博碩士論文 102621004 詳細資訊




以作者查詢圖書館館藏 以作者查詢臺灣博碩士 以作者查詢全國書目 勘誤回報 、線上人數:7 、訪客IP:18.204.56.104
姓名 周立磐(Li-pan Chou)  查詢紙本館藏   畢業系所 大氣科學學系
論文名稱 1961-2011年間臺灣颱風降雨強度變化及其可能原因
相關論文
★ 臺灣地區乾旱問題之分析★ 1961-2015年間受全球暖化影響下台灣不同季節降雨的變化趨勢
檔案 [Endnote RIS 格式]    [Bibtex 格式]    [相關文章]   [文章引用]   [完整記錄]   [館藏目錄]   [檢視]  [下載]
  1. 本電子論文使用權限為同意立即開放。
  2. 已達開放權限電子全文僅授權使用者為學術研究之目的,進行個人非營利性質之檢索、閱讀、列印。
  3. 請遵守中華民國著作權法之相關規定,切勿任意重製、散佈、改作、轉貼、播送,以免觸法。

摘要(中) 全球暖化可能會改變地區的降雨頻率和強度,許多研究分析不同區域的觀測資料皆發現有中、小雨減少,強降雨增加的情形。本研究運用中央氣象局 (Central Weather Bureau, CWB)二十一個觀測站降雨資料及美國國家氣候中心 (National Climate Data Center, NCDC)的全球溫度距平資料分析臺灣的降雨強度隨全球溫度的變化。臺灣有許多的極端降雨是由颱風造成;因此,臺灣極端降雨的變化可能與侵襲臺灣颱風特性的變化有關係。本研究分析了十個不同強度的降雨隨全球溫度的變化,我們將降雨分為颱風降雨、非颱風降雨和季風降雨,並將颱風降雨以颱風的數目、日數和移動速度標準化。
  分析結果發現不同類型的降雨變化在定性和定量的結果都很類似,皆呈現中小雨減少、強降雨增加的情形,且強降雨的增加幅度隨降雨強度越大則增加越多,而考慮侵襲臺灣颱風的特性變化後結果也無太大差異。顯示臺灣的降雨不論是否由颱風造成,其變化的主要原因應皆是因為全球暖化。其中最強的10%颱風、非颱風和季風降雨分別隨全球地表溫度增加一度而增加了約125 %、76 %和85 %;而最弱的10%降雨則分別減少了25 %、46 %和63 %。另外,為驗證臺灣降雨的改變是因水氣增加導致,我們也運用三個再分析資料計算了西北太平洋地區和沿侵襲台灣颱風路徑的可降水量變化,結果皆呈現顯著增加的趨勢。根據跨政府氣候變遷委員會第五次氣候變遷評估報告 (2013),全球暖化非常可能會持續數十年以上且暖化速度會增加,使臺灣暴露於更嚴重的水旱災風險中。
摘要(英) Global warming can change the frequency and intensity of regional precipita-tion. Significant increase of heavy precipitation and decrease of light and moderate precipitation have been found in many areas of the world. Daily precipitation data from 21 stations of the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) in Taiwan and global surface temperature anomalies from the National Climate Data Center (NCDC) from 1961 to 2011 are analyzed in this study to characterize changes in the precipitation intensity in Taiwan. Located in a region of dense typhoon tracks, Taiwan’s precipitation extremes are greatly affected by typhoons. In this study, annual total precipitation is partitioned into categories of typhoon, non-typhoon and monsoon precipitation. In addition, each category of precipitation is divided into ten bins of equal amount of precipitation according to their precipitation intensity.
