博碩士論文 102350610 詳細資訊




以作者查詢圖書館館藏 以作者查詢臺灣博碩士 以作者查詢全國書目 勘誤回報 、線上人數:19 、訪客IP:54.224.230.51
姓名 (Kenny Brenton Black)  查詢紙本館藏   畢業系所 國際永續發展碩士在職專班
論文名稱
(Development and Application of an Assessment Framework for Community Resilience and Vulnerability towards Hydrometeorological disaster inn St. Vincent and the Grenadines)
檔案 [Endnote RIS 格式]    [Bibtex 格式]    [檢視]  [下載]
  1. 本電子論文使用權限為同意立即開放。
  2. 已達開放權限電子全文僅授權使用者為學術研究之目的,進行個人非營利性質之檢索、閱讀、列印。
  3. 請遵守中華民國著作權法之相關規定,切勿任意重製、散佈、改作、轉貼、播送,以免觸法。

摘要(中) 該研究為開發脆弱性和恢復能力的評估框架的方法,得到脆弱性,韌性和災害敏感性指標的發展。Analytic Hierarchy Process整合定性和定量來評估維度和子維度的脆弱性和抗禦能力指數的相對權重的貢獻。該評估模型應用於其中,脆弱性和恢復的指標分配依據其脆弱性和韌性在選定的社區貢獻分數。彈性脆弱的比率計算為研究區域的災害敏感性指數。結果表明社會層面和經濟層面的標準對於脆弱性和抗禦能力指數是最重要。這些結果進一步表明,Georgetown對災害最敏感和脆弱而Layou地區是最不敏感。Marriaqua社區被確定為具有高度韌性
摘要(英) The study develops an assessment framework methodology for vulnerability and resilience, leading to the development of Vulnerability, Resilience and Disaster Susceptibility Indices. The Analytic Hierarchy Process was used to integrate qualitative and quantitative assessment in determining relative weight contribution of dimensions and sub-dimensions criteria to the Vulnerability and Resilience Indices. The assessment model was applied study areas where indicators of Vulnerability and Resilience were assigned scores based on their contribution to vulnerability and resilience in selected communities. The Disaster Susceptibility Index was calculated as the reciprocal of the ratio of resilience to vulnerability. The results showed that social dimension and the economic dimension criteria were most important to the Vulnerability and Resilience Indices respectively. The results further revealed that the Community of Georgetown was the most vulnerable (0.51) and susceptible (0.52) to disasters, while the community of Layou was least susceptible (0.26). The Marriaqua Community was determined to possess the highest level of resilience (1.22).
關鍵字(中) ★ Disaster Assessment
★ Analytic Hierachy Process
★ Vulnerability Index
★ Resilience Index
關鍵字(英) ★ Disaster Assessment
★ Analytic Hierarchy Process
★ Vulnerability Index
★ Resilience Index
論文目次 Chinese abstract.............................................................................................................................................. i
Abstract ......................................................................................................................................................... ii
Acknowledgements ...................................................................................................................................... iii
Table of Content ........................................................................................................................................... iv
List of Figures ............................................................................................................................................. vii
List of Tables .............................................................................................................................................. viii
Acronyms and Symbols ............................................................................................................................... ix
Chapter1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 1
1.1Background .......................................................................................................................................... 1
1.2 Vulnerability and Resilience ................................................................................................................ 1
1.3 Hydrometeorological Hazards in the Caribbean .................................................................................. 3
1.4 St. Vincent & the Grenadines ............................................................................................................... 4
1.5 Topography ......................................................................................................................................... 5
1.6 Climatology ......................................................................................................................................... 6
1.7 Economy ............................................................................................................................................. 8
1.8 St. Vincent & the Grenadines Hazard Risks ........................................................................................ 8
1.9 Disaster Management in St. Vincent & the Grenadines ..................................................................... 11
1.10 Study Areas ..................................................................................................................................... 12
Georgetown ......................................................................................................................................... 13
Marriaqua ............................................................................................................................................ 13
Layou ................................................................................................................................................... 14
1.11 Purpose of the Study ........................................................................................................................ 14
Chapter 2 Literature Review ........................................................................................................................ 16
2.1 AHP in Disaster Assessment studies .................................................................................................. 16
2.2 AHP Process ...................................................................................................................................... 18
Hierarchical Structuring ....................................................................................................................... 19
Pairwise Comparison ............................................................................................................................ 19
Vertically Synthesis .............................................................................................................................. 20
Logic Consistency ............................................................................................................................... 21
2.3 Group Decision in AHP ..................................................................................................................... 22
2.4 AHP Strength and Limits ................................................................................................................... 22
v
Chapter 3 Assessment Methodological Framework ..................................................................................... 23
3.1 Index Development ............................................................................................................................ 23
3.2 The Vulnerability Index ..................................................................................................................... 24
