臺灣汽油需求彈性之再檢定分析

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姓名

陳冠廷(Kuan-Ting Chen) 查詢紙本館藏

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產業經濟研究所

論文名稱

臺灣汽油需求彈性之再檢定分析
(Reanalysis of the Gasoline Demand Elasticity in Taiwan)

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摘要(中)

本篇論文從汽油需求價格彈性與所得彈性的角度來分析：在不同的油價趨勢下，汽油需求是否出現結構性的變化並分析其影響因素。
本研究使用加總性資料與個體調查資料進行分析，並延伸討論汽油需求的異質性，主要的發現有：(1)多數的模型支持 2014 年前後的汽油需求出現結構性變化，其與油價漲跌高度相關。(2)在油價下跌時，臺灣短期的汽油需求價格彈性較中期的大，但在油價上升時期並無明顯差異，而地區的加總效果並不明顯。(3) 臺灣的駕駛人在汽油需求的價格與所得彈性在各分位的汽油需求中，大抵呈現負斜率的型態，在油價下跌時則較接近「倒 U 曲線」。(4) 車齡大於 10 年以上的駕駛的汽油需求價格彈性最低，而介於 6 到10 年的駕駛有最高的汽油需求價格彈性，且在油價下跌時期，各車齡組別皆有-0.3 左右的彈性水準。

摘要(英)

This essay uses price elasticity and income elasticity of gasoline demand to analyze wither there were a structural changing in gasoline demand during gasoline price changed hugely or not and what were the influencers. We use the aggregated data and individual-investment data to discuss it and do more research on the heterogeneity, and the main findings are listed below: (1)Most of our models support that there were surely a structural changing in gasoline demand before and after 2014, that highly correlated with the changing of gasoline price. (2)When the gasoline price went down, the price elasticity of gasoline demand in the short-run was smaller than the middle-run in Taiwan but that were not the same story when the gasoline price raised up, and the aggregated effect on Region were not strong enough. (3)The Shape of each demand’s quantiles of the price elasticity and income elasticity of gasoline roughly displayed a negative slope line and only when gasoline price went down, there were much closer the “Inverted U Shape” (4)The drivers whose car’s age was above 10 years had the lowest price elasticity of gasoline demand; the drivers whose car’s age was between 6 to 10 years had the highest price elasticity of gasoline demand, and each group had about -0.3 levels of the price elasticity of gasoline demand when the gasoline price went down.

關鍵字(中)

★ 汽油需求
★ 價格彈性
★ 所得彈性
★ 鄒檢定

關鍵字(英)

★ gasoline demand
★ price elasticity
★ income elasticity
★ Chow test

論文目次

表目錄 ii
圖目錄 iii
第１章緒論 1
第１節研究動機與目的 1
第２節研究方法 5
第３節研究架構 5
第２章文獻回顧 6
第１節時間序列方法文獻 6
第２節消費者行為文獻 9
第３章研究方法 14
第１節加總性資料分析模型 14
第２節個體調查資料分析模型 16
第４章資料來源、處理與敘述統計 19
第１節加總性資料 19
第２節個體調查資料 27
第５章實證結果 36
第１節加總性資料分析結果 36
第２節個體調查資料分析結果 41
第６章結論 52
第１節結論 52
第２節研究限制與建議 54
參考文獻 55

參考文獻

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指導教授

劉錦龍(Jin-Long Liu)

審核日期

2018-6-21

推文