博碩士論文 104621011 詳細資訊




以作者查詢圖書館館藏 以作者查詢臺灣博碩士 以作者查詢全國書目 勘誤回報 、線上人數:22 、訪客IP:54.166.160.105
姓名 蔡怡真(Yi-Chen Tsai)  查詢紙本館藏   畢業系所 大氣科學學系
論文名稱 1961-2015年間受全球暖化影響下台灣不同季節降雨的變化趨勢
相關論文
★ 宜蘭地區秋冬季降雨特性之研究★ 台灣地區午後對流降水特性之分析
★ 台灣梅雨季中尺度對流系統之數值模擬研究-TAMEX IOP 8 個案★ 利用整合探空系統分析南海北部大氣邊界層特性之研究
★ 中尺度波譜模式對梅雨期豪雨個案模擬之研究★ 宜蘭地區秋冬季豪大雨特性之研究
★ 台灣東南部地區局部環流與邊界層特性之研究★ 台灣東南部地區複雜地形局部環流的模擬研究
★ 宜蘭地區豪雨個案之研究★ 台灣北部地區雨滴粒徑分佈特性與降雨估計之探討
★ 冬季雹暴個案之分析與模擬★ 伴隨敏督利颱風的強烈西南氣流引發豪大雨之個案探討
★ 利用整合探空系統分析台灣東南部地區大氣邊界層特性之研究★ 桃芝颱風(2001)數值模擬研究:颱風路徑與結構之模擬與分析
★ 利用雨滴譜儀分析不同降水系統之微物理特性研究★ 台灣北部地區不同季節以及不同降水型態的雨滴粒徑分布特性
檔案 [Endnote RIS 格式]    [Bibtex 格式]    [檢視]  [下載]
  1. 本電子論文使用權限為同意立即開放。
  2. 已達開放權限電子全文僅授權使用者為學術研究之目的,進行個人非營利性質之檢索、閱讀、列印。
  3. 請遵守中華民國著作權法之相關規定,切勿任意重製、散佈、改作、轉貼、播送,以免觸法。

摘要(中) IPCC報告指出,在全球暖化氣候變遷影響下,極端事件可能會有增加的趨勢。Trenberth et al.(1999,2003)指出全球暖化可能會改變降雨的頻率、強度和延時;假設低層對流層的相對濕度保持一常數,根據Clausius–Clapeyron equation熱力關係式,計算出全球的水氣隨溫度的增加大約為7%K -1。另一方面,全球強降水的強度和頻率也有逐漸增加的趨勢,而且趨於兩極化,即雨季越濕、乾季越乾,但這些變化會隨著地區的改變而有所不同。
本篇研究運用Liu et al.(2009)提出的年際變異法(Interannual Difference Method,IDM),取得降雨強度與全球溫度距平(包含聖嬰等年際變化)關係上的定量結果:在1961-2015年間,台灣地區雖然總降雨量沒有明顯變化,但台灣的強降雨隨全球暖化有顯著增加,其中最強的前10%的降雨隨全球溫度增加約78%K -1,而十個強度的降雨隨溫度的變化量,隨降雨強度越強,有遞增的趨勢;因同一時期,中、小雨相對的減少,幾乎抵銷了強降雨增加的雨量,導致整體的總降雨量並沒有太大改變。另外,分析不同季節的降雨特性,發現降水強度最強的前10%的降水皆是增加,強度最弱的後10%的降水則都是減少,其降雨強度變化的趨勢與年變化趨勢大致一致;儘管增減幅度不一,甚至在台灣的雨季-梅雨季時的總降雨量是減少的,說明了台灣地區降雨隨氣候暖化的變化趨勢主要是受到「強降雨越強、弱降雨越弱」的機制驅動。
由過去研究顯示,造成劇烈降雨的氣象因子多且複雜。本篇為驗證台灣降雨的改變是因全球暖化,進而水氣增加等原因所導致,我們也運用再分析資料計算了台灣附近地區低層的相當位溫、垂直速度、水氣通量、可降水量等變化,結果呈現受到暖化影響,溫度、相當位溫及可降水量增加,同時在低層的水氣通量也因盛行風向而增多,加上有利的上升運動,特別是降雨強度前30%的降水顯著比過去增加。根據跨政府氣候變遷委員會第五次氣候變遷評估報告 (2013),未來降雨趨勢乾濕對比將越來越明顯。
摘要(英)
The IPCC report indicates that extreme events may increase under the climate change. Trenberth et al.(1999,2003) pointed out that global warming may change the frequency, intensity and timing of rainfall. Assume that the lower part of the troposphere has a constant amount of relative humidity, by using Clausius-Clapeyron equation , it could be calculated that the water vapor in the whole world would increase approximately 7%k-1. On the other hand, significant increase of heavy precipitation and decrease of light and moderate precipitation have been found in many areas of the world, that is, wet-get-wetter and dry-get-drier mechanism (WWDD) (Zhou et al. 2011; Chou et al. 2013). But these changes will vary with the region.