Table3.1 Vulnerability Dimension, Sub-Dimension and Indicators used in assessment ..................... 25
3.3 The Resilience Index .......................................................................................................................... 27
3.4 Indicators Normalization .................................................................................................................... 29
3.5 Sampling Procedure ........................................................................................................................... 30
3.6 AHP Pairwise Comparison and Criteria Weights ................................................................................ 31
3.7 Disaster Susceptibility Index .............................................................................................................. 32
3.8 Calculation of Indices ......................................................................................................................... 33
Chapter 4 Methodology ............................................................................................................................... 34
4.1 AHP Design ...................................................................................................................................... 35
4.2 Data Collection .................................................................................................................................. 35
4.3 Respondents Selection ........................................................................................................................ 36
4.4 Data Processing ................................................................................................................................. 36
4.5 Comparison and Normalized Matrices and Consistency .................................................................... 37
4.6 Vulnerability and Resilience Indices .................................................................................................. 38
Chapter 5 Results ........................................................................................................................................ 38
5.1 Vulnerability AHP Comparisons ....................................................................................................... 38
5.2 Resilience AHP Comparisons ............................................................................................................ 40
5.3 Vulnerability Index Calculations........................................................................................................ 41
5.4 Resilience Index Calculation .............................................................................................................. 42
5.5 Disaster Susceptibility Index .............................................................................................................. 42
Chapter 6 Discussion ................................................................................................................................... 43
6.1 Vulnerability Assessment ................................................................................................................... 43
6.2 Resilience Assessment ....................................................................................................................... 48
6.3 Indices ............................................................................................................................................... 53
6.4 Disaster Susceptibility Index .............................................................................................................. 57
Chapter 7 Conclusions, Limitations and Recommendation ......................................................................... 60
7.1 Conclusions ....................................................................................................................................... 60
7.2 Limitations ........................................................................................................................................ 62
vi
7.3 Recommendations .............................................................................................................................. 62
References ................................................................................................................................................... 64
Appendix A ................................................................................................................................................. 70
Appendix B ................................................................................................................................................. 75
Vulnerability Indicator Scores .............................................................................................................. 75
Appendix C ................................................................................................................................................. 80
參考文獻 [1] Alliance Development Works, 2012. World Risk Report, London: United Nations.
[2] Alonso, J. & Lamata, T., 2004. Consistency in The Analytic Hierarchy Process: A New Approach. International Journal of Uncertainty,Volume 14(4), pp. 445-459.
[3]Anon., n.d. Global Disemminator of Knowledge. [Online] Available at: http://www.igi-global.com/chapter/understanding-legacy-herbert-simon-decision/11338 [Accessed 21 May 2015].
[4] Balica, S., Wright, N. & van der Meulen, F., 2012. A Flood Vulnerability Index for Coastal Cities and Its Use in Assessing Climate Change Impacts. Natural Hazards,Volume 52(4), pp. 73-105.
[5] Blaikie, P., Wisner, B., Davis, I. & Cannon, T., 2003. At Risk: Natural Hazards People′s Vulnerability and Diasasters. New York: Routledge.
[6] Brozova, D., 2004. Decision Theory Problems with Interval Payoffs. Journal of Agriculture and Economics,Volume 50(2), pp. 77-82.
[7] Cardona, O., 20011. System of Indicators for Disaster Management in the Americas, Bogata : Universidad Nacional de Colombia.
[8] Chen, L. & Wang, Y.-W., 2010. Building Community Capacity for Disaster Resilience in Taiwan. Journal of Disaster Research , Volume 5(2), pp. 130-139.
[9] Christensen, J., Hewitson, B. & Chen, X., 2007. Regional Climate Projections: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, London: Cambridge University Press.
[10] Coyle, G., 2004. The Analytic Hierarchy Process. Social and Behavioural Science, Volume 58(12), pp. 1544-1554.
65
[11] Cruz, L., Delagado, N., Lecca, B. & Gond, J.-P., 2014. Institutional Resilience in Extreme Operating Environments: The Role of Institutional Work. Business and Society, Volume 17(4), pp. 4-18.
[12] Cyr, J., 2005. At Risk: Natural Hazards, People′s Vulnerability, and Disasters. Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, Volume 2(2), pp. 1-7.
[13] Division, C. P., 2010. St. Vincent and the Grenadines Population and Housing Census, Kingstown: MOFEP.
[14] ECLAC, 2010. Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean: Regional Climate Modelling in the Caribbean, Havana: United Nations Publications .
