The Impact of Unemployment on Crime in Europe

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黃羽慈(Yu-Tzu Huang) 查詢紙本館藏

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經濟學系

論文名稱

(The Impact of Unemployment on Crime in Europe)

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摘要(中)

本篇論文之主要目的為探討歐洲失業率對於犯罪影響。由過去獻提出本篇論文之主要目的為探討歐洲失業率對於犯罪影響。由過去獻提出本篇論文之主要目的為探討歐洲失業率對於犯罪影響。由過去獻提出率與犯罪存在內生性問題，因此本論文亦率與犯罪存在內生性問題，因此本論文亦率與犯罪存在內生性問題，因此本論文亦修正了失業率的內生性問題。失業率的內生性問題。我們使用了子技術偏向科成長技術偏向科成長技術偏向科成長技術偏向科成長技術偏向科成長技術偏向科成長技術偏向科成長技術偏向科成長的衡量變數的衡量變數的衡量變數的衡量變數的衡量變數作為失業率之工具變數，作為失業率之工具變數，作為失業率之工具變數，作為失業率之工具變數，作為失業率之工具變數，作為失業率之工具變數，作為失業率之工具變數，作為失業率之工具變數，作為失業率之工具變數，作為失業率之工具變數，作為失業率之工具變數，用以探討歐洲在探討歐洲在探討歐洲在探討歐洲在探討歐洲在 1993 年至 2009 年失業率對於犯罪之影響效果。除此之外，由於歐洲1999 年發行共同貨幣 – 歐元，本文亦考慮了經濟結合對於犯罪率之影響歐元，本文亦考慮了經濟結合對於犯罪率之影響歐元，本文亦考慮了經濟結合對於犯罪率之影響，此層面的討論在歐洲文獻，此層面的討論在歐洲文獻中屬於新的嘗試。嘗試。本文主要貢獻在於正確找出影響犯罪率的因素，分析在於正確找出影響犯罪率的因素，分析在於正確找出影響犯罪率的因素，分析失業率在歐洲犯罪率所扮演的角色，並的角色，並的角色，並尋找犯罪率決定方程式中，可以作為失業犯罪率決定方程式中，可以作為失業犯罪率決定方程式中，可以作為失業犯罪率決定方程式中，可以作為失業犯罪率決定方程式中，可以作為失業的工具變數，並控制了歐洲，並控制了歐洲經濟結合之影響。研究果結合之影響。研究果結合之影響。研究果發現，發現，失業率仍是財產犯罪中相當重要的因素，其中相當重要的因素，其中相當重要的因素，其影響效果從 2.3% 2.3% 至 12.7% ，遠高於美國文獻的發現，表示經濟因素是歐洲犯罪率非常不容忽視面向。遠高於美國文獻的發現，表示經濟因素是歐洲犯罪率非常不容忽視面向。失業率對暴力犯罪的影響則有正負，視暴力犯罪的種類而定其邊際效果則介於有正負，視暴力犯罪的種類而定其邊際效果則介於有正負，視暴力犯罪的種類而定其邊際效果則介於有正負，視暴力犯罪的種類而定其邊際效果則介於有正負，視暴力犯罪的種類而定其邊際效果則介於 -15% 至 10.3% 10.3% 之間。由之間。由之間。由實證結果也可發現，歐洲政府除了加強除了加強除了加強經濟狀況的提升經濟狀況的提升經濟狀況的提升經濟狀況的提升經濟狀況的提升之外，之外，嚇阻效果的加強也是個減少犯罪發生的有效方法。再者，使用共同貨幣所造成經濟結合對的有效方法。再者，使用共同貨幣所造成經濟結合對的有效方法。再者，使用共同貨幣所造成經濟結合對的有效方法。再者，使用共同貨幣所造成經濟結合對的有效方法。再者，使用共同貨幣所造成經濟結合對於歐洲犯罪率似乎並非主要的因素。

摘要(英)

The main purpose of this paper is investigating the impact of unemployment on crime in Europe. Due to the causality between unemployment and crime, we need to control for the problem of endogeneity in our empirical model. Therefore, I employ the 2SLS methodology by utilizing the SBTC variables as the instrumental variables to analyze the effect of unemployment on violent and property crime covering the period from 1993 to 2009. In addition to the effect of unemployment, I also consider the effect of the economic integration on crime rate. Different from existing literatures, I am devoted to finding the innovative instrumental variables for unemployment in order to obtain the intrinsic effect of economic integration on crime, which is new to the literature. The 2SLS result shows that unemployment has significantly positive effect on property crime with marginal effects ranging from 2.3 percent to 12.7 percent, which seems to be much larger than that in the U.S. In light of this, unemployment is still the key factor in determining the property crime rate. Unemployment also significantly affect violent crime with marginal effect ranging from -15.7 percent to 10.5 percent, depending on the type of crime. In addition to economic condition improvements, our empirical evidences also demonstrate that the reinforcement of the deterrence is an effective way to combat the crime problem in Europe. Moreover, the economic integration in terms of common currency plays a minor role in determining the crime rate in Europe.

關鍵字(中)

★ 失業率
★ 犯罪率
★ 歐洲聯盟經濟暨貨幣聯盟
★ 內生性

關鍵字(英)

★ unemployment
★ crime
★ EMU
★ endogeneity

論文目次

Abstract i
Acknowledgement iii
Contents iv
List of Tables v
List of Figures vi
1. Introduction 1
2. Background and Literature Review 5
2.1 Background 5
2.2 Literature Review 7
2.2.1 Theoretical Literature 7
2.2.2 European Literature 8
2.2.3 U.S. Literature 11
3. Econometric Model 15
3.1 Ordinary Least Squares Regression 15
3.2 Random and Fixed Effect 16
3.3 Two-Stage Least Squares Regression 17
4. Data 20
5. Empirical Results 28
5.1 Ordinary Least Squares Regression Results 28
5.2 Random and Fixed Effect Results 31
5.3 Endogeneity test and Two-Stage Least Squares Regression Results 33
5.4 Violent Crime 40
6. Conclusions 43
Reference 46
Appendix A 48
Appendix B 50
Appendix C 51
Appendix D 52
Appendix E 53
Appendix F 54
Appendix G 55
Appendix H 56

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指導教授

黃麗璇(Li-Hsuan Huang)

審核日期

2013-6-24

推文