In this study, we use the Interannual Difference Method (IDM) proposed by Liu et al.(2009) to evaluate quantitative changes of rainfall intensity due to global temperature changes (including El Nin ̃o). During the period from 1961 to 2015, the heavy precipitation in Taiwan showed an increase due to global warming. The top 10% heaviest precipitation increased by about 78% K-1,but there were significant decreases in the light and moderate precipitation in the same period,so that the trends of Taiwan annual total precipitation did not change significantly. In addition,we also analyzed the trend of Taiwan’s precipitation in different seasons. We found that the amounts of top 10% heaviest precipitation have all increased ,but the amounts of bottom 10% lightest precipitation have all decreased. Even though the change in each season’s annual total precipitation in response to one degree Kelvin increase in the global mean temperature are quite different. Therefore we conclude that the seasonal precipitation in Taiwan is controlled by the heavy-precipitation-get-heavier and light-precipitation-get-lighter mechanism (HHLL) (Liu et al.,2016),rather than the wet-get-wetter and dry-get-drier mechanism (WWDD).
The meteorological factors affecting the strong rainfall are very complicated. We have analyzed changes in equivalent temperature, moisture flux and precipitable water in the western North Pacific between the first five years of data (1961-1965) and the last five years (2011-2015) to provide further support for the theory of global warming as the cause of the increases in extremely heavy precipitation.
關鍵字(中) ★ 年際變異法 關鍵字(英) ★ Interannual Different Method
論文目次
摘要 ………………………………………………… i
Abstract ………………………………………………… iii
致謝 ………………………………………………… v
目錄 ………………………………………………… vi
表目錄 ………………………………………………… vii
圖目錄 ………………………………………………… viii
一、 緒論…………………………………………… 1
1-1 前言與文獻回顧……………………………… 1
1-2 研究動機與目的……………………………… 8
二、 資料來源與研究方法………………………… 9
2-1 資料來源……………………………………… 9
2-1-1 降雨資料……………………………………… 9
2-1-2 溫度資料……………………………………… 9
2-1-3 聖嬰現象南方震盪指數……………………… 10
2-1-4 環境場資料…………………………………… 11
2-2 研究方法……………………………………… 11
2-2-1 降雨強度分級………………………………… 11
2-2-2 年際變異法…………………………………… 12
2-2-3 季節分類……………………………………… 14
三、 結果與討論…………………………………… 16
3-1 台灣降雨隨溫度的變化關係………………… 16
3-1-1 台灣總降雨強度變化………………………… 16
3-1-2 台灣不同季節降雨強度變化………………… 16
3-2 台灣降雨隨南方震盪的變化關係…………… 20
3-2-1 台灣降雨強度變化…………………………… 20
3-3 台灣附近環境場變化………………………… 21
3-3-1 梅雨季環境場差異…………………………… 21
3-3-2 夏季環境場差異……………………………… 23
四、 結論與未來展望……………………………… 25
參考文獻 ………………………………………………… 28
附表 ………………………………………………… 35
附圖 ………………………………………………… 40
參考文獻 周仲島、陳永明‚2009:臺灣地區劇烈降雨與侵臺颱風變異趨勢與辨
識研究, 氣候變遷對災害防治衝擊調適與因應策略整合研究 子
計畫一 。
周佳與劉紹臣‚2012:全球氣候變遷觀測。 大氣科學 , 40(3),
185-225。
周立磐‚2016:1961-2011 年間台灣颱風降雨強度變化及其可能原因。
國立中央大學碩士論文 ,13-21 頁。
朱吟晨、吳宜昭、林李耀,2010:低層大氣水氣通量對颱風降雨的影
響。 氣象災害防治組 / 國家災害防救科技中心 ,共 5 頁。
陳景森、陳宇能、林秉承、林沛練、劉哲伶、蘇炯瑞、彭文君‚ 2007:
梅雨季臺灣西南部豪雨之探討(1997~2006)。 大氣科學 ,
35,287-304。
陳泰然、廖珮娟‚2011:台灣地區冬季鋒面系統之天氣特徵研究。 國立
台灣大學 大氣科學研 究所 ,159 頁。
吳明進,1986:聖嬰/南方振盪現象, 科學月刊第 17 卷第 2 期 ,
107-112 頁。
王時鼎、鄭俠、徐晉淮與邱台光‚1985:五、六月間台灣地區暴雨之
環境條件。天氣分析與預報研討會論文彙編, 中央氣象局 ,
55-72 頁。
Adler, R. F., G. Gu,J. J. Wang, G. J. Huffman, S. Curtis,
and D. Bolvin,2008: Relationships between global
precipitation and surface temperature on
international and longer timescales (1979-2006),
J. Geophys. Res.,113, D22104.
Allan, R. P., and B. J. Soden, 2007: Large discrepancy
between observed and simulated precipitation trends
in the ascending and descending branches of the
tropical circulation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34,
L18705.
