| DC 欄位 |
值 |
語言 |
| DC.contributor | 國際永續發展碩士在職專班 | zh_TW |
| DC.creator | 安德雷 | zh_TW |
| DC.creator | Andre David Williams | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2012-7-5T07:39:07Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2012-7-5T07:39:07Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2012 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://ir.lib.ncu.edu.tw:88/thesis/view_etd.asp?URN=993310602 | |
| dc.contributor.department | 國際永續發展碩士在職專班 | zh_TW |
| DC.description | 國立中央大學 | zh_TW |
| DC.description | National Central University | en_US |
| dc.description.abstract | 風能的利用年年激增,可以從例證：2000年的18.5億瓦（GW）到2010年199.5億瓦(GW)，得知它已成為今天增長最快的可再生能源的來(RES）。而負責這樣快速增長的催化驅動力，則主要是由於風力發電機組設計的技術進步和安裝成本的減少。風能的開發在已開發國家中被完全地協調與融合，它已成為其能源組成結構中的一個內在成分。然而，在加勒比海地區（CR）的小島嶼發展中國家，哪裡的條件極利於煽動風能的開發，其風能之利用卻是相當稀少。今日，在許多加勒比海地區（CR）的島嶼中，其中包括聖文森特和格林納丁斯（SVG），他們正在探索風能發展的前景。
本論文主旨在於評估：在聖文森特和格林納丁斯（SVG）風能發展的經濟和社會屬性。聖文森特和格林納丁斯（SVG）的政府的承諾之一則是在2015年時，電力部門的再生能源使用增加可達30％。因此，政府正計劃興建一座4兆瓦的風力電場，從而其經濟的評估則必須是重要傑出的，才能有利於評估其可行性。而該計畫方案中與經濟評估緊密相關的財務評估，就須採用成本效益分析的工具。此外，源自於此計畫中相較於傳統發電所獲得的更進一步的經濟利益，如：化石燃料的節省，溫室氣體排放的大幅銳減，操作和維護成本的降低等，都進行了評估。公眾對於風能開發的態度和接納，可能並不總是優先的：加上考量到SVG的面積狹小，這項研究仍然以風能開發的社會期望值為焦點。故為了激發民眾的喜好，並確定他們對於風力電場的支付意願（WTP），假設市場評價法應用於本研究。此外，還有一些無法測量比較的利益和成本，都是在考慮電能的來源決策時非常重要的；則採用多準則決策分析（MCDA）來合併評估。
該計畫的初始安裝成本估計在550萬美元，其淨現值為10.4900萬美元，而內部收益率為11％，則給任何一個開發商指引出一個可行的冒險投機企業。經濟評估顯示，目前的總成本價值達780萬美元，而擁有超過28年的漫長生命週期的這項計畫，其相稱的利益總額卻可達11億美元。或然估值分析法中指出，公眾對於風能的傾向是積極的，而且他們對於風力電場的接受度也很高。此外，所有支付卡的分析中結果顯示，受訪者都願意支付（WTP）電費1年中用每月11.50美元，來支付初始安裝成本。匯總到聖文森特和格林納丁斯（SVG）總戶數的價值收益可達530萬美元，與風力電場的初始安裝成本極為接近。為了進一步加強對風能開發的支持，多準則決策分析(MCDA)的加權總和法則指出，風能應作為首選的替代能源。
| zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract | The use of wind energy has ballooned over the year as exemplified by the accretion from 18.5 gigawatts (GW) in 2000 to 199.5 GW in 2010 making it one of the fastest growing renewable energy sources (RES) today. The main catalytic drivers responsible for this rapid growth are technological advances in wind turbine designs and reduction in the setup cost. Wind energy development is mainly concerted in the developed countries and it has become an intrinsic part of their energy mix. However, the use of wind energy is exiguous in small island developing states in the Caribbean region (CR) where conditions are conducive to foment wind energy development. Today, many of the islands in the CR, including Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG), are exploring the prospect of wind energy development.
This thesis aims to evaluate the economic and social attributes of wind energy development in SVG. One of the commitments by the Government of SVG is to increase the use of RES in the electricity sector to 30% by 2015. Consequently, the Government is planning to construct a 4 MW wind farm hence an economic evaluation is eminent to assess its viability. A financial assessment of the project is pertinent to the economic evaluation and hereof, the benefit-cost analysis tool was employed. In addition, further economic benefits to be derived from the project such as savings of fossil fuel, greenhouse gases abated, and the reduction in operation and maintenance cost compared to traditional power generation were evaluated. Public attitude and acceptance of wind energy development may not always be preferential and given the diminutive size of SVG, the research also focuses on the social desirability of wind energy development. To elicit the publics’ preferences and to ascertain their willingness to pay (WTP) for the wind farm, the Contingent Valuation Method was applied. Additionally, there are incommensurable benefits and cost which are vital to decision making when considering an energy source for electricity and the Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) was adopted to amalgamate them in the appraisement.
The initial setup cost of the project is estimated at US$5.5 million, with a net present value of US$104,900 (2013) and an internal rate of return of 11%, which designate a viable venture for any developer. The economic evaluation revealed that the present value of the total costs amounted to US$7.8 million while the commensurable benefits totalled US$28.8 million over the 20-year lifespan of the project. The analysis of the contingent valuation suggests that the public disposition to wind energy is positive and their acceptance of the wind farm is high. Furthermore, the payment card analysis showed that the respondents are WTP US$11.50 and US$10.39 a month for 1 year on their monthly electricity bill via the non-parametric and parametric approach respectively. This is equivalent to a present value of US$0.40 per kilowatt hour which is higher than the current cost of electricity of US$0.36. To further strengthen the support of wind energy development, the weighted sum method of the MCDA pointed to wind energy as the preferred alternative.
| en_US |
| DC.subject | 支付意願 | zh_TW |
| DC.subject | 成本效益分析 | zh_TW |
| DC.subject | 假設市場評價法 | zh_TW |
| DC.subject | 多準則決策分析 | zh_TW |
| DC.subject | 風能 | zh_TW |
| DC.subject | Benefit-Cost analysis | en_US |
| DC.subject | Contingent valuation method | en_US |
| DC.subject | Multi-criteria decision analysis | en_US |
| DC.subject | Wind energy | en_US |
| DC.subject | Willingness to pay. | en_US |
| DC.title | 加勒比海地區開發中國家發展風力發電之經濟評估：以聖文森的風力發電場計畫為例 | zh_TW |
| dc.language.iso | zh-TW | zh-TW |
| DC.title | An Economic Evaluation of Wind Energy Development in the Developing Caribbean Region: A Case Study of a Proposed Wind Farm Project in St. Vincent | en_US |
| DC.type | 博碩士論文 | zh_TW |
| DC.type | thesis | en_US |
| DC.publisher | National Central University | en_US |