博碩士論文 103429009 詳細資訊




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姓名 田佳芬(Chia-Fen Tien)  查詢紙本館藏   畢業系所 經濟學系
論文名稱 人口結構變遷對電力需求之影響
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摘要(中) 本研究認為台灣經濟結構與人口結構變遷因素,對於台灣電力供需有一定的影響。台灣住戶及商業用電之歷年售電量由1945年的七萬三千度到2014年的六百億度,增加超過八百倍。當中經歷過台灣社會由農業轉為工商業為主的發展時代,也經歷過都會區形成的過程。因人口群聚效應而產生之工商業活動雖使台灣的用電需求不斷地增加。人口結構的變化因素,也將影響每家戶的電力消費行為。台灣已逐漸步入老年化社會,老齡人口比例的不斷攀升,電力供需的討論中應納入人口結構變遷的影響。故期望本研究的研究成果,能夠輔助政府未來電力供需規劃與政策參考。
本研究使用行政院主計總處所提供之《家庭收支調查資料庫》,資料期間為西元1999年至2014年,資料範圍為全台灣各縣市之家戶別資料。本研究使用家戶的人口結構特性和電力消費等變數,觀察出家戶特性對電力需求的影響,以及區域別之電力消費情況。同時考慮世代效果在家戶電力消費的差異,利用家戶戶長的出生年分,將其劃分成四個世代分別是熟年世代、嬰兒潮世代、X世代和Y世代,分析在家戶用電行為上是否存在有世代間的差異。
摘要(英) This study consider that Taiwan economic and population changing is important, when we discuss the electricity supply and demand of Taiwan. The residential and commercial electricity consumption of Taiwan had increased form 73 thousand kWh to 60 billion kWh during 1945-2014. It increases more than 800 times. During that period, Taiwan economic structure had transformed from agriculture to an industry, and also had occurred urbanization. The situation of population cluster because of commercialization and industrialization had continuously increasing electricity demand. This study consider that the changing of population structure will also affect electricity consumption. The population structure of Taiwan is gradually becoming an ageing society, ageing ratio is continuously increasing. The discussion of electricity supply and demand must consider the changing of population structure. And the study expect that the research result can help the government to make the electricity supply and demand policy in the future.
This study use the data of “Report on the Survey of Family Income & Expenditure ” which obtained from Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan, R.O.C. We use the individual family data during 1999 to 2014 in whole Taiwan county. The study use demographic, household characteristics and other variables, in order to observe the effects of household characteristics demand for electricity and the difference of electricity consumption by region.
And we considering the cohort effect, we use the age of the householder to divide the population into four generation. We analysis the difference of the electricity consumption behavior of each generation.
關鍵字(中) ★ 人口結構
★ 電力需求
★ 老齡化
★ 用電行為
★ 家庭收支調查
★ 世代效果
關鍵字(英) ★ Population structure
★ Energy Demand
★ Aging
★ Behavior of Electricity
★ Survey of Family Income and Expenditure
★ Cohort effect
論文目次 目 錄
摘 要......i
Abstract......ii
誌 謝......iii
目 錄......iv
圖目錄......vi
表目錄......vii
一、緒 論......- 1 -
1-1研究背景......- 1 -
1-2研究目的......- 1 -
1-3研究流程......- 6 -
二、文獻回顧......- 7 -
2-1 人口因素......- 7 -
2-2 世代效果......- 8 -
2-2 國外文獻......- 9 -
三、研究方法......- 17 -
3-1研究動機與目的......- 18 -
3-2研究範圍與方法......- 19 -
四、實證模型設定......- 22 -
4-1樣本資料處理......- 22 -
4-2變數資料說明......- 23 -
4-3 敘述統計......- 27 -
4-4 考慮世代效果......- 31 -
4-5實證結果......- 34 -
4-6模型共線性檢定......- 42 -
五、結論與建議......- 44 -
六、未來研究方向......- 45 -
參考文獻......- 46 -
附錄......- 51 -
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指導教授 梁啟源、吳大任(Ci-Yuan Liang Da-Ren Wu) 審核日期 2016-7-12
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