接受者操作特徵曲線統計研究台灣地區電離層全電子含量地震前兆

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姓名

石艾伶(Ai-Ling Shih) 查詢紙本館藏

畢業系所

太空科學研究所

論文名稱

接受者操作特徵曲線統計研究台灣地區電離層全電子含量地震前兆
(An analysis of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve on seismo-ionospheric precursors of the TEC in Taiwan)

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摘要(中)

本論文將利用接受者操作特徵曲線(Receiver Operating Characteristic curve, ROC curve)統計研究台灣地區地震電離層前兆。中位數參考和z檢定將被用來偵測，台灣地區1994-1999年50筆規模M≥5.5地震期間的電離層F2層層峰電漿頻率和區域電離層GPS全電子含量(Total Electron Content)，以及1999-2014年129筆規模M≥5.5地震期間之全球電離層圖(Global Ionospheric Map, GIM)中TEC之電離層異常。首先，計算前1-15天移動中位數及其上下四分位間距，以建立參考並偵測增加異常(正異常)和減少異常(負異常)。藉由z檢定探討地震期間和整體觀測之異常發生，獲知負異常與正異常會分別顯著出現於地震前1-4天和23-28天。1994-1999年結果顯示F2層層峰電漿頻率負異常顯著出現於地震前1-3天之下午時段1200-2000 LT，而區域GPS TEC負異常則發生在地震前2-4天之下午時段1400-1600 LT。1999-2014結果則是GIM TEC負異常顯著出現在地震前1-3天下午時段1800-2200 LT。反觀正異常，其於1994-1999年F2層層峰電漿頻率會顯著出現於地震前15-17天之下午時段1300-1500 LT；1994-1999年區域GPS TEC，地震前24-28天，下午時段1200-1400 LT；1999-2014 GIM TEC，地震前23-28天，下午時段0900-1400 LT。進一步以地震前後7天、前後15天、前後30天等，建立參考，結果發現電離層正負異常之出現準30天周期特徵。ROC 曲線證實電離層異常前兆之出現正比於地震規模，顯示越大規模之地震將獲得較大之曲線下面積，說明越大規模地震越容易出現地震前兆。此外，門檻值p-value趨近於零，顯示電離層異常於台灣地區地震視為有效之前兆。

摘要(英)

Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (ROC curve) be used to study seismo-ionospheric precursor (SIP) in Taiwan. A median-based method together with the z test is detected the relationship between ionospheric F2-peak plasma frequency foF2 and 50 M≥5.5 earthquakes, local GPS TEC (Total Electron Content) and 50 M≥5.5 earthquakes 1994-1999, and GIM (Global Ionospheric Map) TEC 129 M≥5.5 earthquakes 1999-2014 in Taiwan. First, it is calculated that move 15-day median, upper quartile and lower quartile for create the reference range of upper bound and lower bound. The anomalies are two result that increase (positive) anomaly and decrease (negative) anomaly. In total, z-test is found that 1-4 days and 23-28 days before earthquake are negative anomaly and negative anomaly, respectively. In detail, the results of foF2 show that negative anomaly is in period of 1200-2000 LT 1-3 days before earthquake 1994-1999. However, GPS TEC shows that negative anomaly is in 1400-1600 LT 2-4 days before earthquake 1994-1999, and GIM TEC shows that negative anomaly is in 1800-2200 LT 1-3 days before earthquake 1999-2014. For positive anomaly, foF2 shows that increase in 1300-1500 LT 15-17 days, GPS TEC increase in 1200-1400 LT 24-28 days, and GIM increase in 0900-1400 LT 23-28 days. Further, different reference days (7, 15, and 30 days before and after earthquake) find that 30-days period of positive and negative anomaly. ROC curve shows that SIP is conﬁrmed since the area under the ROC curve is positively associated with the earthquake magnitude. In addition, p-value are approximately zero mean that SIPs are effective in Taiwan.

關鍵字(中)

★ 電離層
★ 地震
★ 前兆
★ 統計
★ ROC curve
★ z-test

關鍵字(英)

★ Ionosphere
★ earthquake

論文目次

摘要 i
ABSTRACT ii
誌謝 iii
目錄 iv
圖目錄 vi
表目錄 viii
一、緒論 1
1-1 地震電離層前兆 1
1-2 地震電離層前兆統計分析 4
1-3研究動機 6
二、資料分析與實驗設計 7
2-1 電離層層峰電漿頻率 7
2-2 全球定位系統全電子含量 9
2-3 全球電離層圖 11
2-4 異常判定 14
2-5 Z檢定 16
2-6 接收者操作特徵曲線 17
2-7 拔靴法 19
三、分析結果 20
3-1 台灣地區1999-2014年電離層圖全電子含量分析 21
3-2 台灣地區1994-1999電漿頻率分析 37
3-2 台灣地區1994-1999全球定位系統全電子含量分析 45
3-4拔靴法分析結果呈現 52
四、討論與結論 54
參考文獻 58
附錄A 60
附錄B 65

參考文獻

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指導教授

劉正彥(Jann-Yenq Liu)

審核日期

2016-7-28

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