[15] Ergu, D., Kou, G., Fulop, J. & Shi, Y., 2012. Further Discussion on Induced Biass Matrix Model for Pairwise Comparison. Springer Science, Volume 16(1), pp. 980-993.
[16] Fiske, R., 1984. Volcanologists, Journalists and the Concerned Public: A Tale of Two Crises in the Eastern Caribbean, in Explosive Volcanism, Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press.
[17] Flannagan, B., Gregory, E., Hallisey, E. & Heitgerd, J. L. B., 2011. A Social Vulnerability Index for Disaster Management. Journl of Homeland Security and Emergency Managemet ,Volume 8(1), pp. 34-51.
[18] Garfi, M., Ferrer-Marti, L. & Bonoli, A. T. S., 2011. Multi-criteria Analysis for Imporving Strategic Environmental Assessment of Water Programmes. A Case Study in Semi-Arid Regions of Brazi. Jounal of Environmental Management,volume 92(3), pp. 43-58.
[19] Gornitz, V. M., 1990. Vulnerability of the East Coast USA to Future Sea Level Rise. Journal of Coastal Research,Volume 12(9), pp. 201- 237.
[20] Gorsevski, P., Jankowski, P. & Gressler, P., 2006. A Heuristic Approach for Mapping Landslide Hazard by Integrating Fuzzy Logic with Analytic Hierarcy Process. Control Cybernetics, Volume 35(1), pp. 121-146.
66
[21]Greaves, G., 2012. On Water Augmentation Strategies for Small Islands Developing States: Case Study of Bequia St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Jhongli: National Central University.
[22]Helsel, D., 1990. Less than Obvious: Statistical Treatment of Data Below the Reporting Limit. Environmental Science and Technology,Volume 39(20), pp. 419-423.
[23] Joerin, J., Shaw, R., Takeuchi, Y. & Krihnamurthy, R., 2012. Assessing Community Resilience to Climate-Related Disasters in Chennai India. International Journal of Disaster Reduction, Volume 23(1), pp. 44-54.
[24] Juntunen, L., 2005. Addressing Social Vulnearability to Hazards.. Disaster Safety Review,Volume 4(2), pp. 3-10.
[25]Kairi, 2009. St. Vincent and the Grenadines Country Poverty Assessment: Living Conditions , Tunapuna : Kairi Consultants .
[26] Kirton, M., 2013. Caribbean Regional Disaster Response and Management Mechanisms: Prospects and Challenges, London: London School of Economcis.
[27] Kusumastuti, R., Hodsodo, D. & Suardi, L. D. D., 2015. Developing a Resilience Index Towards Natural Disasters in Indonesia. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Volume 10(3), pp. 1-14.
[28] Lawerence, T., Zilber, T. & Lecca, B., 2013. Institutional Work: Current Research New Directions and Overlooked Issues. Organization Studies, 24 May,Volume 34(8), pp. 1024-1033.
[29]Leskinen, P., 2000. Measurement Scale and Scale Dependence in the Analytic Hierarchy Process. Journal of Multi-criteria Decision Analysis, Volume 9(4), pp. 163-174.
[30] Lootsma, F., 1993. Scale Sensitivity in the Multipicative AHP and SMAR. Palgrave MacMillan Journals, Volume 2(2), pp. 87-110.
[31] Mahanama, A., Jayasinghe, K., Bandara, C. & Chethika, A., 2014. Assess the Level of Vulnerability in Sri Lankan Coastal Areas to Climate Exaggerated Disaster: Applicaion of Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) and Geographic Information System (GIS). International Journal of Advanced Research, Volume 2(8), pp. 523-534.
67
[32]Malczewski, J., 1999. GIS and Multicriteria Decision Analysis. New York: Wiley and Sons.
[33] Map of World, 2015. World of Maps. [Online] Available at: http://www.mapsofworld.com/saint-vincent-the-grenadines/road-map.html [Accessed 6 May 2015].
[34] Menoni, S., Molinari, D. & Parker, D., 2012. Assessing Multifaceted Vulnerability and Resilience in Order to Design Risk-Mitigation Strategies. Natural Hazards, Volume 64(3), pp. 64-76.
[35] Mikhailov, L., 2003. Deriving Priorities from Fuzzy Pairwise Comparison Judgements: Fuzzy Sets and Systems. Research Gate, Volume 134(3), pp. 365-385.
[36] Mitchel, J., 1999. Crucibles of Hazards: Mega Cities and Disasters in Transition. 1st ed. Tokyo: United Nations University Press.
[37] Mohammed, S., Mohammad, S., Swapan, H. & Haque, S., 2013. Disaster Risk Index: How Far Should it Take Account Local Attributes. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Volume 3(1), pp. 76-87.
