在一些氣候因素的預測和相關性的一些經濟和農業指標

以作者查詢圖書館館藏

、以作者查詢臺灣博碩士

、以作者查詢全國書目

、勘誤回報

、線上人數：41

、訪客IP：3.133.118.122

姓名

毛立修(omar aragon) 查詢紙本館藏

畢業系所

國際永續發展碩士在職專班

論文名稱

在一些氣候因素的預測和相關性的一些經濟和農業指標
(Forecasting and Correlations among some climatic factors on some economic and agricultural indicators)

相關論文

★ 凝膠濃度對胎盤幹細胞貼附及分化之影響	★ 摻雜銀或銀銅氮氧化鉭薄膜之製備、特性分析及抗菌行為分析
★ 以反應式磁控濺鍍製備Ag2O/TiO2疊層薄膜及其特性之研究	★ 以射頻磁控濺鍍法製備銦鋅氧化物(IZO)透明導電薄膜並探討製程參數對其薄膜之影響
★ 以微陽極導引電鍍法沉積奈米氧化鋅薄膜	★ Fabrication and Characterization of Polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) Thin Film by Plasma Polymerization
★ Effects of Diluted Ar in H2/SiH4 on Amorphous Hydrogenated Silicon Thin Film (i-layer) by an Inductive Coupled Plasma-Chemical Vapor Deposition (ICP-CVD) System	★ 評估貝里斯Rio Bravo保育管理區內硬木種類之樹高
★ 以HFSS 天線模擬程式為設計LTE Band 41設計天線	★ The Deposition and Microstructure of Tungsten Oxide Films by Physical Vapor Deposition
★ 以塊狀金屬玻璃和其複材製作骨科鑽頭及其鑽孔能力之研究	★ Economic feasibility for recycling crystalline silicon photovoltaics modules
★ 電漿聚合系統在不同功率下製成聚吡咯薄膜之特性及微結構分析	★ Structural Study on BaCeO3 Perovskite Thin Film by Sputtering
★ 用於表面電漿共振光譜的多層金鋁薄膜的設計與優化	★ 磁控濺射法製備氧氮化釩薄膜的製備和表徵

檔案

[Endnote RIS 格式]

[Bibtex 格式]

[相關文章]

[文章引用]

[完整記錄]

[館藏目錄]

[檢視]

[下載]

本電子論文使用權限為同意立即開放。
已達開放權限電子全文僅授權使用者為學術研究之目的，進行個人非營利性質之檢索、閱讀、列印。
請遵守中華民國著作權法之相關規定，切勿任意重製、散佈、改作、轉貼、播送，以免觸法。

摘要(中)

氣候變遷正發生於中美洲，極端事件的強烈及高頻率的變化就是一種表現方式。根據IPCC(政府間氣候變化專門委員會)的報告指出，太平洋沿海將會有更嚴重氣候變化，也相當於薩爾瓦多所在地。在薩爾瓦多，大部分的生產活動基於廣大的自然生態系統。主要行業中，氣候變化的影響可能是重要的自然生態系統、水資源、海岸帶、農業、經濟以及人類健康。氣候變遷在許多方面將面臨更多的挑戰。然而，農業是最不容爭辯受氣候變化的影響 (IPCC, 2007)。藉由這個理由，為了尋找玉米、豆類、咖啡和甘蔗在薩爾瓦多產品的趨勢以及尋找與氣候因素的關聯性而設計了這項研究。另一方面，在薩爾瓦多，農業的部分在國家經濟發展是特別的重要。尤其在最近十年中，農業在每年所佔總GDP值往往超過11%，甚至在2014到達12% (Avelar 2015)。因此這項研究也分析了氣候因素對於一些經濟指標的影響。
首先，透過使用簡單的移動平均、加權移動平均值，並為每個氣候，農業和經濟指標累計移動平均預測模型設計。之後，藉由尋找均方根誤差為每個指標來探究及比較其模型的精確性。這項結果顯示出在給定變數的情況下，這三種逼近法之中最準確的理論是簡單移動平均，因為其包含較低的均方根誤差的結果。
最後，這項研究透過散佈圖分析、標準差以及平均值等統計分析，探討在不同的氣候因素對於經濟指標及農業生產指標之間的關聯性。從指標觀察到的相互關聯性將在各章節中做詳細之說明。

摘要(英)

