博碩士論文 103621010 詳細資訊




以作者查詢圖書館館藏 以作者查詢臺灣博碩士 以作者查詢全國書目 勘誤回報 、線上人數:11 、訪客IP:54.145.38.157
姓名 蔡伊其(I-Chi Tsai)  查詢紙本館藏   畢業系所 大氣科學學系
論文名稱 高解析衛星資料在颱風降雨估算技術評估及其應用
(Evaluation of high resolution satellite data in typhoon rainfall estimation and its application.)
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摘要(中) Kidder et al.(2005)提出 TRaP 方法,將衛星反演之降雨分佈平移,迅速估算熱帶氣旋未來可能帶來的降雨。陳(2010)修正 TRaP 方法,考量台灣地形效應的影響,並根據測站歷史降雨資料重新估算颱風降雨,稱為 I-TRaP。由於 I-TRaP 使用反演之降雨分布進行計算,如何獲得更好的颱風降雨分布仍然是很重要的課題。
在先前的研究中僅使用單一衛星的降雨產品,受限於掃描之時間解析度,隨著許多研究的發展,高解析多衛星合成之降雨產品已經有越來越好的表現,本研究比較幾種常見的全球多衛星產品(GSMaP、IMERG、PERSIANN),考慮於西北太平洋上的颱風強降雨之表現,結果以 GSMaP為最佳。微波反演過程的判定降雨型態,確實會對層狀性降雨與對流性降雨的分類產生錯誤判定,但對於降雨結果的影響不大。進一步討論於強降雨造成誤差的可能原因,與目前的輻射方法仍難以準確估計大氣液態水含量,在降雨誤差越大時大氣液態水含量的差異越大。
使用 GSMaP 降雨產品以 I-TRaP 估算台灣地區的颱風降雨,為了將不同降雨產品的結果突顯而對現行 I-TRaP 的版本進行調整,修正以往僅使用衛星平移後的總降雨量進行回歸,新增以個別資料點回歸,能夠有效增加大雨的預報結果。GSMaP 相較先前使用 SSMIS 的方法能有效預報較大降雨,同時由於 GSMaP 的高解析時空分布,更有利於台灣的颱風降雨預報。
摘要(英) The Tropical Rainfall Potential (TRaP) technique presented by Kidder et al. in 2005, shifting rainfall distribution from satellite retrieval, and forecasting rainfall for tropical cyclone. Chen(2010) improved TRaP rainfall forecast practicality by adding orographic effect with historical rainfall distribution(I-TRaP). Since I-TRaP forecast uses rainfall distribution from satellite, how to get better rainfall distribution is an important issue.
There is only single satellite rainfall product in past study, limited by temporal resolution. For many study, The performance of multi-satellite rainfall products with high spatial-temporal resolution(0.1°-0.25°, 0.5-3h) are getting better recently but less discussed on heavy rainfall especially for typhoon. This study compares few common multi-satellite products (GSMaP, IMERG, PERSIANN) with typhoon heavy rainfall in the North-West Pacific, GSMaP is better. There are different performance between convective and stratiform rainfall. Indeed, the PMW retrieval fail to classification in rainfall type determination during microwave rainfall retrieving, but not cause rainfall error. In addition, compare liquid water content and rainfall error, the PMW retrieval still cannot estimate liquid water accurately in moderate to heavy rainfall.
Apply GSMaP to I-TRaP and calculate typhoon rainfall forecast over Taiwan. In order to highlight satellite rainfall distribution, modify earlier method only revising total rainfall and using historical rainfall distribution, calculate rainfall regression by individual point. This method will predict more heavy rainfall but more false alarm. Compare earlier I-TRaP using SSMIS, GSMaP with high spatial-temporal resolution is more useful for I-TRaP forecast, and more prediction of heavy rainfall.
關鍵字(中) ★ 熱帶氣旋降雨潛勢
★ 全球衛星降雨產品
關鍵字(英) ★ I-TRaP
★ GSMaP
論文目次 摘要 I
Abstract II
致謝 III
目錄 IV
表目錄 VII
圖目錄 VIII
縮寫表 XII
衛星產品比較表 XIII
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 前言 1
1.2 文獻回顧 1
1.3 研究目的 5
第二章 資料蒐集與處理 6
2.1 SSM/I與SSMIS微波衛星資料 6
2.2 GSMaP全球衛星降雨資料 7
2.3 GPM全球降雨觀測任務衛星 10
2.3.1 雙波段降水雷達(Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar, DPR) 10
2.3.2 微波輻射儀(GPM Microwave Imager, GMI) 11
2.3.3 多衛星反演降雨整合產品(Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for GPM, IMERG) 12
2.4 PERSIANN-CCS衛星(紅外線)影像估計降雨產品 13
2.5 JTWC颱風最佳路徑資料 13
2.6 中央氣象局觀測站雨量資料 14
第三章 研究方法 15
3.1 衛星資料估算颱風降雨及I-TRaP預報之校驗方法 15
3.2 I-TRaP理論基礎 17
3.2.1 TRaP(Tropical Rainfall Potential, 熱帶降雨潛勢) 17
3.2.2 I-TRaP 17
3.2.2.1 網格資料庫 18
3.2.2.2 降雨估計修正方法 19
第四章 衛星反演降雨結果與討論 21
4.1 單元衛星差異比較 21
4.2 颱風之衛星降雨結果 22
4.3 衛星反演降雨誤差討論 24
4.3.1 降雨分類 24
4.3.2 回波頂高度(echo top height, ETH) 25
4.3.3 Precipitation Water Integrated(PWI) - Liquid 26
第五章 衛星反演降雨之應用比較 28
5.1 整體比較 28
5.2 個案探討 29
5.2.1 2016年梅姬颱風 29
5.2.2 2016年莫蘭蒂颱風 30
第六章 結論與未來展望 32
6.1 結論 32
6.2 GSMaP用於預報之討論 33
6.3 未來展望 34
參考文獻 36
參考網站 47
附表 48
附圖 56
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指導教授 劉振榮(Gin-Rong Liu) 審核日期 2018-7-23
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