博碩士論文 103621007 詳細資訊




以作者查詢圖書館館藏 以作者查詢臺灣博碩士 以作者查詢全國書目 勘誤回報 、線上人數:16 、訪客IP:18.206.48.142
姓名 陳文柔(Wen-Jou Chen)  查詢紙本館藏   畢業系所 大氣科學學系
論文名稱 掩星資料於颱風快速增強機制之模擬研究-梅姬颱風(2010)
相關論文
★ 應用SSM/I衛星資料於西太平洋颱風特性之分析★ 應用衛星資料於熱帶氣旋之環境場分析
★ 衛星資料反演海氣參數及其在梅雨期海上中尺度對流系統生成發展之應用★ 應用SSM/I衛星資料分析桃芝與納莉颱風之降雨及海氣參數的變化
★ 利用Spot 4衛星的Vegetation資料比較NDVI, ARVI, 及AFRI植被指數與氣溶膠厚度之關係★ 應用衛星資料分析颱風降雨與颱風強度變化之關係
★ 應用SSM/I衛星資料於颱風中心定位及最大風速估算★ 應用衛星資料分析海氣參數與颱風強度變化之關係
★ MODIS在生質燃燒監測之應用研究★ 應用SSM/I衛星觀測資料估算颱風定量降水
★ AMSU衛星資料反演大氣溫濕剖面及其在颱風強度估算上之應用★ 利用HHT之EMD方法分析SSM/I資料估算之客觀指數與颱風強度年際變化關係
★ 模式和SSM/I客觀潛力指數在中尺度對流系統預報上之應用★ SSM/I衛星資料估算之客觀潛力指數與颱風強度變化之關係
★ 應用SSM/I衛星資料分析颱風形成之激發機制★ 衛星資料估算颱風旋轉及強度變化在熱帶氣旋定量降雨預測之研究
檔案 [Endnote RIS 格式]    [Bibtex 格式]    [相關文章]   [文章引用]   [完整記錄]   [館藏目錄]   至系統瀏覽論文 (2020-8-1以後開放)
摘要(中) 快速增強的颱風在預報上一直是個挑戰,由於增強速度快,常使得應變不及而造成重大損害;Charney and Eliassen, 1964; Ogura, 1964和Ooyama, 1969指出,颱風增強的主要因素來自眼牆周圍雲帶的對流系統所造成的正回饋循環。其回饋機制依序為由底層輻合帶動颱風眼牆周遭的氣流上升,而上升氣流致使飽和水氣凝結並於過程中釋放潛熱,而在颱風上層形成暖心,有利維持颱風強度;氣流傳送到颱風頂層後以輻散方式流出,輻散氣流又帶動下層氣流往上升,如此反覆而形成對流的正回饋,使得颱風不斷增強,並且垂直風切須小於一定的門檻值,以免破壞颱風結構,因此在探討快速增強颱風時,在颱風的垂直運動及結構上的幾個重要大氣參數,需要有好的觀測及模擬。
本篇研究選用2010年的快速增強個案梅姬颱風,使用GSI 3D-Var 3.3版本資料同化系統同化高垂直解析度的GPS RO溫、溼度剖線觀測資料,以期獲得更好的模式初始場;接著利用WRF 3.6.1版本進行模擬,結果發現同化GPS RO的實驗組比起只同化GTS觀測資料的實驗組,在強度上有明顯改善且靠近觀測。探討颱風快速增強過程中的幾個重要機制:輻合場、垂直速度、潛熱釋放造成的暖心結構、風切大小、CAPE值和中對流層的相對溼度等,同化RO的實驗組皆有較好的表現。
最後也進行兩個敏感度測試,第一,發現500百帕以下的RO溫、溼度觀測在強度模擬上扮演重要的角色,第二,同化的RO數目減半所模擬的強度大致介於GTS和GTS+RO實驗組之間。
摘要(英)
Rapid-Intensification (RI) typhoon forecast remains a critical challenge, it usually causes severe damage all at once. According to the previous research, a critical mechanism for reducing rapid-intensifying typhoons was “the positive feedback” occurred in or near the eyewall region. That is, for low-level convergence enhances upward flow motion, latent heat then releases to surroundings causing a warm-core in mid-upper-level. Warm-core structure helps to maintain typhoon intensity; then divergence in upper level pulls lower flow to transport updraft at the same time, and it finally forms second circulation that intensifies typhoons.
