博碩士論文 107428005 詳細資訊




以作者查詢圖書館館藏 以作者查詢臺灣博碩士 以作者查詢全國書目 勘誤回報 、線上人數:77 、訪客IP:3.139.105.38
姓名 莊永鑫(Yong-Xin Jhuang)  查詢紙本館藏   畢業系所 財務金融學系
論文名稱 盈餘宣告、交易量與後續股價報酬之研究
檔案 [Endnote RIS 格式]    [Bibtex 格式]    [相關文章]   [文章引用]   [完整記錄]   [館藏目錄]   [檢視]  [下載]
  1. 本電子論文使用權限為同意立即開放。
  2. 已達開放權限電子全文僅授權使用者為學術研究之目的,進行個人非營利性質之檢索、閱讀、列印。
  3. 請遵守中華民國著作權法之相關規定,切勿任意重製、散佈、改作、轉貼、播送,以免觸法。

摘要(中) 過去有許多文獻指出盈餘宣告後其盈餘的結果會影響到後續股票的報酬,此現象稱為盈餘宣告後股價持續反應(Post Earning Announcement Drift, PEAD)。而異常交易量也可以為後續報酬作出解釋,此現象稱為高額交易量溢酬(High Volume Return Premium, HVRP)。我們認為PEAD與HVRP相互影響,正如我們的結果所示,在考慮到宣告日附近的異常交易量後,發現盈餘驚喜的方向更能夠解釋股價報酬率的表現。我們更進一步的將我們的樣本分成兩個部分,一個是總宣告樣本,另一個是分析師估計樣本,我們發現不論採取哪一個樣本,我們都可以發現PEAD與HVRP皆會相互影響。
摘要(英) In the past, many literatures pointed out that the earnings result will affect the subsequent stock returns. This phenomenon is called Post Earning Announcement Drift (PEAD). The abnormal trading volume can also explain the subsequent stock returns. This phenomenon is called High Volume Return Premium (HVRP). We argue that PEAD and HVRP influence each other. As our results show, after considering the abnormal trading volume around the earning announcement date, we find that earning surprise can better explain the performance of stock returns. We further divide our sample into two parts, one is the general announcement sample, and the other is the analyst estimate sample. We found that no matter which sample we take, we find that PEAD and HVRP affect each other.
關鍵字(中) ★ 盈餘宣告
★ 交易量
★ 分析師
關鍵字(英) ★ Earning announce
★ Trading volume
★ Analyst
論文目次 中文摘要 I
ABSTRACT II
圖目錄 V
表目錄 VI
一、緒論 1
1-1  背景與動機 1
1-2  研究問題與目的 2
二、文獻回顧 3
2-1  盈餘宣告的資訊內涵 3
2-2  交易量的資訊內涵 6
三、樣本資料及研究方法 9
3-1  樣本資料 9
3-2  盈餘宣告事件 9
3-3  盈餘驚喜 10
3-4  異常交易周轉率 14
3-5  超額報酬率 17
四、實證結果 18
4-1  盈餘宣告後股價持續反應 18
4-2  高額交易量溢酬 22
4-3  PEAD與HVRP交乘項 26
4-4  迴歸分析 32
五、結論 43
參考文獻 46
參考文獻 [1] X. Zhou and V. Sah, "Year-End Trading Motives of REIT Investors: Further Evidence Based on Price and Trading Volume Relationship," Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management, vol. 16, no. 2, pp. 141-151, 2010.
[2] G. Halbritter and G. Dorfleitner, "The wages of social responsibility—where are they? A critical review of ESG investing," Review of Financial Economics, vol. 26, pp. 25-35, 2015.
[3] J. A. Garfinkel and J. Sokobin, "Volume, opinion divergence, and returns: A study of post–earnings announcement drift," Journal of Accounting Research, vol. 44, no. 1, pp. 85-112, 2006.
[4] T. Chordia and B. Swaminathan, "Trading volume and cross‐autocorrelations in stock returns," The Journal of Finance, vol. 55, no. 2, pp. 913-935, 2000.
[5] H. A. Latane and C. P. Jones, "Standardized unexpected earnings--a progress report," The Journal of Finance, vol. 32, no. 5, pp. 1457-1465, 1977.
[6] E. M. Miller, "Risk, uncertainty, and divergence of opinion," The Journal of finance, vol. 32, no. 4, pp. 1151-1168, 1977.
[7] J. M. Karpoff, "The relation between price changes and trading volume: A survey," Journal of Financial and quantitative Analysis, vol. 22, no. 1, pp. 109-126, 1987.
[8] C. Wang and S. Chin, "Profitability of return and volume-based investment strategies in China′s stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, vol. 12, no. 5, pp. 541-564, 2004.
[9] M. S. Seasholes and G. Wu, "Predictable behavior, profits, and attention," Journal of Empirical Finance, vol. 14, no. 5, pp. 590-610, 2007.
[10] V. L. Bernard and J. K. Thomas, "Post-earnings-announcement drift: delayed price response or risk premium?," Journal of Accounting research, vol. 27, pp. 1-36, 1989.
[11] J. Mayshar, "On divergence of opinion and imperfections in capital markets," The American Economic Review, vol. 73, no. 1, pp. 114-128, 1983.
[12] E. Bartov, S. Radhakrishnan, and I. Krinsky, "Investor sophistication and patterns in stock returns after earnings announcements," The Accounting Review, vol. 75, no. 1, pp. 43-63, 2000.
[13] R. Bhushan, "An informational efficiency perspective on the post-earnings announcement drift," Journal of Accounting and Economics, vol. 18, no. 1, pp. 45-65, 1994.
[14] L. S. Bamber, "The information content of annual earnings releases: A trading volume approach," Journal of Accounting Research, pp. 40-56, 1986.
[15] W. H. Beaver, "The information content of annual earnings announcements," Journal of accounting research, pp. 67-92, 1968.
