台灣三大耗能產業能源效率變動趨勢分析 —能源生產力估計法之應用

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歐冠昕(Kuan-hsin Ou) 查詢紙本館藏

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產業經濟研究所

論文名稱

台灣三大耗能產業能源效率變動趨勢分析 —能源生產力估計法之應用

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摘要(中)

本研究從生產理論的觀點，採用Jin-Li Hu and Shih-Chuan Wang (2006)提出以資料包絡分析法(Data Envelopment Analysis, DEA)為基礎所提出的總要素能源效率(TFEE)指數，探討台灣1990年至2012年期間製造業三個能源消費量超過台灣總能耗量10%以上的三個中業別：基本金屬製造業、化學材料製造業、電腦通信與視聽電子產品製造業等三大耗能產業之能源效率發展趨勢與改善潛力。
研究目的包括：(1)探討三大耗能產業概況；(2)介紹常用以衡量能源效率與影響要素之經濟理論；(3)以傳統單要素能源效率、DEA、TFEE分析1990年至2012年三大耗能產業的能源效率與改善潛力。其中傳統能源效率即為單要素生產力之指數結果；DEA進一步同時考慮能源、勞動、資本存量等三投入要素與產業附加價值一產出；TFEE則透過DEA計算研究期間三大耗能產業個年度的能源最適投入目標，分析能源投入要素的差額(Slacks)與徑項(Radial)調整值，探討研究期間技術效率的變化。
研究結果發現如下：
(1) 三大耗能產業的能源結構皆以電力為主，其中化學材料製造業與基本金屬製造業在研究期間約維持於該產業之50-60%之間，電腦通信及視聽電子產品製造業於研究期間平均高達93%。而三大耗能產業對於原油及石油的使用皆呈現負斜率的下降趨勢。
(2) 以傳統能源效率指數、DEA模型、與TFEE模型為基礎之實證結果發現，三種指數在整體研究期間而言所估計出的趨勢大致相同，皆呈現正斜率之趨勢效果，顯示三大耗能產業的能源效率確實隨著時間而改善。
(3) TFEE模型針對DEA只能同時考慮多要素的最大收縮比例值做改進，以DEA模型基礎，進一步提出能源單一投入要素的最大收縮比例值。不僅改善DEA只能同時考慮多項投入投入的最大比例收縮值，亦保有DEA可同時分析多投入多產出的結果。提供研究學者於估計傳統能源效率時，可納入參考的指標。

摘要(英)

This study analyzes energy-use efficiency in Taiwanese top three energy consumption subsector of manufacturing sector during 1990-2012. The three industries are Chemical Materials Industries, Electrical and Electronic Machinery Industries, and Basic Metal Industries, respectively. The method of total factor energy efficiency (TFEE) based on Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) which is raised by Jin-Li Hu and Shih-Chuan Wang (2006) is utilized from a production theoretic perspective. In my DEA model, labor, capital stock, energy consumption are the three inputs and real GDP is the only output. The traditional energy productivity ratio and DEA model are computed for comparison in contrast to TFEE.
According to the industrial analysis, electricity of energy structures accounts for the majority of the three energy consumption industries. And also, negative slope of crude oil is observed. The empirical result shows that three approaches has similar trend lines. Energy efficiency of the three energy consumption industries improves over time. Further, TFEE model is found to be the most appropriate application for the real case.

關鍵字(中)

★ 能源生產力
★ 傳統能源效率
★ 資料包絡法
★ 總要素能源效率

關鍵字(英)

★ Energy Productively
★ Trational energy efficiency
★ Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA)
★ Total Factor Energy Efficiency (TFEE)

論文目次

中文摘要 i
Abstract iii
致謝 iv
圖目錄 ix
表目錄 xi
第壹章緒論 1
第一節研究動機與目的 1
第二節研究方法與步驟 6
第三節研究對象與範圍 8
一、產業分類基礎 8
二、耗能產業的選定 8
三、資料來源 12
第貳章台灣三大耗能產業之研析 13
第一節化學材料製造業現況簡介 13
一、定義與範圍 14
二、生產量指數 15
三、銷售量指數與產銷存概況 17
四、國際競爭力 19
第二節基本金屬製造業現況簡介 21
一、定義與範圍 22
二、生產量指數 23
三、銷售量指數與產銷存概況 25
四、國際競爭力 27
第三節電腦、電子產品及光學製品製造業現況簡介 29
一、定義與範圍 29
二、生產量指數 31
三、銷售量指數與產銷存概況 33
四、國際競爭力 35
第四節電子零組件製造業現況簡介 37
一、定義與範圍 37
二、生產量指數 39
三、銷售量指數與產銷存概況 41
四、國際競爭力 43
第五節三大耗能產業能源結構之探討 45
一、化學材料製造業之能源結構 45
二、基本金屬製造業之能源結構 47
三、電腦通信及視聽電子產品製造業之能源結構 49
第參章能源效率之經濟理念 51
第一節傳統能源效率指標與分解分析法 54
一、結構分解分析法(SDA) 55
二、指數分解分析法(IDA) 57
第二節資料包絡分析法 60
一、 DEA發展沿革 60
二、 DEA應用程序 62
三、 DEA模型基本概念 64
四、投入導向CRS-DEA (CCR模式) 66
五、投入導向VRS-DEA (BCC模式) 69
六、效率分析 71
七、總要素能源效率(TFEE) 72
第三節 DEA文獻回顧 74
第肆章實證模型分析 79
第一節樣本、數據和變數說明 79
第二節敘述統計與相關性分析 80
第三節實證結果 86
一、傳統能源效率指數 86
二、 CRS-DEA模型 89
三、 VRS-DEA模型 92
四、總要素能源效率(TFEE) 94
第伍章結論 100
第一節產業研析 100
第二節產業能源效率 101
第三節研究限制與未來方向 103
參考文獻 104
附錄 109

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 網站部分

AREMOS台灣經濟統計資料庫
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中華民國統計資訊網
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經濟部統計處「工業產銷存動態調查(業別統計)」
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經濟部能源局能源平衡表
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指導教授

吳大任、劉錦龍

審核日期

2014-6-26

推文