經濟指標與社群媒體情感之關聯性分析

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黃品瑄(Pin-Hsuan Huang) 查詢紙本館藏

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企業管理學系

論文名稱

經濟指標與社群媒體情感之關聯性分析
(The Relationship between Sentiments of Social Media and Economic Indicators)

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摘要(中)

國民幸福指數(GNH)自從在 1972 年被不丹國王提出並且量化，作為不丹佛教價值的經濟衡量指標後，許多學者開始討論此指數的正確性與代表性，也提出了許多計算幸福指數的方法與公式。GNH 的主要核心價值在於他考慮不止國家經濟發展及財富，更加上了人民的精神狀況、健康狀況及國家文化包容性等，是比傳統經濟指標更全面的衡量方式，也因此，許多國家也開始將幸福指數納入施政績效的考量指標。
台灣在 2013 年馬英九政府決定將幸福指數納入施政考量的其中一個指標。而自 2013 年起到 2018 年，台灣的幸福分數不論是主計處報告還是聯合國發佈的幸福指數都是在持續上升的狀況，甚至分數為全亞洲最高。然而，儘管幸福指數為收集人民資料後集結合成，並沒有人將此分數與台灣社群媒體上的情感分數做比較，以此去證明幸福指數的可靠性。
因此本研究收集台灣 PTT 八卦版 2015 年至 2017 年共 3600 筆文章，利用情感分析，去計算出台灣獨有社群媒體的每月情感分數，再將其與同時間幸福指數走勢比較，發現其走勢雖然不完全相同但都是上升的趨勢。再者，本研究也透過迴歸分析發現台灣社群媒體情感分數與經濟指標 GDP 年增率及 GNI 年增率呈現顯著正相關，以進一步窺探影響台灣輿論的指標為何。未來研究可以以更多的資料收集來證實，台灣學者便可以將論壇情感的走向作為預測經濟指標之成長率之領先指標。

摘要(英)

Gross National Happiness (GNH) has been a popular issue since King of Bhutan, King Jigme Singye Wangchuck declared in 1972, ‘Gross National Happiness is more important than Gross Domestic Product.’ Since then, GNH is discussed by multiple researchers. Their researches are to determine its accuracy and the representative. Many Countries have announced taking this indicator to be one of the national performance review indexes.
In year 2013, Taiwan has considered GNH as one of the performance review indexes. Among 2013 to 2018, Taiwan’s Happiness scores have been rising. Taiwan is now the happiest country in Asia. Nonetheless, there’s no research shows that it can actually represent Taiwanese happiness emotion.
In order to testify this issue, we took 3600 articles from one of Taiwan most used social media- Gossiping board of PPT, to identify Taiwanese emotion among 2015 to 2017. We used Sentiment Analysis to calculate the monthly sentiment score of the media. In the end, we found that Taiwanese Sentiment scores among social media are rising as well as GNH scores. Despite they do not match the exact same route, they are going the same direction. Other than that, we used regression analysis to find out which one of GDP growth rate, GNI growth rate, unemployment rate and inflation rate are having positive correlation with social media’s sentiment scores. In the research, we found that GDP growth rate and GNI growth rate are having significantly positive correlation with the sentiment scores.
We can then use our conclusion to determine that social media’s sentiment score can probably be one of the leading indicators of Economic indexes.

關鍵字(中)

★ 情感分析
★ 幸福指數
★ 總體經濟指標
★ 社群媒體研究
★ 關聯分析

關鍵字(英)

★ Sentiment Analysis
★ Gross National Happiness
★ Economic Indicator
★ Social Media

論文目次

中文摘要 I
ABSTRACT II
目錄 III
圖目錄 V
表目錄 VI
第一章緒論 1
1-1 研究背景 1
1-2 研究動機 2
1-3 研究目的 4
1-4 研究架構 5
第二章文獻探討 6
2-1 幸福指數相關指標 6
2-1-1 國民所得及收入與情感 7
2-1-2 失業率與情感 8
2-1-3 通貨膨脹率與情感 9
2-2 情感分析 10
2-2-1 情感分析之相關研究 10
2-2-2 情感分析之應用 13
第三章研究方法 15
3-1 研究設計 15
3-2 研究方法 17
3-2-1 斷詞系統 17
3-2-2 情感分數計算 18
3-3 資料收集 21
3-3-1 網路論壇PTT之八卦版 21
3-3-2 幸福指數相關總體指標 22
3-4 資料整理與分析 23
第四章研究成果 24
4-1 幸褔指數與論壇情感之關係 24
4-2 GDP年增率與論壇情感之關係 27
4-3 GNI年增率與論壇情感之關係 29
4-4 失業率與論壇情感之關係 31
4-5 通貨膨脹與論壇情感之關係 33
第五章結論、未來發展與限制 36
5-1 研究結論 36
5-2 未來發展與限制 37
參考文獻 38

參考文獻

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指導教授

許秉瑜沈國基(Ping-Yu Hsu Gwo-Ji Sheen)

審核日期

2019-6-21

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