探討分析師對盈餘成份認定與其對資本市場之影響

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姓名

柯權宸(Quan-Chen Ko) 查詢紙本館藏

畢業系所

企業管理學系

論文名稱

探討分析師對盈餘成份認定與其對資本市場之影響

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摘要(中)

本研究主要探討分析師對於盈餘成份的認定是否會反應在分析師預測行為上，藉此了解資本市場的短期累積異常報酬是否會因分析師預測報告中對於盈餘成分資訊而有顯著影響，並再進一步透過資本市場的長期累積異常報酬，解析分析師盈餘預測中恆常性與暫時性成分，何者較具價值攸關。而實證結果發現分析師對於盈餘成份認定的高低差異確實會與預測誤差存在反向顯著關係，而當分析師藉由預測報告傳遞對企業恆常性盈餘看法時，市場短天期的反應會受到分析師報告的發布而有所影響；此外本研究也測得分析師在短期盈餘預測中，恆常性盈餘成分相較於暫時性盈餘成份，
對長期累積異常報酬更具有正向邊際解釋力，藉此我們也可以知悉分析師盈餘預測中恆常性盈餘成份具價值攸關。

摘要(英)

The purpose of this study is to explore whether the analysts′ recognition of earring components will reflect on analysts′ prediction. So as to understand whether short-windowed cumulative abnormal returns will be significantly affected by information from the analysts′ reports. Then we will go further to understand whether the permanent and transitory components of the analyst′s earning forecast reflect on the long-windowed cumulative abnormal returns and which will be more value-relevant. The empirical results show that the differences in analysts′ perceptions of earnings components do affect their forecast behavior. The market′s short-term response will also be affected by analysts when they issue the earning forecast to convey their views on companies′ permanent earnings. In addition, our study also finds that the permanent earning components in the analysts′ short-term earnings forecasts have a positive marginal explanatory on the long-windowed cumulative abnormal returns. And permanent earning components will be more significant than the transitory earning components. We can also know that the analysts’ permanent earnings components have value-relevant with the capital market through the perception of the analyst forecast report.

關鍵字(中)

★ 分析師
★ 預測誤差
★ 盈餘成份
★ 恆常性盈餘
★ 暫時性盈餘

關鍵字(英)

★ Analyst
★ Forecast Error
★ Earnings Components
★ Permanent Earning
★ Transitory earning

論文目次

目錄
摘要 i
Abstract ii
目錄 iii
表目錄 v
圖目錄 vi
一、緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究目的 3
1.3 研究架構 4
二、文獻探討 5
2.1 分析師資訊意涵探討 5
2.2 暫時性盈餘與恆常性盈餘內涵 6
2.3 分析師特性與預測誤差 7
2.4公司特性與預測誤差 8
2.4.1 無形資產 9
2.4.2 廣告費用與研發費用 10
2.5 研究假設 11
三、研究設計 13
3.1 資料來源與選樣方法 13
3.2 實證模型建立 13
3.2.1 假說一實證模型 16
3.2.2 假說二實證模型 17
3.2.3 假說三實證模型 18
3.3 變數衡量 20
3.3.1 分析師特性變數 20
3.3.2 公司特性變數 21
四、實證結果分析 23
4.1 檢定假說一 23
4.1.1 敘述性統計 23
4.1.2 回歸結果 26
4.2 檢定假說二 31
4.3 檢定假說三 32
五、研究結論與建議 35
5.1 研究結果 35
5.2 研究貢獻 36
5.3 研究建議 37
參考文獻 39

參考文獻

參考文獻
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指導教授

黃承祖(Cheng-Tsu Huang)

審核日期

2018-7-30

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