  We have found that all categories of precipitation change with global temper-ature in a consistent manner, which is characterized by decreases in light and moderate precipitation, but increases in heavy precipitation. The rate of increase is greater at heavier precipitation, suggesting that the observed significant increase of extreme heavy precipitation in Taiwan can be mainly attributed to global warming instead of changes in typhoon characteristics. Increases in the top 10%bins of typhoon, non-typhoon and monsoon precipitation are about 125%, 76%and 85%, while decreases in the bottom 10% bins are about 25%, 46% and 63%for each degree Kelvin (K) warming in global mean temperature, respectively. Moreover, analysis of precipitable water in the western North Pacific and along the tracks of typhoons affecting Taiwan also shows a significant increase in the past few decades. This provides further support for the theory of global warming as the cause of the increases in extremely heavy precipitation in all three catego-ries of precipitation.
關鍵字(中) ★ 氣候變遷
★ 全球暖化
★ 颱風
★ 極端降雨
★ 降雨強度
關鍵字(英)
論文目次 摘要 i
Abstract ii
致謝 iv
目錄 v
表目錄 vii
圖目錄 viii
一、緒論 1
1-1 前言與文獻回顧 1
1-2 研究目的與動機 6
二、資料來源與研究方法 7
2-1 資料來源 7
2-2 研究方法 9
2-2-1 颱風日及颱風降雨的定義方法 9
2-2-2 降雨分類 10
2-2-3 年際變異法 11
三、結果與討論 15
3-1 臺灣區域及西北太平洋的颱風特性變化 15
3-2 臺灣降雨隨溫度的變化關係 16
3-2-1 颱風降雨強度的變化 16
3-2-2 颱風降雨和其他類型降雨強度變化之比較 17
3-2-3 總降雨量變化 21
3-3 臺灣降雨隨南方震盪的變化關係 22
3-3-1 降雨強度隨南方震盪的變化 22
3-3-2 總降雨量隨南方震盪的變化 23
3-4 可降水量的變化趨勢 23
3-4-1 西北太平洋地區的可降水量變化 23
3-4-2 沿颱風路徑的可降水量變化 24
四、結論與未來展望 26
參考文獻 28
附表 34
附圖 39
參考文獻 周佳與劉紹臣,2012:全球氣候變遷觀測。大氣科學,40(3),185-225。
Adler, R. F., G. Gu, J. J. Wang, G. J. Huffman, S. Curtis, and D. Bolvin, 2008: Rel-ationships between global precipitation and surface temperature on internatio-nal and longer timescales (1979-2006), J. Geophys. Res., 113, D22104.
Allan, R. P., and B. J. Soden, 2008: Atmospheric warming and the amplification of precipitation extremes, Science, 321, 1481– 1484.
Camargo, S. J. and A. H. Sobel, 2005: Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity and ENSO, J. Clim., 18, 2996–3006.
Chadwick, R., I. Boutle, and G. Martin, 2013: Spatial patterns of precipitation change in CMIP5: Why the rich do not get richer in the tropics, J. Clim., 26, 3803-3822.
Chan, J. C. L., 2006: Comments on “Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment”. Science, 311, 1713.
Chang, C. P., Y. Lei, C. H. Sui, X. Lin and F. Ren, 2012: Tropical cyclone and extre-me rainfall trends in East Asian summer monsoon since mid-20th century, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L18702.
Chang, C. P., Y. T. Yang and H. C. Kuo, 2013: Large increasing trend of tropical cyclone rainfall in Taiwan and the role of terrain, J. Clim., 26, 4138–4147.
Chen, J. M., T. Li and C. F. Shih, 2010: Tropical cyclone and monsoon-induced rainfall variability in Taiwan, J. Clim., 23, 4107–4120,
Chen, J. M. and H. S. Chen, 2011: Interdecadal variability of summer rainfall in Taiwan associated with tropical cyclones and monsoon, J. Clim., 24, 5786–5798.
Chen, S.T., C. C. Kuo, P. S. Yu, 2009: Historical trends and variability of meteorological droughts in Taiwan, Hydrol. Sci., 54(3), 430–441.