Allan, R. P., and B. J. Soden, 2008: Atmospheric warming
and the amplification of precipitation extremes,
Science, 321,1481-1484.
Chadwick, R., I. Boutle, and G. Martin, 2013: Spatial
patterns of precipitation change in CMIP5: Why the
rich do not get richer in the tropics, J. Clim., 26,
3803-3822.
Chang,C.-P. and G. T. -J. Chen, 1995: Tropical
circulations associated with southwest monsoon onset
and westerly surges over the South China Sea. Mon.
Wea. Rev., 123,3254-3267.
Chen, Y. -L., X. A. Chen, and Y.-X. Zhang, 1994: A
diagnostic study of the low-level jet (LLJ) during
TAMEX IOP5. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 2257-2284.
Chen, C. -S., and Y. -L. Chen, 2003: The rainfall
characteristics of Taiwan. Mon. Wea.Rev., 131,
1323-1341.
Chen C. -S, W. -C. Chen, Y. -L. Chen, P. -L. Lin, and H.
-C. Lai, 2005: Investigation of orographic effects
on two heavy rainfall events over southwestern
Taiwan during the Mei-Yu season. Atmospheric
Research, 73, 101-130.
Chen, C.-Y., Y.-L. Chen, C.-S. Chen, P.-L. Lin, and C.-L.
Liu, 2013: Revisit of a Heavy Rainfall Event over
Northern Taiwan on 3 June 1984. Atmos. Ocean. Sci.
accept.
Chou, C., and J. D. Neelin, 2004: Mechanisms of global
warming impacts on regional tropical precipitation.
J. Climate, 17, 2688-2701.
Chen, C.-S., C.-H. Lu, and W.-C. Chen, 2007:Numerical
experiments investigating the mechanisms of a heavy
rainfall event over northeastern Taiwan and a
mesovortex during TAMEX. Meteor. Atmos. Phys.,
95,155-177.
Chou C., Neelin J. D., Chen C.-A. & Tu J.-Y.‚2009:
Evaluating the “Rich-Get-Richer” Mechanism in
Tropical Precipitation Change under Global Warming.
J. Clim., 22, 1982-2005.
Chou, C., and C. A. Chen, 2010: Depth of convection and
the weakening of tropical circulation in global
warming. J. Climate, 23, 3019-3030.
Chou, C., J. C. H. Chiang, C. W. Lan, C. H. Chung, Y. C.
Liao, and C. J. Lee, 2013: Increase in the range
between wet and dry season precipitation. Nature
Geoscience, 6, 263-267.
Cubasch, U. et al., 2001: in Climate Change 2001: The
Scientific Basis (Contribution of Working Group I to
the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change), Cambridge Univ. Press,
Cambridge, UK.
Dai, A. and K. E. Trenberth, 2004: The Diurnal Cycle and
Its Depiction in the Community Climate System Model,
J. Clim, 17, 930-951.
Dai, A., 2006: Recent climatology, variability, and
trends in global surface humidity, J. Clim., 19 ,
3589-3606.
Goswami,B. N.,V. Venugopal, D. Sengupta, M. S.
Madhusoodanan, and P. K. Xavier, 2006:Increasing
trend of extreme rain events over India in a warming
environment, Science, 314, 1442-1445.
Held, I. M., and B. J. Soden, 2006: Robust responses of
the hydrological cycle to global warming, J. Clim.,
19 , 5686-5699.
IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers, Climate Change
2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of
Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and
New York, NY, USA, 996 pp.
IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science
Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change. Cambridge Univ.
Press,Cambridge,United Kingdom and New York, NY,
USA,1535pp.
Kalnay, E,, and coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-year
reanalysis project. Bulletin Amer. Meteoro. Soc.,
77, 437-471.
Karl, T. R., and R. W. Knight, 1998: Secular trends of
precipitation amount, frequency, and intensity in
the United States, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 79 ,
231-242.
Kim, J.-H., C.-H. Ho, M.-H. Lee, J.-H. Jeong, and D.
Chen, 2006: Large increase in heavy rainfall
associated with tropical cyclone landfalls in Korea
after the late 1970s. Geophy. Res. Lett.,33,L18706.
