耐久財與台灣景氣循環

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林祐任(Yu-Jen Lin) 查詢紙本館藏

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論文名稱

耐久財與台灣景氣循環
(Durable goods and businese cycles in Taiwan)

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摘要(中)

在台灣的年資料中可以發現台灣有消費過度波動的現象，為新興市場國家的特徵。本文參考Alvarez-Parra et al. (2013) 之模型，建立了一個兩部門模型，在考慮耐久財消費以及金融摩擦的情況下，解釋台灣所呈現的景氣循環現象及各變數面對正向生產力衝擊的反應函數。相對於其他新興市場國家，台灣的耐久財部門的消費及資本份額較高，本文的結果呈現台灣較易受到金融摩擦的影響，進而對進出口的波動有較大的貢獻。

摘要(英)

The excess volatility of consumption puzzle is identified in the Taiwanese data, which states that total consumption expenditure is more volatile than that of income. Based on Alvarez-Parra et al. (2013), this paper establishes a two-sector model to analyze the business cycle phenomenon in Taiwan and to conduct impulse response analyses of positive productivity shocks. Two main features of the model are durable consumption and financial friction. Compared to other emerging markets, Taiwan′s consumption and capital shares in the durable goods sector are higher. The simulation results demonstrate that the Taiwanese economy is prone to be affected by financial friction, which in turn contributes greatly to the volatility of net export.

關鍵字(中)

★ 台灣景氣循環
★ 耐久財消費

關鍵字(英)

★ businese cycles
★ durable goods

論文目次

摘要 iv
Abstract v
誌謝 vi
目錄 vii
一、緒論 1
二、文獻回顧 9
三、模型 12
3.1 設定 12
3.2 求解 14
3.3 靜止均衡 17
3.4 線性化結果 18
四、參數 22
五、分析 25
六、結論 32
七、參考文獻 33

參考文獻

廖先昱，(2014)，景氣循環與結構變遷之兩部門模型分析，臺灣大學經濟學研究所博士學位論文，1-112

Adolfson, M. S., Laseen, J. L., Villani M. (2007). Bayesian estimation of an open economy DSGE model with incomplete pass-through,
Journal of International Economics 72, 481–511.

Aguiar, M., Gopinath, G., (2007). Emerging market business cycles: the cycle is the trend. Journal of Political Economy 115, 69–102.

Alvarez-Parra, F., Brandao-Marques, L., Toledo, M. (2013). Durable goods, financial frictions, and businese cycles in the emerging economies.
Journal of Monetary Economics 60, 720-736

Baxter, M. (1996). Are consumer durables important for businese cycles? The Review of Economic and Statistics 78, 147-155.

Engel, C., Wang, J. (2011). International trade in durable goods: Understanding volatility, cyclicality, and elasticities.
Journal of International Economics 83, 37–52.

García-Cicco, J., Pancrazi, R., Uribe, M., (2010). Real business cycles in emerging countries? American Economic Review 100, 2510–2531.

Gomes, J. F., Kogan, L., Yogo, M., (2009). Durability of output and expected stock returns. Journal of Political Economy 117, 941–986.

Monacelli, T. (2009). New Keynesian models, durable goods, and collateral constraints. Journal of Monetary Economics 56, 242-254.

Neumeyer, P. A., Perri, F., (2005). Business cycles in emerginge conomies: the role of interestrates. Journal of Monetary Economics 52, 345–380.

Schmitt-Grohé, S., Uribe, M., (2003). Closing small open economy models. Journal of International Economics 61, 163–185.

Teo, W. L. (2009). An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the Taiwanese economy, Pacific Economic Review 14, 194-231.

Weder, M. (1998). Fickle consumers, durable goods, and business cycles. Journal of Economic Theory 81, 37-57.

指導教授

姚睿(Ruey Yau)

審核日期

2017-7-26

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