Chu, P. S., D. J. Chen, P. L. Lin, 2014: Trends in precipitation extremes during the typhoon season in Taiwan over the last 60 years, Atm. Sci. Lett., 15(1), 37-43.
Chu, P. S., J. H. Kim and Y. R. Chen, 2012: Have steering flows over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea changed over the last 50 years? Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L10704.
Chu, P. S., X. Zhao, C. T. Lee and M. M. Lu, 2007: Climate prediction of tropical cyclone activity in the vicinity of Taiwan using the multivariate least absolute deviation regression method, Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci., 18, 805–825.
Cubasch, U. et al., 2001: in Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis (Contrib-ution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergover-nmental Panel on Climate Change), Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK.
Dai, A., 2006: Recent climatology, variability, and trends in global surface humi-dity, J. Clim., 19, 3589–3606.
Dai, A. and K. E. Trenberth, 2004: The Diurnal Cycle and Its Depiction in the Community Climate System Model, J. Clim, 17, 930–951.
Dee, D. P. et al., 2011: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. R. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553–597.
Emanuel, K. A., 1987: The dependence of hurrican intensity on climate. Nature, 326, 483–485.
Emanuel, K. A., 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years, Nature, 436, 686–688.
Fujibe, F., N. Yamazaki, M. Katsuyama, and K. Kobayashi, 2005, The increasing trend of intense precipitation in Japan based on four-hourly data for a hundred years, Sci. Online Lett. Atmos., 1, 41–44.
Goswami, B. N., V. Venugopal, D. Sengupta, M. S. Madhusoodanan, and P. K. Xavier, 2006: Increasing trend of extreme rain events over India in a warming environment, Science, 314, 1442–1445.
Groisman, P. Y., R. W. Knight, D. R. Easterling, T. R. Karl, G. C. Hegerl, and V. A. N. Razuvaev, 2005, Trends in intense precipitation in the climate record, J. Clim., 18, 1326–1350.
Held, I. M., and B. J. Soden, 2006: Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming, J. Clim., 19, 5686-5699.
IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp.
IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Pa-nel on Climate Change. Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 pp.
Karl, T. R., and R. W. Knight, 1998: Secular trends of precipitation amount, freq-uency, and intensity in the United States, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 79, 231-242.
Klein Tank, A. M. G., and G. P. Können, 2003: Trends in indices of daily temp-erature and precipitation extremes in Europe, 1946–99, J. Clim., 16, 3665–3680.
Knapp, K. R., M. C. Kruk, D. H. Levinson, H. J. Diamond and C. J. Neumann, 2010: The international best track archive for climate stewardship (IBTrACS) unifying tropical cyclone data, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 91, 363–376.
Knutson, T. R., and S. Manabe, 1995: Time-mean response over the tropical Pac-ific to increased CO2 in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, J. Clim., 8, 2181-2199.
Knutson, T. R. and R. E. Tuleya, 2004: Impact of CO2-induced warming on simu-lated hurricane intensity and precipitation: Sensitivity to the choice of climate model and convective parameterization. J. Clim., 17, 3477–-3495.
Lau, K. M., and H. T. Wu, 2007: Detecting trends in tropical rainfall characteristics, 1979–2003, Int. J. Climatol., 27, 979–988.
Lenderink, G., and E. V. Meijgaard, 2008, Increase in hourly precipitation extremes beyond expectations from temperature changes, Nat. Geosci., 1, 511–514.
Lin, I.-I. and J. C. L. Chan, 2015: Recent decrease in typhoon destructive potential and global warming implications. Nat. Commun., 6, 7182.
Liu, B., M. Xu, M. Henderson, and Y. Qi, 2005, Observed trends of precipitation amount, frequency, and intensity in China, 1960–2000, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D08103.
Liu, S. C., C. Fu, C.-J. Shiu, J.-P. Chen, and F. Wu, 2009: Temperature dependence of global precipitation extremes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L17702.
