分析師多年期預測與其預測能力之探討

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姓名

曾宜琳(I-Lin Tseng) 查詢紙本館藏

畢業系所

企業管理學系

論文名稱

分析師多年期預測與其預測能力之探討
(Discussion on Analysts’ Long-term Forecasts and Forecasts Ability)

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摘要(中)

分析師發佈多年期預測與其預測準確度有關，本研究欲探討發佈多年期預測報告之分析師，是否因為其能力較高，或想透過多年期預測傳遞額外訊息，進而使其短期盈餘預測(FY1)預測準確度較高，並進一步研究市場與投資人是否察覺發佈多年期盈餘預測之分析師能力較沒發佈者強，而影響市場長短期累積異常報酬。本研究期長為2008至2017年，透過分析師預測誤差、能力分數以及工作年數三種衡量分析師能力之變數進行檢測後，本研究實證結果發現，發佈多年期盈餘預測之分析師，其預測誤差、能力分數與工作年數皆具有高度顯著差異。而在影響市場與投資者方面，研究結果顯示，發佈多年期預測之分析師所做的短期盈餘預測報告，在短期累積異常報酬中，不具有顯著影響力，但在長期累積異常報酬中，具有價值攸關，也就是結果如同本研究預期，發佈多年期預測之分析師對股價預測比沒發佈者佳。

摘要(英)

Analysts’ forecast accuracy are related with their long-term forecasts. Our study is to explore whether analysts who issue long-term forecast are more capability or try to convey additional information through the long-term forecasts, so that their forecast accuracy will be better. Then we will go further to examine the market and investors’ awareness of the analysts’ ability who issue long-term forecast whether is stronger than those who are not issue long-term forecast. Our data period is from 2008 to 2017. Through the forecast error, score of the forecast ability and the experience, our study results find that the analysts who issue the long-term earnings forecast are significantly affected in forecast error, forecast ability and experiences. Also our research results find that the forecast issue from analysts who issue long-term forecasts does not significantly affect in the short-windowed accumulated abnormal returns. But in long -windowed accumulated abnormal returns, analysts’ forecast issues are value-relevant with the market change, it means that the results are as expected in our study. Analysts who issue long-term forecasts are better than those who do not.

關鍵字(中)

★ 分析師
★ 多年期盈餘預測
★ 預測準確度
★ 累積異常報酬
★ 價值攸關

關鍵字(英)

★ analyst
★ multi-year earnings forecasts
★ forecast accuracy
★ cumulative abnormal return
★ value-relevant

論文目次

摘要 i
Abstract ii
目錄 iii
表目錄 v
一、緒論 1
1-1研究背景與動機 1
1-2研究目的 2
1-3研究架構 3
二、文獻探討與假說發展 4
2-1分析師之資訊中介角色 4
2-2分析師之盈餘預測 5
2-3分析師之能力 7
2-3-1 預測誤差與能力分數 8
2-3-2 大膽與羊群效應型分析師 8
2-3-3 分析師之工作經驗 9
2-4研究假說 10
三、研究設計 12
3.1資料來源與樣本選取 12
3.2實證模型建立 12
3-2-1 H1 之實證模型 12
3-2-2 H2 之實證模型 14
3-2-3 H3 之實證模型 15
3-3變數之衡量 16
3-3-1 分析師特性：假說一之因變數 16
3-3-2 公司特性：假說一之控制變數 17
四、實證結果 18
4-1敘述性統計與相關係數 18
4-2回歸分析 19
4-2-1 檢定假說 1 19
4-2-2 檢定假說 2 21
4-2-3 檢定假說 3 22
五、研究結論與建議 23
5-1研究結論 23
5-2研究限制 24
5-3研究建議與貢獻 25
參考文獻 26
中文文獻 26
英文文獻 26

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指導教授

黃承祖(Cheng-Tsu Huang)

審核日期

2018-7-27

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