In this study, we conducted a 48-hour data assimilation and a 72-hour forecast experiment by using GSI 3D-Var v3.3 data assimilation system and WRF model 3.6.1 version. An rapid-intensifying typhoon Megi(2010) was chosen to analyze the RI processes from two sets of experiments, i.e., from the assimilation of GTS only and GTS with RO data. These two experiments will used to evaluate two different atmospheric states in the initial fields and followed typhoon forecasts in the RI stages.
Some important RI mechanisms were analyzed, such as convergence, vertical velocity, wind shear, 700 hPa relative humidity and temperature anomaly. GTS+RO experiment gave positive impact to the typhoon simulation.
Sensitivity tests show that RO profiles below 500hPa played an important role in the improvement of intensity; Moreover, assimilating lower number of RO profiles will degrade the forecast performance but not in linear relationship with the used RO data.
關鍵字(中) ★ 掩星資料
★ 快速增強
關鍵字(英)
論文目次
摘要 I
Abstract III
誌謝 IV
第一章 緒論 1
1.1前言 1
1.2文獻回顧 3
1.3研究動機與目的 6
第二章 資料介紹 9
2.1 GTS傳統觀測資料 9
2.2 FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC 掩星資料 9
2.3 NCEP FNL 11
2.4 ERA-Interim 再分析資料 11
2.5 JTWC最佳路徑 11
第三章 研究方法 13
3.1掩星觀測產品 13
3.2 GSI資料同化系統 13
3.3 模式介紹 14
3.4 個案介紹 15
3.5 實驗設計 15
第四章 研究結果 17
4.1同化結果分析 17
4.2模擬結果分析 23
第五章 敏感度測試 32
5.1 RO資料同化對於大氣高低層的影響 32
5.2 RO數量的影響 33
第六章 結論 34
參考文獻 38
表 41
圖 43
參考文獻
Anthes, R. A, 2011: Exploring Earth′s atmosphere with radio occultation: contributions to weather, climate and space weather, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 4, 1077-1103, doi:10.5194/amt-4-1077-2011
Anthes, R. A., Bernhardt, P. A., Chen, Y., Cucurull, L., Dymond, K. F., Ector, D., Healy, S. B., Ho, S. P., Hunt, D. C., Kuo, Y.-H., Liu, H., Manning, K., McCormick, C., Meehan, T. K., Randel, W. J., Rocken, C., Schreiner,W. S., Sokolovskiy, S.V., Syndergaard, S., Thompson, D. C., Trenberth, K. E., Wee, T. K., Yen, N. L., and Zeng, Z. , 2008: The COSMIC/FORMOSAT-3 Mission-Early results, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 89, 313–333.
Charney, J. G., and A. Eliassen, 1964: On the growth of the hurricane depression. J. Atmos. Sci., 21, 68–75, doi: 10.1175/ 1520-0469
Cheung, K. K. W., 2004: Large-scale environmental parameters associated with tropical cyclone formations in the Western North Pacific. J. Climate, 17, 466-484
Chen, S. Y., T. K. Wee, Y.-H. Kuo, and D. H. Bromwich, 2014: An impact assessment of GPS radio occultation data on prediction of a rapidly developing cyclone over the Southern Ocean. Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 4187–4206, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-14-00024.1.
Cucurull, L., J.C. Derber, R. Treadon and R.J. Purser, 2007: Assimilation of Global Positioning System radio occultation observations into NCEP’s global data assimilation system. Mon. Wea. Rev, 135, 3174–3193, doi:10.1175/MWR3461.1
Demaria, M., 1996: The effect of vertical shear on tropical cyclone intensity change. J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 2076-2087
Demaria, M., J. A. Knaff and B. H. Connell, 2001: A tropical cyclone genesis parameter for the tropical Atlantic, Wea. Atmos. Forecasting., 16, 219-233
Ebert, E. E., and G. J. Holland, 1992: Observations of record deep convection in Tropical Cyclone Hilda. Mon. Wea. Rev., 120, 2240–2251.
Gallina, G. M., and C. S. Velden, 2002: Environmental vertical wind shear and tropical cyclone intensity change utilizing enhanced satellite derived wind information. Extended Abstracts, 25th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, San Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 172–173.
