博碩士論文 102350609 詳細資訊




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姓名 施英莉(Ingrid Beatriz Sologaistoa Lemus)  查詢紙本館藏   畢業系所 國際永續發展碩士在職專班
論文名稱 小型風力發電於瓜地馬拉VIZCAYA社區推展的可行性研究
(A feasibility study of small-scale wind energy (SSWE) project in the neighborhood of Vizcaya, Santa Catarina Pinula, Guatemala)
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摘要(中) 風力發電從 2010 年的裝機容量1980億瓦 (198 GW) 驟增至 2013年的3180億瓦,三年間快速增加了60%,每年平均增加約達20%。另一方面,可安裝於住宅區、 農業區、 商業區、 政府辦公行政區及工業區的小型風力發電系統,於國際市場也逐漸成長。這類小型風力發電機一般的裝機容量可達 50 千瓦,葉扇直徑在 3至 10公尺之間,高度 3至20公尺左右。
本論文探討小型風力發電系統於瓜地馬拉的聖塔卡塔琳娜皮努拉省的威茲卡雅住宅區推展的可行性,包括風速與風向特性分析,及應用Windographer軟體推估該地區的風能電場強度。本研究試選用奧地利STEP Energysystems公司產製的STEP V2小型風力發電機組,根據其額定發電效率及工程成本,評估採用該機型的操作維護成本,並以問卷訪查方式調查該住宅區居民對於安裝小型風力發電機專案計畫的接受度及支付意願。
於財務可行性分析方面,則採用電力平準化成本分析法 (Levelized Cost of Electricity,LCOE),將風力發電機於其全生命週期所發生的建造及操作營運成本除以總輸出電力,所得的數值評估本專案計畫的財務可行性。本研究設計不同的情境進行LCOE分析,將分析所得的成本與住宅區居民的支付意願額度進行比較分析,以探討在哪些條件下該專案將為可行。本研究亦推算出該專案對於二氧化碳的減少排放量為每年92.8公噸。
該社區目前的電費為每度 (kWh) $0.19美元,由問卷調查可以看出,該社區居民既使在風力發電上的知識尚淺,也沒有自政府或相關機構獲知太多有關風能方面的資訊之情形下,令人訝異的是,居民願意支付的風電費用竟然可達每度 $0.23 美元。本研究特訂定出幾個要符合小型風力發電機專案計畫可行性的條件,供政府相關部門或進一步研究者之參考。
摘要(英) Wind power has experienced rapid global growth with a 60% increase from 2010 (198 GW of installed capacity) to 2013 (318 GW of installed capacity), and approximately 20% increase per year in average. There has been a tendency to increase installed capacity, height, and rotor diameter. However, small scale wind energy systems, which are used on residential, agricultural, commercial, government and industrial sites to generate their own clean and cost-effective electricity, are also growing in international markets. These small turbines have an installed capacity of up to 50 kW, rotor diameters between 3 m and 10 m, and are between 3 m to 20 m high.
This thesis aims to determine the feasibility of a SSWE project in the residential area of Vizcaya in Santa Catarina Pinula, Guatemala. To do so wind speeds and wind direction characteristics were analyzed through Excel and Windographer software to determine the power density of the area. Afterwards, a turbine model was selected and the power output was analyzed using the specifications of that turbine. At the same time, the targeted neighborhood‟s attitude towards the small wind project was evaluated to determine their acceptance and their willingness to pay (WTP). A financial analysis was made calculating a Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE), which is an assessment of the average total cost of a power asset to be built and operated over its lifetime divided by the total power output over that same lifetime. The LCOE was calculated under different scenarios and then compared to the neighbors‟ WTP to determine under which conditions the project would be feasible. Finally, an emissions mitigation analysis was carried out to determine the tons of CO2 that would be mitigated through this wind power project.
The chosen wind turbine, a STEP V2, which is manufactured by STEP Energysystems, in Austria, has an average net power output of 2.41 kW at 20 m with monthly averages ranging between 0.4 kW (June) and 6.3 kW (February). Neighbors currently buy electricity at US$0.19/kWh, and even though their knowledge on wind power and about the project itself is low, their WTP for energy from a wind project without deep information about it is surprisingly about US$0.23/kWh. Through a financial and sensitivity analysis, it was determined that a group of turbines is needed not only to supply the demand but to meet their WTP. Under the most optimistic scenario, at least fifteen wind turbines are needed, and under the most conservative scenario it wouldn‟t be possible to meet the neighborhood‟s current WTP making the project not feasible. Furthermore, it was determined that through this case study there is an annual net GHG (greenhouse gas) emission mitigation of 92.8 tons of CO2 per year.
This small wind project proved to be feasible under one scenario without considering grants or policies, and without considering carbon grants or any other environmental benefit that can be transformed into economic benefits. Therefore, the project is more attractive if policies were placed to economically benefit wind projects, if grants could be obtained for the development of the project, and if the project‟s mitigated emissions were to economically be taken into account.
