能源在越南國家經濟扮演的角色：投入產出分析

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陳氏秋紅(TRAN THI THU HUONG) 查詢紙本館藏

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機械工程學系

論文名稱

能源在越南國家經濟扮演的角色：投入產出分析
(The role of the energy sectors in Vietnam’s national economy: an input–output analysis)

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摘要(中)

能源在經濟蓬勃發展的越南扮演相當重要的角色，並成為維持越南人民福祉的一個關鍵因素。本論文研究宗旨在利用投入產出分析，研究五種能源來源(煤炭和焦炭，原油，天然氣，石油產品，電力) 對於越南國家經濟發展的作用。使用2007-2012年期間的資料分析58個部門之中的產業間的聯繫效應，並著重在以下三個議題上：能源供應的投資在個別部門與產業內部連鎖效應的影響、能源供應短缺的影響、以及能源價格上漲對於其他產品的影響。結果顯示：大多數能源部門的向前關聯效應數值大於1，這意味著能源受到經濟波盪的影響十分敏感，且此為國家存在的重要輸入。能源部門的向後關聯效應有很顯著的差異。特別是「石油產品」及「煤炭和焦煤」，擁有相對較強的能力來拉動其他產業，同時「原油」、「天然氣」以及「電力」對於產業效益則相對較弱。這五種能源中，具最高的向前關聯效應的石油產品，擁有支撐其他產業的力量較大，而有最高的向後關聯效應，會有較強的產業拉動力。以能源產業為外生，本研究進一步探討了能源部門對於其他產業的經濟影響，包括生產誘導、供應短缺、以及價格效應。此外，從政策工具的角度說明了結果的潛在用途，並討論了一些政策含義。
關

摘要(英)

The energy sectors has played an important role in the dramatic economic development in Vietnam, and become a critical factor sustaining the well-being of the Vietnamese people. This study aims to investigate the role of the five kinds of energy sector (coal and coke, crude oil, natural gas, petroleum product, electricity) in the national economy of Vietnam by using input-output analysis. Data from the period 2007-2012 was used to analyze the inter-industrial effects in 58 sectors, focusing on three topics: the impact of energy supply investment on individual sectors and the inter-industry linkage effect; the energy supply shortage effect; and the impact of the rise in energy rates on prices of other products. The results reveal that: most of energy sectors have forward linkage effect values greater than one, this could imply that the energy sectors are sensitive changes by economic fluctuations and it is a vital input to national existence. The backward linkage effects of the energy sectors have significant difference. In particular, “petroleum products” and “coal and coke” have a relatively strong capacity for pulling other industries, meanwhile “crude oil”, “natural gas” and “electricity” have a relatively weak capacity for pulling in other industries. Among the five kinds of energy sectors, the petroleum product sector with a highest forward linkage effect has more strength to support the other industries, and that with highest backward linkage effect has a relatively strong capacity for pulling in other industries. Taking the energy industry as exogenous, this study further explores its economic effects on other sectors, including production-inducing, supply-shortage, and price effects. Moreover, potential uses of the results are illustrated from the perspective of policy instruments and some policy implications are discussed.

關鍵字(中)

★ 能源部門
★ 投入產出分析
★ 越南

關鍵字(英)

★ energy sector
★ input-output analysis
★ Vietnam

論文目次

TABLE OF CONTENS
摘要 I
ABSTRACT II
ACKNOWLEDGMENT III
TABLE OF CONTENS IV
LIST OF FIGURES V
LIST OF TABLES VI
CHAPTER I 1
INTRODUCTION 1
CHAPTER II 8
LITERATURE REVIEW 8
CHAPTER III 14
METHODOLOGY AND DATA 14
3.1 General framework of the I–O analysis 15
3.2 Demand-driven model 15
3.3 Inter-industry linkage effect analysis 16
3.4 Supply-driven model 17
3.5 Leontief price model 18
3.6 Database 19
CHAPTER IV 25
THE RESULTS AND POTENTIAL USES OF THE RESULTS 25
4.1 Inter-industry linkage effect 25
4.2 Production-including effect 33
4.3 The sectoral price impacts 39
4.4 The energy supply shortage effects 45
4.5 Potential uses of the results and policy implications 53
CHAPTER V 55
CONCLUSION 55
REFERENCES 58

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指導教授

蕭述三林師模(Shu-San Hsiau Shih-Mo Lin)

審核日期

2019-7-24

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