07:39:07Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2010-7-26T07:39:07Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2010 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://ir.lib.ncu.edu.tw:88/thesis/view_etd.asp?URN=976201008 | |
| dc.contributor.department | 大氣物理研究所 | zh_TW |
| DC.description | 國立中央大學 | zh_TW |
| DC.description | National Central University | en_US |
| dc.description.abstract | Kidder et al.(2005)所提出熱帶氣旋降雨潛勢(Tropical Rainfall Potential Technique, TRaP)方法可用以迅速估計颱風的累積降雨分佈，以利及早預警防災。由於TRaP並未考量影響颱風降雨甚鉅的地形效應，故若要應用TRaP於山脈高聳的台灣地區，則需進一步考量颱風降雨受到環流與地形、環境風場間交互作用的影響，才能更為精準地估算降雨分佈，此即為本研究的主要目的。
本研究以TRaP理論為基礎，且分別針對「降雨分佈」、「降雨總量變化」，及「環境風場輻合效應」三個部份進行修正，並將地形效應納入TRaP的計算模式，以改進其降雨潛勢預報之精準度。本研究以SSM/I微波資料配合TRaP方法估算颱風降雨，再與中央氣象局自動測站實測降量雨進行驗證。結果顯示本研究改進後的降雨估算精度較原始TRaP方法有顯著的提昇，在22個非獨立颱風個案的雨量估算值與測站實測值的相關係數由0.07改善為0.66，RMSE由196.4mm減低至130.8mm，平均測站降雨為195.4mm；另外在2009年莫拉克颱風獨立個案的驗證結果也顯示效果良好，相關係數由0.37提昇為0.91，RMSE則由497.0mm下降到297.2mm，而平均測站降雨為666.4mm。本研究的結果顯示，在估算台灣地區颱風的降雨潛勢時，需考量地形與環境風效應，始能獲得準確之降雨估算。
| zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract | The Tropical Rainfall Potential (TRaP) technique presented by Kidder et al. in 2005 is a useful method for the weather forecasters to predict the accumulated rainfalls by typhoons. One of the original TRaP’’s main shortcomings is its lack of considering the influence of topography, but the interaction between Taiwan’’s high mountains and typhoon circulations is a very important factor for the typhoon rainfall distribution. So it’s very crucial to take account of the terrain effect for the application of the TRaP method in Taiwan.
This study is based on the TRaP technique but is considered the terrain effect with three ways: “Rainfall re-distributing ”, “Total rainfall re-adjusting”, and “Environment wind classifying”. This study used SSM/I-derived rainfalls to construct the TRaP and estimate new rainfall patterns, and then were validated with by CWB automatic rainfall station observations. The results show the improved TRaP technique indeed could obtain a much better performance than the original TRaP. For 22 dependent cases, the mean correlation coefficient increases from 0.07 to 0.66 and the RMSE decreases form 196.4mm to 130.8mm. The mean of gauge rainfall is 196.4mm. For typhoon Morakot in 2009, the correlation increases from 0.37 to 0.91and the RMSE decreases form 497.0mm to 297.2mm. The mean of gauge rainfall is 666.4mm. It shows that TRaP technique can be significantly improved by considering the terrain effect and environment wind convection in Taiwan area.
| en_US |
| DC.subject | 颱風 | zh_TW |
| DC.subject | 熱帶氣旋降雨潛勢 | zh_TW |
| DC.subject | 地形效應 | zh_TW |
| DC.subject | 降雨 | zh_TW |
| DC.subject | Typhoon | en_US |
| DC.subject | Terrain Effect | en_US |
| DC.subject | Rainfall | en_US |
| DC.subject | Tropical Rainfall Potential Technique | en_US |
| DC.title | 考量地形與環境風場輻合效應在改進TRaP估算侵台颱風降雨預報之研究 | zh_TW |
| dc.language.iso | zh-TW | zh-TW |
| DC.title | Improving Typhoon Rainfall Forecasting in Tropical Rainfall Potential Technique (TRaP) by Considering Taiwan’s Terrain Effect and Environment wind. | en_US |
| DC.type | 博碩士論文 | zh_TW |
| DC.type | thesis | en_US |
| DC.publisher | National Central University | en_US |