Manton, M. J., et al., 2001: Trends in extreme daily rainfall and temperature in Southeast Asia and the South Pacific: 1961–1998, Int. J. Climatol., 21, 269–284.
McCarthy, M. P., P. W. Thorne, and H. A. Titchner, 2009: An analysis of troposph-eric humidity trends from radiosondes. J. Clim., 22, 5820–5838.
Qian, W., J. Fu, Z. Yan, 2007: Decrease of light rain events in summer associated with a warming environment in China during 1961–2005, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L11705.
Rienecker, M. M. et al., 2011: MERRA – NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Ana-lysis for Research and Applications. J. Clim., 24, 3624-3648.
Santer, B. D. et al., 2006: Forced and unforced ocean temperature changes in Atla-ntic and Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 103, 13905-13910.
Santer, B. D., et al., 2007: Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., 104, 15248–15253.
Shiu, C.-J., S. C. Liu, C. Fu, A. Dai, and Y. Sun, 2012: How much do precipitation extremes change in a warming climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L17707.
Simmons, A. J., K. M. Willett, P. D. Jones, P. W. Thorne, and D. P. Dee, 2010: Low-frequency variations in surface atmospheric humidity, temperature, and precipi¬tation: Inferences from reanalyses and monthly gridded observational data sets, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 115, D01110.
Smith, T. M., R. W. Reynolds, C. Peterson, and J. Lawrimore, 2008: Improvements to NOAA’s historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880-2006), J. Clim., 21, 2283-2293.
Su, S. H., H. C. Kuo, L. H. Hsu, and Y. T. Yang, 2012: Temporal and Spatial Chara-cteristics of Typhoon Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 90, 721-736.
Sun, Y., S. Solomon, A. G. Dai, and R. W. Portmann, 2007: How often will it rain? J. Clim., 20, 4801-4818.
Trenberth, K. E., 1998: Atmospheric moisture residence times and cycling: Impli-cations for rainfall rates with climate change, Clim. Change, 39, 667–694.
Trenberth, K. E., 1999: Conceptual framework for changes of extremes of the hydr-ological cycle with climate change, Clim. Change, 42, 327–339.
Trenberth, K. E., A. Dai, R. M. Rasmussen, and D. B. Parsons, 2003: The changing character of precipitation, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 84, 1205–1217.
Tu, J. Y., and C. Chou, 2013: Changes in precipitation frequency and intensity in the vicinity of Taiwan: Typhoon vs. non-typhoon events, Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 014023.
Uppala, S. M. et al., 2005: The ERA-40 re-analysis, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 131, 2961–3012.
Vecchi, G. A., and B. J. Soden, 2007: Global warming and the weakening of the tropical circulation, J. Clim., 20, 4316—4340.
Wang, C. C., B. X. Lin, C. T. Chen and S. H. Lo, 2015: Quantifying the Effects of Long-Term Climate Change on Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Using a Cloud-Resolving Model: Examples of Two Landfall Typhoons in Taiwan, J. Clim., 28, 66–85.
Webster, P. J., G. J. Holland, J. A. Curry, and H. R. Chang, 2005: Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment, Science, 309, 1844– 1846.
Wentz, F. J., L. Ricciardulli, K. Hilburn, and C. Mears, 2007: How much more rain will global warming bring? Science, 317, 233–235.
Willett, K. M., et al., 2013: HadISDH: an updateable land surface specific humidity product for climate monitoring, Clim. Past, 9, 657–677.
指導教授 劉紹臣(Shaw-chen Liu) 審核日期 2016-1-11
推文 facebook   plurk   twitter   funp   google   live   udn   HD   myshare   reddit   netvibes   friend   youpush   delicious   baidu   
網路書籤 Google bookmarks   del.icio.us   hemidemi   myshare   

若有論文相關問題,請聯絡國立中央大學圖書館推廣服務組 TEL:(03)422-7151轉57407,或E-mail聯絡  - 隱私權政策聲明