Climate change is occurring in Central America, and one manifestation is changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events. According to the IPCC (Intergovernmental panel of climate change) the effects of climate change will be more severe along the Pacific coast of Central America where El Salvador is located. In El Salvador, most of the country’s production activities are based on its extensive natural ecosystems. Major sectors in which the impacts of climate change could be important are natural ecosystems, water resources, coastal zones, agriculture, economy, and human health. Climate change will augment the challenges in many dimensions. However, agriculture is inarguably the sector most affected by climate change (IPCC, 2007). For that reason, this study is designed in order to find the production trends of corn, bean, coffee and sugar cane in El Salvador and to find their correlations with climatic factors. On the other hand, in El Salvador, the agricultural sector is especially important in the economic development of the country. In this decade its contribution to the total GDP has always been higher than 11%, reaching 12% in 2014 (Avelar, 2015). Therefore, this study also analyses the impacts of the climatic factors on some economic indicators.
First, by using simple moving average, weighted moving average, and cumulative moving average as a forecasting approach for climatic, agricultural and economic indicators is carried out. After that, we explored and compared the accuracy of each moving average method by finding the root mean square error for each indicator. The results indicate that for the given variables the most accurate theory among three approaches is the simple moving average because the lower root mean square error results are obtained with it.
Finally, this study explores the correlations among the different climatic factors on the economic indicators and agricultural production indexes by applying a statistical analysis using scatter diagrams. The correlations among indicators are explained in details to conclude the three interrelations among climatic, agricultural and economic indicators.

關鍵字(中)

關鍵字(英)

★ Forecasting
★ Correlation
★ Moving average
★ Climate change
★ economic indicators
★ agricultural indicators

論文目次

Chapter 1 Introduction………………………..……………………………………………………………………1
1.1 Problem Statement 1
1.2 Hypothesis 2
1.3 Scope 3
1.4 Objectives 3
1.5 Limitations 4
Chapter 2 Study Area 5
2.1 Background 5
2.1 History of El Salvador. First Period: 1980-1992 5
2.2 History of El Salvador. Second Period: 1993-present day 6
2.3 Climate in El Salvador 7
2.4 Major Natural Hazards in El Salvador 7
2.4.1 Storms and Floods in El Salvador 9
2.5 Link between Climate Change and Energy 10
2.6 Link between Population growth and Climate Change 11
2.7 Geology, Soils, Water Resources in El Salvador 12
2.8 Agriculture and Economy 14
2.9.1 International Trade 16
2.9.2 Economic, Agricultural and Social Development 16
2.10 Agriculture and Climate 17
2.11 Summary 18
Chapter 3 Methodology 20
3.1 Time Series Analysis 20
3.2 Moving Average 20
3.3 Simple Moving Average (SMA) 21
3.4 Cumulative Moving Average (CMA) 23
3.5 Weighted Moving Average (WMA) 24
3.6 Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) 24
3.7 Flowchart of the Forecasting Approach 25
Chapter 4 Forecasting using Moving Average 27
4.1 Introduction 27
4.2 Forecasting using Simple Moving Average (SMA) 29
4.2.1 Forecasting Climatic Variables Using Simple Moving Average (SMA) 30
4.2.2 Forecasting Agricultural production indicators using Simple Moving Average (SMA) 33
4.2.3 Forecasting Economic indicators using Simple Moving Average (SMA) 38
4.3 Forecasting using Cumulative Moving Average (CMA) 44
4.4 Forecasting using Weighted Moving Average (WMA) 44
4.5 Comparison between Different Forecasting Method 45
Chapter 5 Correlations among Indicators 48
5.1 Introduction 48
5.3 Correlations among agricultural indicators and annual average total precipitation 50
5.4 Correlations among GDP and agricultural indicators 55
5.5 Correlations among economic indicators 61
Chapter 6 Conclusions 66
References 69

