博碩士論文 102424017 詳細資訊




以作者查詢圖書館館藏 以作者查詢臺灣博碩士 以作者查詢全國書目 勘誤回報 、線上人數:49 、訪客IP:34.204.173.45
姓名 王英傑(YING-CHIEH WANG)  查詢紙本館藏   畢業系所 產業經濟研究所
論文名稱 景氣循環對婚育行為之影響
(The Impacts of Business Cycle on Marriage, Divorce and Fertility Behaviors .)
相關論文
★ 資訊科技的使用對製造業廠商生產力之影響★ 寶島債介紹及發展前景
★ 電腦軟體與資料庫的採用與對廠商績效的影響- 台灣製造業的研究★ 中國新高技術園區技術效率及其影響因素的研究
★ 政府管控房地產政策對不動產市場及 銀行不動產授信業務之影響★ 貿易、技術與薪資溢酬
★ 聚集與生產力:台灣紡織產業的實證研究★ 勞工派遣與正職受僱型態之實證研究-金融海嘯前後之分析比較
★ 影響政府採購效率之實證研究—以某縣市政府為例★ 台灣民眾轉換從業身分的決策以及「不景氣-推擠」假說之檢定
★ 汽車燃油效率、反彈效果與特徵價格之研究★ Three Essays on the Industrial Economics
★ 研究發展與技術購買-台灣製造業之實證研究★ 合併廠商的績效表現與決策因素分析
★ 合併型態對廠商績效與股票報酬的影響★ 景氣循環對失業和工資的影響
檔案 [Endnote RIS 格式]    [Bibtex 格式]    [相關文章]   [文章引用]   [完整記錄]   [館藏目錄]   [檢視]  [下載]
  1. 本電子論文使用權限為同意立即開放。
  2. 已達開放權限電子全文僅授權使用者為學術研究之目的,進行個人非營利性質之檢索、閱讀、列印。
  3. 請遵守中華民國著作權法之相關規定,切勿任意重製、散佈、改作、轉貼、播送,以免觸法。

摘要(中) 過去數十年來,全球經歷過幾次重大的金融危機,影響家計單位的行為,本研究主要目的為檢測景氣循環對於台灣國民婚育行為:結婚、離婚、生育的影響,以及了解我國的婚育行為是順景氣循環或逆景氣循環,以及其他跟婚育行為有關之變數:教育、收入、之影響。
實證結果共分為兩部分,第一部分利用行政院主計總處1994年至2013年的縣市層級資料,探討景氣循環對婚育行為的影響。第二部分利用行政院主計總處2000年、2003年、2006年、2010年、2013年共五年分的人力資源調查附帶婦女婚育與就業調查,進行實證研究,探討景氣循環對女性生育意願的影響。
實證結果顯示,結婚率不受景氣影響。離婚率為逆景氣循環,當景氣不佳時,失業率在不同年齡層對離婚率有正向的影響,離婚率受到逆景氣循環影響最主要的年齡層為20歲至49歲,且越低教育程度失業率對離婚率的負向影響愈大。生育率為順景氣循環,當景氣不佳時,生育率有下降的現象。至於婦女婚育行為方面,則發現婦女生育意願在普遍在景氣不佳時降低,且高中教育程度的婦女的生育意願較低,但景氣循環的效果在近年有趨於不顯著的跡象。
摘要(英) There were several economic crises in the past decades that had catastrophic influence to households in the globe. The influence of business cycle on marriage behavior such like getting marry, divorce and birthing in Taiwan is the major issue of this study. The empirical study will help us define the marriage behavior in Taiwan is procyclical or countercyclical and the effects of education, income and sex ratio.
The empirical study will take two parts, first part will try to figure out the influence of business cycle on marriage behavior in county level that data was collected from Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and statistics, Executive Yuan, R. O. C. (Taiwan) from 1994 to 2013. Second part will focus on the effect of economic cycle on birthing will of female samples that data was collected from Survey Research Data Archive (SRDA) with specific years 2000, 2003, 2006, 2010 and 2013.
The empirical study shows there is no influence on getting married by business cycle. The divorce rate is countercyclical which means when macroeconomic turn down the divorce rate will get higher. The major impact was around the age from 25 to 45 that lower degree of education would have more negative impact .The result of female birthing will shows it would get lower when macroeconomic turn down and females with high school degree but the effect of macroeconomic has been demolishing recent years.
關鍵字(中) ★ 景氣循環
★ 婚育行為
★ 結婚率
★ 離婚率
★ 生育率
★ 生育意願
關鍵字(英) ★ business cycle
★ marriage
★ divorce rate
★ birth rate
★ fertility
論文目次 目錄
中文摘要 i
Abstract ii
目錄 iv
表目錄 v
第一章、緒論與研究動機 1
第二章、文獻回顧 3
2-1 婚姻的經濟意涵 3
2-2 總體經濟景氣循環對婚育行為的影響 5
2-3 勞動市場對婚育行為的影響 10
2-4 教育對婚育行為的影響 12
第三章、資料來源與研究方法 14
3-1 資料來源 14
3-2 縣市層級資料分析 14
3-3 婦女個人層級資料分析 17
第四章、實證結果 23
4-1 縣市層級資料-縣市別失業率對結婚率之影響 23
4-2 縣市層級資料-縣市別失業率對離婚率之影響 30
4-2-1 縣市層級資料-年齡層失業率對年齡層離婚率之影響 32
4-2-2 縣市層級資料-教育程度別失業率對離婚率的影響 38
4-3 縣市層級資料-失業率對粗生育率的影響 55
4-3-1 性別年齡層失業率對育齡婦女生育率的影響 58
4-3-2 教育程度失業率對育齡婦女生育率的影響 67
4-4 個人層級資料分析-婦女生育意願 73
4-4-1 個年度橫斷面分析 73
4-4-2 個人層級資料合併分析-婦女生育意願 80
第五章、結論 84
第六章、研究建議 86
參考文獻 87


