博碩士論文 102350604 詳細資訊




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姓名 施裴莉(Siphelele Nonduduzo Simelane)  查詢紙本館藏   畢業系所 國際永續發展碩士在職專班
論文名稱 在史瓦濟蘭魯旁保平原風電潛力的可行性研究
(A Feasibility Study on the Potential of Wind Electricity Generation in Lubombo Plateau, Swaziland)
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摘要(中) 中文摘要
風力發電目前已在大部分發展中國家成為吸引人的再生能源模式。以目前的
電力供應量來看,史瓦濟蘭正面對電力供給不足的挑戰。再生風力資源的電
力供應能夠成為史瓦濟蘭的的永續發展的一環。為了能夠在最低成本下獲得
足夠的電力,在風力發電計畫開始前尋找適當的場址以及評估是必要的。本
研究是在史瓦濟蘭境內的魯旁保高原的特定場址設置風力發電的可行性分析
。透過 30 個月的風速資料中,包含在高度 10、20、30、40、50 公尺以及垂
直方向外差得到 80 公尺高度下每小時風速資料加以分析風的特性、技術以及
經濟潛能。偉伯統計分布函數和每月的偉伯參數 k 和 c 用以決定風速的分布
,其中 41 < k < 3.16 與 5.56 < c < 7.90 m/s 的數值顯示大範圍之風速分
布在所有季節中,且在九月中有最高的 c 值,二月中為最低。在五十公尺下
的風功率密度範圍為 113.59 – 304.49 W/m2 。
在與其他模型的比較分析後,以 RETScreen 軟體模擬的 23 MW 安裝容量的風
力農場和西門子風力渦輪機組模型作為技術以及經濟評估。2.3 MW 額定容量
機組的評估得到 27.9%的容量因子和 56,278 MWh 發電輸出。此建議的風力發
電廠預期能夠每年減少6,455噸的溫室氣體,二十年的壽命則總和達118,776
噸。在沒有建廠補助下,估計一座風力農場使用 2.3 MW 風力渦輪額定容量能
夠發電的最低成本為 0.13 US$/kWh。萊邦博高原具有使用高容量風力渦輪機
來開發併網風力發電的潛力,。以最少收購電價的補貼風力計畫政策對成功
推行的風力發電計畫會非常重要。
摘要(英) Abstract
Wind energy utilization has increasingly become attractive form of renewable energy in most
developing countries. Swaziland is challenged by high electricity demand which cannot be met
by current generation capacity. Renewable wind resources could be employed in electricity
generation as part of sustainable development in the country. The identification of a suitable site
as well as the assessment of that site prior to wind generation project is very essential in order to
produce substantial amounts of power at minimum costs. This study is a site specific analysis to
determine the feasibility of wind electricity generation in Lubombo plateau in Swaziland. The
wind characteristics, technical and economic potential were analyzed using 30 months hourly wind
speed data measured at 10, 20, 30, 40 and 50 m heights and vertical extrapolations were carried
out to 80 m height. The wind distribution was determined using Weibull probability distribution
function and the monthly Weibull parameters k and c are within the range 2.41 < k < 3.16 and
5.56 < c < 7.90 m/s indicating wide spread of wind speeds in all seasons, with highest c values in
September and lowest in February. The wind power density ranges between 113.59 – 304.49
W/m2
at 50 m.
The technical and economic assessments were performed using the RETScreen software for a 23
MW installed capacity hypothetical wind farm and the Siemens wind turbine models were selected
after comparison with other models for analysis. The 2.3 MW rated capacity was evaluated with
corresponding annual energy output was 56,278 MWh with 27.9% capacity factor (CF). The
project is expected able to mitigate 6,455 tonnes of GHGs annually and a total of 118,776 tonnes
over 20 years lifetime for the proposed wind power plant. The least cost of generating electricity
is estimated at 0.13 US$/kWh considering a wind farm with 2.3 MW wind turbine capacities
without capital subsidies. It was concluded that this area had a potential for the development of
grid-connected wind electricity generation using high capacity wind turbines and the 2.3 MW wind
turbines seemed to be more feasible for installation in Lubombo plateau with local site conditions.