Gray, W. M., 1968: Global view of the origin of tropical disturbances and storms. Mon. Wea. Rev., 96,638-641
Gray, W. M., 1979: Hurricanes: their formation, structure and likely role in the tropical circulation. Supplement of Meteorology Over the Tropical Oceans. Published by RMS, James Glaisher House, Grenville Place, Bracknell,Berkshire, RG 12 1BX, D. B. Shaw, (ed)., 155-218.
Gurvich, A. S. and T. G. Krasil’nikova, 1990: Navigation satellites for radio sensing of the Earth’s atmosphere, Sov. J. Remote Sensing, 6, 1124–1131.
Healy, S. B., and J.-N. Thépaut, 2006: Assimilation experiments with CHAMP GPS radio occultation measurements. Q. J. R.Meteor. Soc., 132, 605–623, doi:10.1256/qj.04.182
Hendricks, E. A., and M. T. Montgomery, 2006: Rapid scan views of convectively generated mesovortices in sheared Tropical Cyclone Gustav (2002). Wea. Forecasting, 21, 1041–1050.
Huang, C. Y., Y. H. Kuo, S. H. Chen, and F. Vandenberghe, 2005: Improvements in typhoon forecasts with assimilated GPS occultation refractivity. Wea. Forecasting, 20, 931–953, doi:10.1175/WAF874.1.
Kunii, M., H. Seko, M. Ueno, Y. Shoji, T. Tsuda.,2012: Impact of Assimilation of GPS Radio Occultation Refractivity on the Forecast of Typhoon Usagi in 2007. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan ,90, 255-273.
Kursinski, E. R., Hajj, G. A., Hardy, K. R., Schofield, J. T., and Lin-field, R. 1997: Observing Earth’s atmosphere with radio occultation measurements, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 23429–23465
Liu, C. -Y., J. Li, S. -P. Ho, G. -R. Liu, T. -H. Lin, and C. -C. Young, 2016a: Retrieval of Atmospheric Thermodynamic State from Synergistic Use of Radio Occultation and Hyperspectral Infrared Radiances Observations, IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observation and Remote Sensing, 9, no. 2, doi:10.1109/JSTARS.2015.2444274
Liu, C. –Y., S. -C. Kuo, A. Lim, S. -C. Hsu, K. -H. Tseng, N. -C. Yeh, and Y. -C. Yang, 2016b: Optimal Use of Space-Borne Advanced Infrared and Microwave Soundings for Regional Numerical Weather Prediction, Remote Sens. 8(10), 816, doi:10.3390/rs8100816
Melbourne, W. G., Davis, E., Duncan, C., Hajj, G, Hardy, K., Kursinski, E., Meehan, T., Young, L., and Yunck, T. P., 1994: The application of spaceborne GPS to atmospheric limb sounding and global change monitoring, JPL Publ. 94–18, Pasadena, CA, 147
Ogura, Y., 1964: Frictionally controlled, thermally driven circulations in a circular vortex with application to tropical cyclones.J.Atmos.Sci.,21, 610–621
Ooyama, K., 1969: Numerical simulation of the life cycle of tropical cyclones, J.Atmos.Sci, 26, 3–40
Rabier, F., 2005: Overview of global data assimilation developments in numerical weather-prediction centres, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 131, pp. 3215–3233
Schulze, G. C., 2007: Atmospheric observations and numerical weather prediction. S. Afr. j. sci., 103(7-8), 318-323
Yunck, T. P, Liu, C.-H., and Ware, R. , 2000.: A history of GPS sounding, Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci., 11, 1–20
Zehr, R. M., 1992: Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Western North Pacific. NOAA Tech. Rep., 61,181
指導教授 劉千義、劉振榮(Chian-Yi Liu Gin-Rong Liu) 審核日期 2017-7-27
推文 facebook   plurk   twitter   funp   google   live   udn   HD   myshare   reddit   netvibes   friend   youpush   delicious   baidu   
網路書籤 Google bookmarks   del.icio.us   hemidemi   myshare   

若有論文相關問題,請聯絡國立中央大學圖書館推廣服務組 TEL:(03)422-7151轉57407,或E-mail聯絡  - 隱私權政策聲明