參考文獻 中文文獻
1. 陳妍蒨、劉錦添、王齡懋(2014),「失業對離婚的影響」, 國立台灣大學經濟論叢

2. 余清祥、許添容(2004),「台灣地區鄉鎮市區生育率的空間與群集研究」,臺灣人口學會2004年年會暨「人口、家庭與國民健康政策回顧與展望」研討會

3. 黃修梅(2006),「台灣婦女教育程度與龍虎年效應對生育率之影響」,國立政治大學經濟學系碩士論文。

4. 陳信木、陳雅琪(2007),「教育對於婚姻的影響︰教育程度別女性初婚年齡模式」,台灣人口學會。

5. 劉君雅、鄧志松、唐代彪(2009),「臺灣低生育率之空間分析」,人口學刊,第39 期,2009 年12 月,頁119-155。

6. 吳慧靖(2009),「工作、經濟獨立、婚姻、女性就業與離婚風險」,國立臺北大學社會學系碩士班碩士論文。

7. 林侑靜(2010),「教育對生育行為的影響」,國立中央大學產業經濟研究所碩士班碩士論文。

8. 戴君怡(2012),「相對地位對生育決策的影響-以女性收入及教育為例」,國立中央大學產業經濟研究所碩士論文。

9. 英文文獻

1. Ahn, N. and Mira, P. (2001). "“Job Bust, Baby Bust? Evidence from Spain," Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 14, No. 3, pp. 505-521.

2. Amato, P.R., Booth, A., Johnson, D. and Rogers, S. (2007). “"Alone Together: How Marriage in America is Changing,” Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA.

3. Amato, Paul R., and Brett Beattie (2011). “Does the Unemployment Rate Affect the Divorce Rate? An Analysis of State Data 1960‐2005,” Social Science Research, Vol. 40, Iss. 3, pp.705‐715.

4. Becker, Gary S & Landes, Elisabeth M and Michael, Robert T. (1977). ”An Economic Analysis of Marital Instability,” Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, Vol. 85, No. 6, pp. 1141-1187.

5. Brines, Julie and Kara Joyner (1999). “The Ties the Bind: Principles of Cohesion in Cohabitation and Marriage,” " American Sociological Review, Vol. 64, No. 3, pp. 333‐355.

6. Charles, K.K. and Stephens, M. (2004). “Job Displacement, Disability, and Divorce.” Journal of Labor Economics, Vol. 22, No. 2, pp.489-522.

7. Cherlin AJ (1992) “Marriage, Divorce, Remarriage (revised and enlarged edition).” Harvard University Press.

8. Chowdhury, A. (2011). “Til Recession Do Us Part: Booms, Busts, and Divorce in the United States,” Department of Economics Working Paper College of Business Administration.

9. Conger, R. D., Elder, G. H., Lorenz, F. O., Conger, K. J. Simons, R. L., Whitbeck, L. B., Huck, S. and Melby, J. N. (1990). “Linking Economic Hardship to Marital Quality and Instability,” Journal of Marriage and Family, Vol. 52, No. 3, pp. 643-656.

10. Del Bono E (2001). “Estimating Fertility Responses to Expectations: Evidence from the 1958 British Cohort,” Pembroke College, University of Oxford.