關鍵字(中) ★ 風力發電
★ 小型風能系統
★ 消費者付費意願
★ 電力平準化成本分析
★ 二氧化碳排放減量
關鍵字(英) ★ wind power
★ small-scale wind energy (SSWE)
★ consumers′ willingness to pay (WTP)
★ Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE)
★ CO2
★ emissions mitigation
論文目次 Table of Contents
摘 要 ................................................................................................................................................ i
Abstract ........................................................................................................................................... ii
Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................ iv
List of Figures ................................................................................................................................ ix
List of Tables ............................................................................................................................... xiii
Acronyms...................................................................................................................................... xv
Thesis structure ............................................................................................................................... 1
Chapter 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................... 2
1.1. Motivation and objectives ................................................................................................. 2
1.1.1. Motivation ................................................................................................................. 2
1.1.2. Objectives .................................................................................................................. 3
1.2. Limitations ........................................................................................................................ 4
1.3. Methodology ..................................................................................................................... 5
1.3.1. Summarized steps ...................................................................................................... 6
1.3.2. General methodology framework .............................................................................. 8
1.4. Study area: neighborhood of Vizcaya in Santa Catarina Pinula, Guatemala .................... 9
1.4.1. Location ..................................................................................................................... 9
1.4.2. HDI in Santa Catarina Pinula .................................................................................. 13
1.4.3. Electric energy and electric energy coverage .......................................................... 15
Chapter 2. Literature review .......................................................................................................... 19
2.1. Small scale wind energy ................................................................................................. 19
2.1.1. SSWE turbine manufacturing and technology ........................................................ 22
2.1.2. Small scale wind energy world market .................................................................... 23
2.1.3. Driving factors for success ...................................................................................... 25
vi
2.1.4. SSWE world market forecast (2020) ....................................................................... 26
2.1.5. Brief history of wind power..................................................................................... 27
2.2. Wind resources................................................................................................................ 28
2.2.1. Wind quality ............................................................................................................ 29
2.2.2. Wind energy systems ............................................................................................... 36
2.3. Wind resource assessment .............................................................................................. 37
2.4. SSWE case studies .......................................................................................................... 38
2.4.1. SSWE project in Eeragh Lighthouse, Ireland (1996) .............................................. 38
2.4.2. SSWE project in the community of Alumbre, Cajamarca, Peru ............................. 39
2.4.3. SSWE project in Dulas Valley, Wales, United Kingdom ....................................... 40
2.4.4. SSWE project in Tsagwa Village, Kenya ................................................................ 42
2.4.5. SSWE project in Montana‟s Paradise Valley, United States ................................... 43
2.4.6. Other SSWE projects in in Montana, United States ................................................ 44
2.4.7. SSWE project case studies comparison table .......................................................... 45
2.5. Consumer‟s behavior ...................................................................................................... 46
2.5.1. WTP for electricity from renewable resources ........................................................ 46
2.6. Financial analysis literature review ................................................................................ 47
2.6.1. Costs of wind power ................................................................................................ 48 2.6.2. Breakdown of the installed capital cost ................................................................... 49
2.6.3. Operation & Maintenance (O&M) costs ................................................................. 51
2.6.4. Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) .................................................................... 52
2.6.5. Sensitivity analysis .................................................................................................. 56
Chapter 3. Results and discussion ................................................................................................. 57
3.1. Wind data analysis: analyzing wind speed, temperature, wind direction, and power density ....................................................................................................................................... 57
vii
3.1.1. Wind speed analysis ................................................................................................ 57
3.1.2. Temperature analysis ............................................................................................... 76
3.1.3. Wind direction ......................................................................................................... 78
3.1.4. Power density analysis............................................................................................. 81
3.2. Turbine selection and turbine power output ................................................................... 86
3.2.1. Turbine selection ..................................................................................................... 86
3.2.2. Turbines‟ power output ........................................................................................... 88
3.3. Consumer behavior analysis ........................................................................................... 98
3.3.1. Neighbors‟ attitude towards a wind project in their neighborhood Vizcaya ........... 98
3.3.2. IESD students‟ attitude towards a wind project .................................................... 108
3.4. Financial analysis .......................................................................................................... 110
3.4.1. Capital and O&M costs for one turbine ................................................................. 110
3.4.2. Capital and O&M costs for a wind farm (more than one turbine) ........................ 111
3.4.3. Calculating the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) ............................................... 114
3.4.4. Sensitivity analysis ................................................................................................ 117
3.5. Emissions mitigation analysis ....................................................................................... 119
Chapter 4. Conclusions and Recommendations .......................................................................... 121
4.1. Conclusions ................................................................................................................... 121
4.2. Recommendations ......................................................................................................... 123
Bibliography ............................................................................................................................... 127
Appendix .................................................................................................................................... 130
Relevant figures and tables to support Introduction & Literature Review .............................. 130
Relevant figures and tables to support Results & Discussion.................................................. 132
Monthly wind speed profiles ................................................................................................ 132
Mean diurnal wind speed profiles ........................................................................................ 143
viii
Monthly power density profiles ........................................................................................... 145
Electricity surplus or deficit with STEP V2 turbines ........................................................... 151
Surveys .................................................................................................................................... 153
Survey to neighbors .............................................................................................................. 153
Survey for IESD students ..................................................................................................... 159
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指導教授 廖萬里(Wan Li Liao) 審核日期 2015-7-28
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