Knutson, T. R., and S. Manabe, 1995: Time-mean response
over the tropical Pacific to increased CO2 in a
coupled ocean-atmosphere model, J. Clim., 8, 2181-
2199.
Lau, K. M., and H. T. Wu, 2007: Detecting trends in
tropical rainfall characteristics, 1979–2003, Int.
J. Climatol., 27, 979-988.
Lau, K.-M., Y. P. Zhou, and H.-T. Wu, 2008: Have tropical
cyclones been feeding more extreme rainfall? J.
Geophys. Res., 113, D23113.
Lau, W. K. M., and Y. P. Zhou, 2012: Observed recent
trends in tropical cyclone rainfall over the North
Atlantic and the North Pacific. J. Geophys. Res.
117,D03104, 13 pp.
Liu, S. C., C. B. Fu, C. J. Shiu, J. P. Chen, and F. T.
Wu, 2009: Temperature dependence of global
precipitation extremes. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36,
L17702.
Liu, R., S. C. Liu, C.-J. Shiu, J. Li, and Y. Zhang,
2016: Trends of regional precipitation and their
control mechanisms during 1979–2013. Adv. Atmos.
Sci., 33(2), 164-174.
Merrill, R. T., 1988: Environmental influences on
hurricane intensification. J. Atmos. Sci., 45,
1678-1687.
Shiu, C.-J., S. C. Liu, C. Fu, A. Dai, and Y. Sun, 2012:
How much do precipitation extremes change in a
warming climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L17707.
Smith, T. M.,R.W.Reynolds, T. C. Peterson, and J.
Lawrimore, 2008: Improvements to NOAA’s
historicalmerged land–ocean surface temperature
analysis (1880–2006). J. Climate, 21, 2283-2296.
Simmons, A. J., K. M. Willett, P. D. Jones, W. Thorne,
and Dee, 2010: Low-frequency variations in surface
atmospheric humidity,temperature, and precipitation:
Inferences from reanalyses and monthly gridded
observational data sets, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos.,
115, D01110.
Su, S.-H., H.-C. Kuo, L.-H. Hsu, and Y.-T. Yang , 2012:
Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Typhoon
Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan,
90, 721-736.
Sun, Y., S. Solomon, A. G. Dai, and R. W. Portmann, 2007:
How often will it rain? J. Clim., 20, 4801-4818.
Trenberth, K. E., 1998: Atmospheric moisture residence
times and cycling:Implications for rainfall rates
with climate change, Clim. Change, 39 , 667-694.
Trenberth, K. E., 1999: Conceptual framework for changes
of extremes of the hydrological cycle with climate
change, Clim. Change, 42 , 327-339.
Trenberth, K. E., A. Dai, R. M. Rasmussen, and D. B.
Parsons, 2003: The changing character of
precipitation, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 84,
1205-1217.
Vecchi, G. A., B. J. Soden, A. T. Wittenberg, I. M. Held,
A. Leetmaa, and M. J. Harrison, 2006: Weakening of
tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to
anthropogenic forcing. Nature., 441, 73-76.
Vecchi, G. A., and B. J. Soden, 2007: Global warming and
the weakening of the tropical circulation. J. Clim.,
20, 4316-4340.
Wentz, F. J., L. Ricciardulli, K. Hilburn, and C. Mears,
2007: How much more rain will global warming bring?
Science, 317, 233-235.
Willett, K. M., et al., 2013: HadISDH: an updateable land
surface specific humidity product for climate
monitoring, Clim. Past , 9, 657-677.
Zhang, S., F. W. Zwiers, G. C. Hegerl, F. H. Lambert,N.
P. Gillett, S. Solomon, P. A. Stott, and T. Nozawa,
2007: Detection of human Influence on twentieth-
century precipitation trends. Nature, 448, 461-465.
Zhou, Y. P., K. M. Xu, Y. C. Sud, and A. K. Betts, 2011:
Recent trends of the tropical hydrological cycle
inferred from Global Precipitation Climatology
Project and International Satellite Cloud
Climatology Project data. J. Geophys. Res., 116,
D09101.
指導教授 劉紹臣、林沛練(Shaw-Chen Liu Pay-Liam Lin) 審核日期 2017-8-16
推文 facebook   plurk   twitter   funp   google   live   udn   HD   myshare   reddit   netvibes   friend   youpush   delicious   baidu   
網路書籤 Google bookmarks   del.icio.us   hemidemi   myshare   

若有論文相關問題,請聯絡國立中央大學圖書館推廣服務組 TEL:(03)422-7151轉57407,或E-mail聯絡  - 隱私權政策聲明