博碩士論文 104454015 詳細資訊




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姓名 馬筱芸(Hsiao-Yun Ma)  查詢紙本館藏   畢業系所 產業經濟研究所在職專班
論文名稱 跳脫中所得國家陷阱的決定因素:跨國研究
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摘要(中) 在經濟發展過程中,有些國家以飛快的速度,從低所得國家爬升為高所得國家,但有些國家發展至中所得國家即停滯不前,陷入中所得陷阱。本文以92個中所得國家1990年至2015年的panel data資料,採用panel probit模型及panel ordered probit模型進行估計,實證分析中所得國家能否成功跳脫中所得陷阱的影響因素。實證結果顯示,資本形成、教育及貿易開放程度等傳統經濟成長變數對脫離中所得陷阱存在正向顯著的關聯。創新活動也有助於中所得國家跳脫中所得陷阱。在制度變數方面,對於中所得國家而言,減少貪污現象以及提高民主化可以增加跳脫中所得陷阱的機率。
摘要(英) In the process of economic development, some countries experienced a fast economic growth, enabling them to become high-income countries from low-income countries. However, some countries struggle from low-income countries to middle-income countries and then stagnate, falling into falling into the middle income trap. This thesis aims to investigate the determinants of escaping the middle income trap. Based on a panel dataset of 92 middle income countries for the 1990-2015, we adopt panel probit model and panel ordered probit model to implement empirical estimations. Results show that traditional variables such as capital formation, education, and trade openness are associated with a positive relation with the probability of jumping to high-income countries. Innovation also helps escape the middle income trap. With regard to the institutional factors, both lowering the degree of corruption and raising the degree of democracy increase the probability of avoiding the middle income trap.
關鍵字(中) ★ 中所得陷阱
★ 貿易開放
★ 創新
★ 制度
關鍵字(英)
論文目次 摘要 i
Abstract ii
誌謝 iii
目錄 iv
圖目錄 v
表目錄 vi
一、 緒論 1
1-1 研究動機 1
1-2 研究目的及文章架構 2
二、 文獻回顧 4
2-1 中所得國家發展進程 4
2-1-1 教育程度及創新 5
2-1-2 開放程度及總體經濟環境 7
2-2 國外文獻回顧 9
2-2-1 中所得陷阱文獻 9
2-2-2 貪污對經濟發展影響文獻 12
2-2-3 民主對經濟發展影響文獻 13
三、 研究方法及實證模型 15
3-1 資料來源及模型設定 15
3-1-1 資料來源 15
3-1-2 實證模型及變數說明 16
3-2 模型說明 19
3-2-1 Panel probit模型說明 19
3-2-2 Panel ordered probit模型說明 21
3-3 樣本資料統計分析 22
四、 實證結果 23
4-1 Panel probit模型估計結果 23
4-2 Panel ordered probit模型估計結果 26
五、 結論 30
參考文獻 32
參考文獻
1、Bhagwati, Jagdish N. 2002. “Democracy and Development: Cruel Dilemma or Symbiotic Relationship? ” Review of Development Economics, 6(2), pp.151–162.
2、Bulman, David, Maya Eden and Ha Nguyen. 2014. “Transitioning from Low-Income Growth to High-Income Growth. Is There a Middle Income Trap? ” Policy Research Working Paper No.7104. World Bank, Washington DC.
3、Bulman, David, Maya Eden and Ha Nguyen. 2016. “Transitioning from Low-Income Growth to High-Income Growth. Is There a Middle Income Trap? ” Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 22(1).
4、Drury, Cooper A, Jonathan Krieckhaus and Michael Lusztig. 2006. “Corruption, Democracy, and Economic Growth” International Political Science Review, Vol 27, No. 2, pp.121–136.
5、Egawa, Akio. 2013. “Will Income Inequality Cause a Middle-Income Trap in Asia” National Institute for Research Advancement, Bruegel Working Paper.
6、Eichengreen, Barry, Donghyun Park and Kwanho Shin 2013. “ Growth Slowdowns Redux: New Evidence on the Middle-Income Trap” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No.18673.
7、Eichengreen, Barry. “Escaping the middle-income trap. ” University of California, Berkeley, http://www.kc.frb.org/publicat/sympos/2011/2011. Eichengreen. Re-marks. Pdf.
8、Felipe, Jesus. 2012.“Tracking the Middle-Income Trap: What is it, Who is in it, and Why?” ADB Economics Working Paper Series, No.306.
9、Gill, Indermit,and Homi Kharas. 2006. “An East Asian Renaissance: Ideas for Economic Growth” World Bank, Washington DC.
10、Kang, Byeongwoo, Kaoru Nabeshima and Fang-Ting Cheng. 2015. “Avoiding the Middle Income Trap: Indigenous innovative effort vs foreign innovative effort” Institute of Developing Economies Discussion Paper No.509.
11、Kharas, Homi, and Harinder Kohli. 2011. “What is the Middle Income Trap, Why do Countries Fall into It, and How Can It Be Avoided” Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies 3(3) pp. 281-289.
12、Leblang David A. 1997. “Political Democracy and Economic Growth: Pooled Cross-Sectional and Time-Series Evidence” British Journal of Political Science, 27, pp.453–472.
13、Mauro, Paolo. 1995. “Corruption and Growth” The Quarterly Journal of Econom-ics, Vol. 110, Issue. 3, pp. 681-712.
14、Mo, Pak Hung. 2001. “Corruption and Economic Growth” Journal of Compara-tive Economics, 29, pp.66–79.
15、Ohno, Kenichi. 2006. “Avoiding the Middle-Income Trap Renovating Industrial Policy Formulation in Vietnam” ASEAN Economic Bulletin Vol. 26, pp. 25–43.
16、Shleifer, Andrei and Robert W. Vishny. 1993. “Corruption” The Quarterly Jour-nal of Economics, Vol. 108, No. 3, pp. 599-617.
指導教授 楊志海、鄒孟文 審核日期 2017-8-10
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