11. De la Rica S, Ariza A, Ugidos A (2002). “The effect of part-time work on fertility: a comparative analysis of selected European countries using longitudinal data,” Universidad del País Vasco.

12. Eliason, M. (2012). “Lost Jobs, Broken Marriages,” Journal of Population Economics,Vol. 25, 1365–1397.

13. Fischer, T. and Aart C. Liefbroer. (2006). “For Richer, For Poorer: The Impact of Macroeconomic Conditions on Union Dissolution Rates in the Netherlands 1972-1996,” European Sociological Review, Vol. 22, No. 5, pp. 519-532.

14. Gutiérrez-Domènech, M. (2008). “The Impact of the Labour Market on the Timing of Marriage and Births in Spain," Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 21, No. 1, pp. 83-110.

15. Hoem B, Hoem J (1989) ”The Impact of Women’s Employment on Second and Third Births In Modern Sweden,” Population Studies, Vol. 43, pp.47–67.

16. Hoynes H.W., Miller, D.L, and Schaller J. (2012). “Who Suffers in Recessions and Jobless Recoveries ?”Working Paper.

17. Jessamyn, S. (2013). "For Richer, If Mot for Poorer ? Marriage and Divorce over the Business Cycle." Journal of population economics: journal of the European Society for Population Economics (ESPE), Vol. 26, pp. 1007-1033.

18. Hellerstein, J. K., Morrill, M. S. and Zou, B. (2012). “Business cycles and divorce: Evidence from microdata,” Economics Letters Vol. 118, Iss. 1, pp. 68-70.

19. Kondo A. (2007). “Differential Effects of Graduating During A Recession Across Race and Gender,” ISERP working paper 07-05, Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy, Columbia University, New York.

20. Kondo, A. (2012). “Gender-specific labor market conditions and family formation,” Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 25, No. 1, pp.151-174.

21. Liefbroer, T. F. a. A. C. (2006). “For Richer, for Poorer: The Impact of Macroeconomic Conditions on Union Dissolution Rates in the Netherlands 1972–1996,” European Sociological Review ,Vol. 22, No. 5, pp. 519–532.

22. Morrilly, J. K. H. M. S. (2011). “Booms, Busts, and Divorce,” The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy , Vol. 11, Iss. 1, Article 54.

23. Oppenheimer, V. K., and Lew, V. (1995). “American Marriage Formation in the Eighties: How Important Was Women’s Economic Independence?” In K. Oppenheim Mason & A.-M. Jensen (Eds.), Gender and family change in industrialized countries, pp. 105–138).

24. Peterson, R., (1996). “A Re-evaluation of the Economic Consequences of Divorce,” American Sociological Review, Vol. 61, No. 3, pp. 528-536.

25. Paul R. Amato , B. B. (2011). “Does the Unemployment Rate Affect the Divorce Rate? An Analysis of State Data 1960–2005,” Social Science Research Vol. 40, Iss. 3, pp. 705-715.

26. Ruggles, S. K. a. S. (2014). “Breaking Up Is Hard to Count: The Rise of Divorce in the United States, 1980–2010,” Demography, Vol. 51, Iss. 2, pp.587-598.

27. South, S. J. (1985) “Economic Conditions and the Divorce Rate: A Time‐Series Analysis of the Postwar United States,” Journal of Marriage and Family, Vol. 47, No. 1,pp. 31‐41.

28. Schultz TP (1994). “Marital Status and Fertility in the United States: Welfare and Labor Market Effects,” The Journal of Human Resources, Vol. 29, No. 2, pp. 637-669.

29. Schultz, T. Paul. (1994). ”Human Capital, Family Planning , and Their Effects on Population Growth,”The American Economic Review, Vol. 84, No. 2, pp. 255-260.

30. Serafini, J. B. a. B. (2011). ”War, Recession, and Marital Instability: Conditional Effects of Uncertainty in Washington State, 2000‐2010,” Journal of Human Resources.

31. Wilcox, W.B. (2009). “The Great Recession’s Silver Lining. " In: Wilcox, W. B. (Ed.),”The State of Our Unions: Marriage in America 2009. " The National Marriage Project, Charlottesville, pp. 15-22.
指導教授 鄒孟文 審核日期 2015-7-16
推文 facebook   plurk   twitter   funp   google   live   udn   HD   myshare   reddit   netvibes   friend   youpush   delicious   baidu   
網路書籤 Google bookmarks   del.icio.us   hemidemi   myshare   

若有論文相關問題,請聯絡國立中央大學圖書館推廣服務組 TEL:(03)422-7151轉57407,或E-mail聯絡  - 隱私權政策聲明