[16] R. Kaniel, S. Liu, G. Saar, and S. Titman, "Individual investor trading and return patterns around earnings announcements," The Journal of Finance, vol. 67, no. 2, pp. 639-680, 2012.
[17] T. M. Galloway and J. M. Miller, "Index futures trading and stock return volatility: Evidence from the introduction of mid cap 400 index futures," Financial Review, vol. 32, no. 4, pp. 845-866, 1997.
[18] S. Gervais, R. Kaniel, and D. H. Mingelgrin, "The high‐volume return premium," The Journal of Finance, vol. 56, no. 3, pp. 877-919, 2001.
[19] T. Tang, L. Zou, and J. Li, "The high-volume return premium: Evidence from the australian equity market," Journal of Accounting and Finance, vol. 13, no. 5, pp. 74-93, 2013.
[20] P. Wang, Y. Wen, and H. Singh, "The high-volume return premium: Does it exist in the Chinese stock market?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, vol. 46, pp. 323-336, 2017.
[21] A. Lerman, J. Livnat, and R. R. Mendenhall, "The high-volume return premium and post-earnings announcement drift," Available at SSRN 1122463, 2008.
[22] N. Gordon and Q. Wu, "The high-volume return premium and changes in investor recognition," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, vol. 51, pp. 121-136, 2018.
[23] J. T. Doyle, R. J. Lundholm, and M. T. Soliman, "The extreme future stock returns following I/B/E/S earnings surprises," Journal of Accounting Research, vol. 44, no. 5, pp. 849-887, 2006.
[24] V. L. Bernard and J. K. Thomas, "Evidence that stock prices do not fully reflect the implications of current earnings for future earnings," Journal of accounting and economics, vol. 13, no. 4, pp. 305-340, 1990.
[25] J. Cao, S. Titman, X. Zhan, and W. E. Zhang, "ESG Preference, Institutional Trading, and Stock Return Patterns," Available at SSRN 3353623, 2020.
[26] T. Verheyden, R. G. Eccles, and A. Feiner, "ESG for all? The impact of ESG screening on return, risk, and diversification," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, vol. 28, no. 2, pp. 47-55, 2016.
[27] B. G. Malkiel and E. F. Fama, "Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work," The journal of Finance, vol. 25, no. 2, pp. 383-417, 1970.
[28] G. Foster, C. Olsen, and T. Shevlin, "Earnings releases, anomalies, and the behavior of security returns," Accounting Review, pp. 574-603, 1984.
[29] T. Chordia and L. Shivakumar, "Earnings and price momentum," Journal of financial economics, vol. 80, no. 3, pp. 627-656, 2006.
[30] B. M. Barber, Y.-T. Lee, Y.-J. Liu, and T. Odean, "Do individual day traders make money? Evidence from Taiwan," University of California, Berkeley, working paper, 2004.
[31] H. R. Varian, "Divergence of opinion in complete markets: A note," The Journal of Finance, vol. 40, no. 1, pp. 309-317, 1985.
[32] L. S. Bamber and Y. S. Cheon, "Differential price and volume reactions to accounting earnings announcements," Accounting Review, pp. 417-441, 1995.
[33] K. Francis, "Charles Darwin and the origin of species," 2007.
[34] R. Ball and P. R. Brown, "Ball and Brown (1968): A retrospective," The Accounting Review, vol. 89, no. 1, pp. 1-26, 2014.
[35] H. Hong, T. Lim, and J. C. Stein, "Bad news travels slowly: Size, analyst coverage, and the profitability of momentum strategies," The Journal of Finance, vol. 55, no. 1, pp. 265-295, 2000.
[36] 劉映興, 何亮君, and 陳家彬, "混合分配假說, 風險, 交易量, 股票報酬與波動不對稱之研究-以台灣股市爲例," 明道學術論壇, vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 81-90, 2007.
[37] 許哲源, "從盈餘宣告觀察交易量之資訊內涵," 2003.
[38] 黃瓊慧, 廖秀梅, and 廖益興, "股價是否充分反應當期盈餘對未來盈餘之意涵-以台灣上市公司之季盈餘序列遵循 AR (1) 模式為例," 當代會計, vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 25-56, 2004.
[39] 王健聰 and 陳良姝, "股利宣告對於盈餘宣告資訊強度與規模效應影響之研究," 臺灣企業績效學刊, vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 193-210, 2009.
[40] 楊鴻傑, "交易量週轉率之市場異常現象; The Turnover Anomaly," 國立中央大學, 2010.
[41] 馬維平, "交易量基準值與動量策略之研究," 2001.
[42] 蔡佳君, 賴靜惠, and 陳育成, "分析師盈餘預測誤差與盈餘宣告時點對盈餘管理之影響," 文大商管學報, vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 85-105, 2005
指導教授 徐正義(Cheng‑Yi Shiu) 審核日期 2020-6-24
推文 facebook   plurk   twitter   funp   google   live   udn   HD   myshare   reddit   netvibes   friend   youpush   delicious   baidu   
網路書籤 Google bookmarks   del.icio.us   hemidemi   myshare   

若有論文相關問題,請聯絡國立中央大學圖書館推廣服務組 TEL:(03)422-7151轉57407,或E-mail聯絡  - 隱私權政策聲明