Subsidization of the wind project at minimum feed-in tariffs would play a very important role in
its successful implementation
關鍵字(中) ★ Feasibility study
★ RETScreen
★ Weibull distribution
★ Wind energy
★ Wind power density
★ Capacity factor
關鍵字(英)
論文目次 Table of Contents
Page
中文摘要 ................................................................................................................................... v
Abstract.................................................................................................................................... vi
Acknowledgements................................................................................................................. vii
List of Figures ........................................................................................................................... xi
List of Tables ..........................................................................................................................xiii
Acronyms................................................................................................................................ xiv
Measurement units ................................................................................................................... xv
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................ 1
1.1 Historical applications of Wind Energy ............................................................................. 1
1.2 Wind Energy in Africa ...................................................................................................... 3
1.3 Problem statement............................................................................................................. 4
1.4 Objectives......................................................................................................................... 6
1.5 Description of Study area .................................................................................................. 7
1.6 Study Limitations.............................................................................................................. 8
1.7 Organization of the study .................................................................................................. 8
CHAPTER 2: BACKGROUND AND LITERATURE REVIEW........................................ 10
2.1 Overview ........................................................................................................................ 10
2.2 Wind energy overview .................................................................................................... 10
2.3 Wind turbine technology ................................................................................................. 11
2.4 General information about Swaziland.............................................................................. 14
2.4.1 Geography................................................................................................................ 14
2.4.2 Climate..................................................................................................................... 15
2.4.3 Economy .................................................................................................................. 16
2.5 Energy in Swaziland........................................................................................................ 16
ix
2.5.1 Electricity price ........................................................................................................ 20
2.6 Renewable energy in Swaziland ...................................................................................... 21
2.7 Literature Review............................................................................................................ 23
2.7.1 Wind resource assessments....................................................................................... 23
2.7.2 Analysis of Wind Energy.......................................................................................... 26
2.7.3 Environmental concerns............................................................................................ 28
2.7.4 Technical and Economic assessments ....................................................................... 29
CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY ......................................................................................... 32
3.1 Overview ........................................................................................................................ 32
3.2 Wind resource assessment ............................................................................................... 32
3.2.2 Meteorological tower measurements......................................................................... 32
3.3 The analysis of wind resource characteristics................................................................... 35
3.3.1 Annual, seasonal and diurnal mean wind speeds ....................................................... 35
3.3.2 Wind speed frequency distribution............................................................................ 36
3.3.3 Extrapolation of wind speed with height ................................................................... 37
3.4 Wind power density ........................................................................................................ 38
3.5 Long-term wind correlation............................................................................................. 39
3.6 RETScreen Clean Energy Project Analysis..................................................................... 39
3.7 RETScreen Wind Energy Project Analysis...................................................................... 40
3.7.1 Energy Model........................................................................................................... 42
3.7.2 Cost Analysis............................................................................................................ 44
3.7.3 Emission Analysis .................................................................................................... 47
3.7.4 Financial Analysis .................................................................................................... 48
3.7.5 Sensitivity & Risk Analysis ...................................................................................... 49
CHAPTER 4: RESULTS AND DISCUSSION...................................................................... 50
4.1 Theoretical model: Wind characteristics.......................................................................... 50
4.1.1 Monthly wind speed variation................................................................................... 50
4.1.2 Annual mean wind speeds......................................................................................... 51
4.1.3 Diurnal wind speed variations................................................................................... 52
x
4.2 Statistical distribution models.......................................................................................... 54
4.2.2 Monthly Weibull distribution parameters.................................................................. 56
4.3 Extrapolation of wind speed with height ...................................................................... 57
4.4 Wind power classification ............................................................................................... 62
4.5 Energy production and capacity factor............................................................................. 63
4.6 Emission Analysis results................................................................................................ 65
4.7 Economic results............................................................................................................. 66
4.7.1 Cost Analysis results................................................................................................. 66
4.7.2 Financial Analysis results ......................................................................................... 69
CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS ........................................... 73
5.1 Conclusion ...................................................................................................................... 73
5.2 Recommendations........................................................................................................... 75
5.2.1 Future work .............................................................................................................. 76
REFERENCES ....................................................................................................................... 77
APPENDIX A: RETScreen Base case electricity system ...................................................... 83
APPENDIX B: RETScreen Proposed case electricity system............................................... 83
APPENDIX C: Breakdown of investment costs.................................................................... 84
APPENDIX D: Financial summary and yearly cash flows................................................... 89
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指導教授 吳俊諆(Jiunn-Chi Wu) 審核日期 2015-7-9
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