Phillips Curve from Psychological Perspectives

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楊謹維(Chin-Wei Yang) 查詢紙本館藏

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經濟學系

論文名稱

(Phillips Curve from Psychological Perspectives)

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摘要(中)

這些年來雖然台灣人民歷經著相對許多其他國家低的長期失業率和通貨膨脹率，但是台灣人民卻普遍對於總體經濟環境不甚滿意，此現象反映著傳統經濟指標似乎無法真正反映人民心理感受之事實。近年來經濟學家們從心理學文獻引入快樂資料庫進行實證研究，而這樣的資料庫已被相關研究證實，可以真實反映人民的感受。基於此，本篇論文乃使用「世界價值調查」的快樂資料估計歐洲、亞洲四小龍和儒家文化國家失業率與通貨膨脹率關係，並且引入預期通貨膨脹率的影響，由人們的快樂感受研究菲利浦曲線，藉此重新檢驗失業率和通膨率對人民快樂程度的真正影響程度，以及失業率和通膨率兩者對於人們快樂程度的邊際替代率。實證結果有三個主要的發現：首先，與文獻不同地，本文發現失業率對快樂程度的傷害並非絕對大於通膨率，東方國家的人民傾向相對較厭惡通膨率，而西方國家則相對較厭惡失業率。此實證結果的政策意涵在於各國政府必須依照其人民的偏好選擇各該國家合適的總體經濟政策，才能真正提升人民福祉。其次，本文發現各國失業率和通膨率的邊際替代率差異頗大，其估計範圍從0.37至3.7。本文根據實證估計結果重新估算各國悲慘指數，結果發現台灣的悲慘指數確實高於一些長期經歷高通膨或高失業率的國家，這個結果顯示，各國人們對於通貨膨脹與失業率感受度的差異確實會影響人民的幸福快樂感。實證結果也發現預期通膨率對於人民的快樂程度具有相當的影響力，因此，政府執行政策時應當更加謹慎，避免過分刺激人民對於通膨率的預期，進而影響到生活在該國人們的快樂感受與福祉。

摘要(英)

Taiwanese people have experienced relatively low long-run unemployment rate and inflation rate, comparing to other countries in the world; nevertheless, they are still unsatisfied with the macroeconomic circumstances. The fact indicates that traditional economic indicators cannot truly reflect how people feel. Fortunately, economists adopt happiness data from psychology literature, which has demonstrated that such data is a better measurement for people’s feeling. The thesis thus uses happiness data from World Value Survey to estimate the augmented Phillips curves for Europe, Asian Tigers, and Confucian-culture countries, to review the real effects of unemployment and inflation on people’s happiness and to calculate the marginal rates of substitution (MRSs) between the two rates. The empirical results reveal three main findings. First of all, unemployment doesn’t always hurt people more than inflation does. Specifically, inflation is more unfavorable in the oriental countries; yet, the occidental countries prefer unemployment more than inflation. The finding means that to achieve the best social welfare, the governments should modify their macroeconomic policies based on their people’s preferences on unemployment and inflation. Second, the estimated MRSs range widely from 0.37 to 3.7 across countries. According to the empirical results, we recalculate the Misery indexes for each country studied in this research, which indicate that the Misery index of Taiwan is larger than some countries experiencing higher long-term unemployment and/or inflation rates. Finally, anticipation of inflation also has influences on people’s happiness levels. It implies that governments should implement policies more carefully in the sense of altering people’s anticipation for inflation.

關鍵字(中)

★ 菲利浦曲線
★ 失業率
★ 通膨率
★ 快樂

關鍵字(英)

★ Phillips curve
★ unemployment rate
★ inflation rate
★ happiness

論文目次

摘要 I
Abstract II
致謝 III
Content IV
1. Introduction 1
2. Literature review 7
The Phillips Curves 7
Happiness in economics 9
3. Dataset and Basic Statistics 20
Happiness level 20
Macroeconomic performances 24
4. Model Specifications and Empirical Strategies 29
Model specification 30
Empirical strategy 32
5. Empirical results 37
World 37
Case study by region 40
Europe 41
Asian Tigers 43
Confucian-culture countries 46
Endogeneity 47
6. Conclusion 54
References 57
Appendix 61

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指導教授

黃麗璇

審核日期

2014-7-18

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