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姓名	林桓聖(Huan-Sheng Lin)  查詢紙本館藏	畢業系所	土木工程學系
論文名稱	水文地質條件不確定性下的地下水時空變化模擬 (Simulation of underground spatiotemporal changes under uncertainty of hydrogeological conditions)
相關論文	★ 結合資料探勘方法建立屏東平原含水層水文地質參數推估模式 ★ 探討颱風特性於農損及坡地災害遙測影像辨識之研究 ★ 不同時空降雨型態對於地下水補注量之探討—以屏東平原為例 ★ 以訊號分析資料探勘方法探討PM2.5污染傳播時空特徵及相應之天氣條件 ★ 運用訊號分析方法於地下水資源旱災韌性與風險評估 ★ 探討都市熱島效應對臺北地區午後雷雨及地下水之影響 ★ 建立台灣北部交通與氣象因子對於空氣污染影響之機器學習模型 ★ 以深度學習方法建立地下水位預警之風險評估模型 ★ 以機器學習預測海溫及熱帶氣旋特徵對於珊瑚白化之影響 – 以澎湖南方四島為例 ★ 探討臺灣地震活動特徵與環境變數相關性分析 ★ 以機器學習方法建立巨觀尺度降雨氣候水資源推估模式
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摘要(中)	地下水是許多地區的重要淡水資源，也是乾旱期間重要的備用水源。因此，了解地下水資源的特性至關重要，因此可以透過模擬出正確的水文地質模型來探索。不過若想建置完善的水文地質模型，就必須掌握正確的地質條件和水文地質參數，才能建立有效的地下水流數值模擬。但是，地質條件總是存在一些不確定性，並且會對於地下水時空變化產生影響。 因此，本研究使用MODFLOW地下水數值模式來建置模型，模型建置可分為ideal case(假設案例)與real case(實際案例)，假設案例是透過地下水數值模擬與砂箱實驗來進行實驗對照組之比較，因此透過敏感度分析來探討水力傳導係數細部變化之影響，藉此改變不透水層之設置來觀察不同含水層的地下水位之變化；實際案例是模擬嘉義頭橋民雄工業區而模擬時間分為一年及五年，且可從第一含水層模擬結果中與實際地下水資料比較R2均能達到0.9，從研究結果表明在不同的水文地質參數、地質條件和其他條件之下，地下水的變化也會有所不同。 另外，還透過經驗正交函數(EOF)來探討假設案例和實際案例的時空間特徵，經由本研究可發現在有不透水層與無不透水層兩者的差異，以及當一個區域為不透水層的分佈時，對於此區域所造成的地下水位變動趨勢和流動特徵的影響。此外，從研究結果中顯示無論是在假設案例或實際案例上，都能藉由EOF的方法來有效區分出不同的水文地質參數分布情形。因此，如果未來有相關單位想要進行水資源管理調配時，可針對第一含水層來進行探討比較，如果發現同個區域卻有不同的地下水位特徵時，那麼就有很大的可能是受到不透水層分佈的影響。
摘要(英)	Groundwater is a reliable freshwater resource in many areas, and it is also an important source of backup water during the drought. Therefore, understanding the characteristics of groundwater resources is crucial and can be explored by building correct hydrogeological models for simulation. To build a perfect hydrogeological model, it is necessary to grasp the correct geological conditions and hydrogeological parameters to establish an effective numerical simulation of groundwater flow. However, geological conditions always contain some uncertainties, which may cause a certain impact on the spatiotemporal changes of groundwater. Therefore, this study uses the groundwater flow numerical model, MODFLOW, to build the groundwater simulation model, divided into the ideal case and real case, the ideal case is to compare the experimental control group through groundwater numerical simulation and sandbox experiment, In addition, through sensitivity analysis to explore the impact of the hydraulic derivation of the detailed changes, change the setting of aquiclude to observe the changes of groundwater level in different aquifers, the real case simulates the Minxiong Industrial zone in Touqiao, Chiayi, and the simulation time is divided into one year and five years, the simulation results show the first aquifer R2 can all reach 0.9 compare with the groundwater real observation data, the results show that under different hydrological parameters, geology, and other conditions, groundwater will have different patterns of variation. In addition, the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) is used to explore the temporal and spatial characteristics of ideal cases and real cases, through this research, it can be found that there are differences between an unconfined aquifer and a confined aquifer, and when this area is a confined aquifer, the influence on the trend and flow characteristics of the groundwater level caused by this area. Besides, the research results show that whether it is an ideal case or a real case, the EOF method can be used to effectively distinguish different hydrogeological parameter distribution situations. Therefore, if relevant units want to conduct water resources management and deployment in the future, they can discuss and compare the first aquifer, if it is found that the same area has different groundwater level characteristics, it is likely to be affected by the confined aquifer.
關鍵字(中)	★ 地下水模擬 ★ MODFLOW ★ 不確定性 ★ 經驗正交函數 ★ 水文地質	關鍵字(英)	★ Groundwater simulation ★ MODFLOW ★ Uncertainty ★ EOF ★ Hydrogeology
論文目次	摘要 i Abstract ii 誌謝 iv 目錄 v 表目錄 vii 圖目錄 viii 第一章　緒論 1 1-1　研究背景與動機 1 1-2　研究目的 3 1-3　研究架構 3 第二章　文獻回顧 6 2-1　地下水文系統不確定性 6 2-2　水文地質對地質模型之影響 8 2-3　嘉義梅山斷層的地形與地質之相關研究回顧 12 2-4　MODFLOW國內外應用研究之相關文獻 17 第三章　研究方法 25 3-1　研究架構 25 3-2　研究區域概述 29 3-3　MODFLOW 40 3-4　資料收集與描述 43 3-5　經驗正交函數(EOF) 65 第四章　結果與討論 69 4-1　假設案例與砂箱實驗 69 4-2　敏感度分析 83 4-3　實際案例地下水數值模擬與實際地下水位比較 89 4-4　經驗正交函數(EOF)結果分析 111 第五章　結論與建議 125 5-1　結論 125 5-2　建議 125 5-3　貢獻 126 參考文獻 127 評審意見回覆表 137
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指導教授	林遠見(Yuan-Chien Lin)	審核日期	2021-7-27
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