參考文獻

(n.d.). Retrieved July 14, 2015, from Earth System Research Laboratory: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html
(2009, August 7). Retrieved June 14, 2015, from U.S. Energy Information Administration: http://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=environment_how_ghg_affect_climate
(2013, September 9). Retrieved July 17, 2015, from United States Environmental Protection Agency: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/agriculture.html
(2013, September 9). Retrieved July 17, 2015, from United States Environmental Protection Agency: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/energy.html
(2015, July 1). Retrieved July 13, 2015, from Wikipedia. The Free Encyclopedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autoregressive_model
Al-mulali, U., YM Lee, J., & Mohammed, A. H.-T. (2013). Examining the link between energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions, and economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean. Johor Bahru Johor: Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews.
Ashraf, M. H.-u.-R. (1999). nteractive effects of nitrate and long-term waterlogging on growth, water relations, and gaseous exchange properties of maize. Plant Science 144 (1) , 35-43.
Avelar, L. M. (2015, February 24). La Prensa Grafica. Retrieved April 13, 2015, from http://www.laprensagrafica.com/2015/02/24/camagro-se-redujo-aporte-del-sector-al-pib
Bukele, R., Lozano, F., & Molina, C. (2012). Analysis of the deterioration of the agriculture in El Salvador from the liberization of the economy in the 90′s. Antiguo Cuscatlan, La Libertad, El Salvador: Universidad Centroamericana "Jose Simeon Canas".
Chai, T., & Draxler, R. (2014). Root Mean Square Error or Mean Absolute Error? Arguments against avoiding RMSE in the literature. Geoscientific Model Development , 1247-1250.
Cordero, M. (2014). Net Trade of Goods and Services. Mexico City: United Nations.
Country Studies U.S. (n.d.). Retrieved June 8, 2015, from Country Studies U.S. Web Site: http://countrystudies.us/el-salvador/53.htm
De la Torre, P., Fajnzylberg, P., & Nash, J. (2009). Development with less carbon: Latin American asnwers to climate change. Washington D.C.: World Bank.
Dore, M. (2005). Climate change and changes in global precipitation patterns: What do we know? Environment International , 1167-1181.
Global, C. (2013, 12 24). Retrieved 7 2015, 14, from Climate and Development Knowledge Network: http://cdkn.org/2013/12/el-salvador-builds-resilience-in-face-of-a-stormy-future/?loclang=en_gb
Hydrologic Variability of the Cosumnes River Floodplain. (2006). San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science, Volume 4, Issue 2 .
IPCC. (2007). Climate change 2007. IPCC (Intergubernamental group of experts about climate change) , 104.
Karl, T. J. (2009). USGCRP (2009). Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. New York, NY, USA.: Cambridge University Press.
Kozdroj, J. v. (2000). Response ofthe bacterial community to root exudates in soil polluted with heavy metals assessed by molecular and cultural approaches. Soil Biology and Biochemistry 32 , 1405–1417.
Leary, N., Kulnarni, J., & Seipt, C. (2007). Assessments of impacts and adaptation to climate change: Final Report. Washington D.C.: AIACC: Implementing Agency of the United Nations Evironment Programme (UNEP).
Lobo, C. (2011). Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation: The Need and Role of Civil Society Organizations. World Resources Report. Retrieved April 4, 2015, from World Resource Report: http://www.wri.org/our-work/project/world-resources-report
Lopez, K. (2012, September 17). La Prensa Grafica, El Salvador. Retrieved June 8, 2015, from http://www.laprensagrafica.com/economia/nacional/282911-produccion-de-cafe-de-el-salvador-no-repunta.html
McDaniel, S., Minnier, J., Betensky, R., Mohapatra, G., Shen, Y., Gusella, J., et al. (2010). Assessing Population Level Genetic Instability. International Chinese Statistical Association.
Office of the United States Trade Representative. (n.d.). Retrieved April 14, 2015, from https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements/cafta-dr-dominican-republic-central-america-fta
Ordaz, J., Ramirez, D., Mora, J., Acosta, A., & Serna, B. (2012). El Salvador: Effects of climate change on agriculture. Mexico, Federal District: United Nations.
Parry, M. a. (2004). Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socioeconomic scenarios. Global Environmental Change , 14: 53-67.
Population Action International. (2011). Why Population Matters to Climate Change. Washington, DC: Population Action International.
Rojas, M., & Ventura, V. (2013). Central America: Production Statistics from the electrical subsector 2012. Mexico City: Economic Comission for Latin America and the Caribbean .
Romm, J. (2015, March 13). Retrieved June 16, 2015, from Think Progress: http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/03/13/3633362/iea-co2-emissions-decouple-growth/
Salvador, M. o. (2013). Multi-purpose household surveys. San Salvador: Institute of Statistics of El Salvador.
Stern. (2007). The economics of climate change: the Stern review. Cambridge University Press .
The Crop Site. (2013, April 29). Retrieved June 9, 2015, from http://www.thecropsite.com/reports/?id=1957
The World Bank. Disaster Risk Management in Central America: El Salvador. Washington, DC: Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery.
The World Bank. (2009). El Salvador: Country Note on Climate Change Aspects in Agriculture. The World Bank.
WeatherSpark Beta. (n.d.). Retrieved March 15, 2015, from https://weatherspark.com/history/32651/2013/San-Salvador-La-Paz-El-Salvador
Wikipedia. (2015, January 29). Geography of El Salvador. Retrieved April 14, 2015, from http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Geography_of_El_Salvador&oldid=644716523
Wikipedia. (2015, January 14). Moving Average. Retrieved January 20, 2015, from https://en.wikipedia.org/?title=Moving_average
Ya-lun, C. (1975). Statistical Analysis. Holt International.
Zhang, H. (2013). Modeling and Forecasting regional GDP in Sweden using autoregressive models. Falun: Dalarna University.

指導教授

李泉(li chuan)

審核日期

2015-7-31

推文