[38] Moise, A. et al., 2010. Origins of the Caribbean Rainfall Bimodal Behavior, Los Angeles: University of Santa Clara.
[39] Morrow, B., 1999. Identifying and Mapping Community Vulnerability. Journal of Homeland Security and Disaster Management,Volume 23(1), pp. 1-18.
[40] Ngoka, M., 2010. Integrating Management of Watersheds and Coastal Areas in SID of the Caribbean. [Online] Available at: http://iwlearn.net/iw-projects/1254 [Accessed 15 May 2015].
[41] Nurse, L. & Robert, B., 1997. Technical Survey of Selected Beaches and Coastal Areas in St.Vincent and the Grenadines, Kingstown: Ministry of Environment .
68
[42] Orencio, P. & Fujii, M., 2012. A localized Disaster-Resilience Index to Assess Coastal Communities Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). International Journal of Disaster Reduction,Volume 3(3), pp. 62-75.
[43] Pasch, R. & Kimberlain, T., 2011. Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Tomas, Miami: National Hurricane Center.
[44] Paton, D., Millar, M. & Johnston, D., 2001. Community Resilience to Volcanic Hazard Consequences. Natural Hazards,Volume 24(2), pp. 157-169.
[45] Peduzzi, P., Dao, H., Herold, C. & Mouton, F., 2009. Assessing Global Exposure and Vulnerability Towards Natural Hazards: the Disaster Risk Index. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, Volume 9(4), pp. 1149 -1159.
[46] Pelling, M., 2003. The Vulnerability of cities; Natural Disaster and Social Resilience. 1st ed. London: Earthscan Publication.
[47] Peterson, L., Salmon, P., Goode, N. & Gallina, J., 2014. Translation and Evaluation of the Baseline Indicators for Communities on the Sunshine Coast, Queensland Australia. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Volume 10(6), pp. 116-126.
[48] Rose, A., 2009. Economic Resilience to Disasters , Los Angeles : University of Southern California.
[49] Saaty, T. L., 2008. Decision Making with Analytic Hierarchy Process. Services Science , Volume 1(1), pp. 83-98.
[50] Scira, M. et al., 2012. Assessing Multi-Faceted Vulnerability and Resilience in Order to Design Risk Mitigation Strategies. Natural Hazards, Volume 64(3), pp. 2057-2082.
[51] Scott, W. & Davis, G., 2007. Organisations and Organising: Rational, Natural and Open Systems Perspective. 1st ed. New Jersey: Prentice Hall.
[52] SVGGOV, 2014. Rapid Damage and Loss Assessment (DaLA): December 24-25, 2013 Floods, Kingstown: MOF.
69
[53] Tongco, D., 2007. Purposive Sampling As a Tool for Informant Selection. Ethnobothany Research and Application,Volume 5(12), pp. 147-158.
[54] Trotman, A. et al., 2011. A Proposed Approach to Monitoring and Combating Droughts in the Caribbean, Bridgetown: CIMH.
[55] Twigg, J., 2007. Characteristics of Disaster Resilient Community: A Guide Note, Bangladesh: Disaster Risk Reduction Interagency.
[56] UNESCO, 2014. United Nation Education Scientific and Cultural Organisation. [Online] Available at: http://www.unesco.org/new/en/natural-sciences/special-themes/disaster-preparedness-and-mitigation/natural-hazards/hydro-meteorological-hazards/ [Accessed 25 March 2015].
[57] UNISDR, 2015. Prevention Web. [Online] Available at: http://www.preventionweb.net/countries/vct/data/ [Accessed 27 May 2015].
[58] Warfield, C., 2014. Return to Disaster Management. [Online] Available at: http://www.gdrc.org/uem/disasters/1-dm_cycle.html [Accessed 21 May 2015].
[59] WMO, 2015. World Meteorologic Organisation. [Online] Available at: https://www.wmo.int/pages/index_en.html [Accessed 27 May 2015].
[60] Zadeh, L., 1965. Fuzzy Sets Information and Control. Information and Control, Volume 8(3), pp. 338-353.
[61] Zakour, M. & Gillespie, D., 2013. Community Diaster Vulnerability: Theory and Practice. 1st ed. London: Springer.
指導教授 吳瑞賢(Ray-Shyan Wu) 審核日期 2015-7-6
推文 facebook   plurk   twitter   funp   google   live   udn   HD   myshare   reddit   netvibes   friend   youpush   delicious   baidu   
網路書籤 Google bookmarks   del.icio.us   hemidemi   myshare   

若有論文相關問題,請聯絡國立中央大學圖書館推廣服務組 TEL:(03)422-7151轉57407,或E-mail聯絡  - 隱私權政策聲明