台灣東北部隱沒帶地震地動預估式之精進研究

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姓名

楊珮欣(Pei-Xin Yang) 查詢紙本館藏

畢業系所

應用地質研究所

論文名稱

台灣東北部隱沒帶地震地動預估式之精進研究
(Further studies on ground-motion prediction equations for subduction-zone earthquakes in Northeast Taiwan)

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摘要(中)

地動預估式是地震危害度分析中重要的一項，由於地動預估式的標準差大小對於地震危害度分析結果有直接的影響；使用過大的標準差會導致過估地震危害度。此外，隱沒帶地震與一般淺部地殼地震的震源特性及衰減特性都不同，在分析地震危害時必須加以考量。隱沒帶地震又可以分為板塊界面型地震以及板塊內部型地震，兩者之衰減特性以及反應譜型亦有所不同，有必要分別做回歸，以得到更有代表性的反應譜及合理而較小的標準差。
相較於過去Lin and Lee (2008)研究以1992至2000年間之地震資料建立東北部隱沒帶地動預估式，本研究以1991年到2016年6月，年限共25年之中央氣象局自由場強地動觀測網計畫(TSMIP)以及台灣山區地震觀測網(MTN)蒐集之強震資料，篩選出隱沒帶界面型及內部型地震，使用混合效應模型且以最大概似法做回歸分析，並以連續型Vs30做為場址參數取代過去堅硬地盤、軟弱地盤之簡易分類，分別建立能代表兩型震源的尖峰地動加速度地動預估式，以及6個振動週期之反應譜加速度地動預估式(0.01秒、0.03秒、0.1秒、0.3秒、1秒、3秒)，期能區分這兩種類型地震之尖峰地動加速度及反應譜的差異，並降低地動預估式之標準差。
成果顯示，將兩類型地震分開建立回歸式後，所得之標準差比前人之研究成果低，下降之幅度介於0.0019~0.2019間，且反應譜形狀亦看得出差異。界面型地震長週期震波含量豐富，反應譜平台較寬；內部型地震短週期震波含量豐富，反應譜平台較窄。

摘要(英)

A ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) plays a crucial role in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), and the standard deviation (sigma) of GMPE influences the outcome hazard level directly. The larger the sigma, the greater the hazard. For the purpose of effectiveness and reducing the sigma, we must develop different GMPEs for crustal sources and subduction-zone sources, respectively. Furthermore, subduction zone earthquakes involves interface earthquakes and intraslab earthquakes, we must consider also developing different GMPEs for the two different subduction-zone earthquakes, since the interface earthquakes may have different characteristics of attenuation and different shapes of response spectrum with the intraslab earthquakes.
In this study, we establish separate ground-motion relationships for interface earthquakes and intraslab earthquakes by using the earthquake data from Taiwan Strong-Motion Instrumentation Program (TSMIP) and Taiwan Mountain Seismic Network (MTN) with carefully baseline corrected and noise filtered. We test the effectiveness of different terms in a GMPE by stepwise regression in R, and the coefficients of the equation are determined using maximum likelihood estimattion and nonlinear mixed-effects model. The results show that the interface earthquakes and intraslab earthquakes do exhibit different characteristics of attenuation and different shapes of response spectrum; interface earthquakes contain more long-period motions and have a wider response spectrum, while intraslab earthquakes are rich in the high-frequency waves and have the narrower response spectrum shape, and the sigmas of the GMPEs are lower than that in the previous study.

關鍵字(中)

★ 隱沒帶
★ 地動預估式

關鍵字(英)

★ subduction-zone
★ ground-motion prediction equation

論文目次

中文摘要 I
英文摘要 II
誌謝 III
目錄 V
圖目錄 VIII
表目錄 XII
第一章緒論 1
1.1 研究動機與目的 1
1.2 文獻回顧 3
1.2.1 國外隱沒帶地動預估式及反應譜相關研究 3
1.2.2 台灣隱沒帶地動預估式及反應譜相關研究 5
第二章研究區域背景概述 12
2.1 台灣地體構造簡介 12
2.2 台灣東北部隱沒帶構造 14
2.3 隱沒帶地震介紹 18
第三章資料蒐集與處理 21
3.1 地震資料來源 21
3.2 地震及測站相關資訊蒐集 23
3.2.1 規模參數 23
3.2.2 距離參數 25
3.2.3 測站場址參數 26
3.2.4 震源機制參數 29
3.2.5 地動參數 30
3.3 地震歷時記錄之資料處理 30
3.3.1 基線校正 30
3.3.2 高通濾波 34
3.4 反應譜加速度之計算 36
第四章研究方法 39
4.1 研究流程 39
4.2 隱沒帶地震之分類流程 41
4.3 強震資料選取 45
4.4 地動預估模型之建立 53
4.4.1 規模項 54
4.4.2 幾何擴散項 56
4.4.3 深度項 64
4.4.4 場址項 65
4.4.5 隱沒帶震源類型項 65
4.4.6 震源機制項 66
4.4.7 非彈性衰減項 66
4.5 地動預估式回歸分析方法 70
4.5.1 界面型地震與內部型地震地動衰減模型概述 70
4.5.2 最大概似法 71
4.5.3 混合效應模型 72
4.5.4 統計分析軟體-R 74
第五章研究成果 75
5.1 地動預估式回歸成果 75
5.2 研究成果之界面型地震與內部型地震反應譜型差異 98
第六章討論 101
6.1 本研究與其他研究成果之總標準差及資料適配情形比較 101
6.1.1 地動預估式之總標準差比較 101
6.1.2 本研究與其他研究之地動預估式與地震資料適配比較 103
6.2 與先前研究之反應譜譜型比較 118
6.3不同場址地盤下之反應譜型差異 120
6.4 35-50公里深之隱沒帶地震 122
6.5 距離大於300公里之內部型地震殘差 126
第七章結論與建議 128
7.1 結論 128
7.2 建議 129
參考文獻 130
附錄A 本研究選用之台灣區域隱沒帶地震參數 A-1
附錄B 本研究選用之國外隱沒帶地震分布及參數 B-1
附錄C 本研究整理之各測站不同來源Vs30參數 C-1
附錄D PGA及各週期地動預估式殘差值長條統計圖 D-1
附錄E 35-50公里深之候選內部型地震資料與PGA_intraslab地動預估式適配圖 E-1

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指導教授

李錫堤(Chyi-Tyi Lee)

審核日期

2019-7-25

推文