整合性多目標地震風險評估系統之建立

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許文科(Wenko Hsu) 查詢紙本館藏

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論文名稱

整合性多目標地震風險評估系統之建立
(Integrated Multi-Objective Seismic Hazard Assessment System)

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摘要(中)

如何藉由有效的地震風險管理，以最小之成本，將地震危害可能造成之衝擊降至最低，為處於地震發生頻繁的環太平洋地震帶的我們所需重視之課題。本文研究之目的即在期藉由風險管理之觀念，考量地震風險之特性及來源，整合相關之地震危害度分析、建築物地震損害分析、保險財務分析模式及各種地震危害資料庫，以物件導向程式設計理念，開發建立一具有親和力使用者介面之整合性多目標地震風險評估系統，以依不同領域使用者之使用需求，提供各種必要之地震風險資訊，供選取適當地震風險管理策略之用。本文所建構之系統將可提供包括政府部門、工程顧問公司、一般建物所有人、產物保險公司及銀行等不同領域使用者必要之地震風險資訊，協助其進行有效之地震風險管理。

摘要(英)

An immediate result of the system is advance technology in seismic risk management is now available to government agencies, structural engineer, consulting engineer, the insurance/investment banking industries, and general building owners.

關鍵字(中)

★ 地震危害度分析
★ 或然率反應譜
★ 建築物地震損害
★ 地震風險評估
★ 損失超越或然率
★ 地震保險

關鍵字(英)

★ Seismic Hazard Analysis
★ Probabilistic Response Spectrum
★ Damage Assessment
★ Seismic Risk Assessment
★ Loss Exceeding Probability
★ Earthquake Insurance

論文目次

摘要II

圖目錄4

表目錄7

第一章緒論9

1.1. 研究背景及動機9

1.2. 地震風險管理12

1.3. 研究內容14

第二章地震危害分析15

2.1 地震危害度分析模式15

2.1.1. 前言15

2.1.2. 震源模型及震源分區18

2.1.3. 震源特性參數20

2.1.4. 地震能量釋放模式23

2.1.5. 地表運動衰減模式24

2.1.6. 地震發生預測模式26

2.1.7. 地震危害度分析流程31

2.2 或然率反應譜之建立35

2.2.1. 分析模式35

2.2.2. 動力放大因子36

2.2.3. 台灣地區動力放大因子資料庫之建立39

2.3 反應譜相合人工地震44

2.3.1. 分析流程44

2.3.2. 人工地震歷時之模擬45

2.3.3. 地震歷時之修正48

2.4 實例分析與討論48

2.4.1. 地震危害度分析49

2.4.2. 或然率反應譜分析58

2.4.3. 人工地震歷時分析59

第三章建築物地震損害評估62

3.1 前言62

3.2 建築物分類64

3.4 能耐譜法簡介67

3.5 地震需求曲線之建立69

3.6 建築物能耐曲線之建立72

3.6.1. 標準建築物能耐曲線72

3.6.2. 我國耐震設計規範之沿革74

3.6.3. 建築物能耐曲線參數之決定76

3.7 建築物地震反應分析83

3.7.1. 地震反應之推估83

3.7.2. 地震反應不確定性之考量88

3.8 建築物地震損害評估90

3.8.1. 建築物地震損害狀態90

3.8.2. 建築物地震損害機率93

3.8.3. 建築物地震損失95

3.8.4. 建築物地震損失修正因子98

第四章地震保險105

4.1 前言105

4.2 國內外地震保險概況108

4.2.1. 日本地震保險概況108

4.2.2. 美國地震保險概況110

4.2.3. 紐西蘭地震保險概況111

4.2.4. 我國地震保險現況112

4.3 地震保險費率之釐定116

4.3.1. 保險費率釐定之基本原則116

4.3.2. 我國現行地震保險費率之探討117

4.3.3. 基於承保能量之保險計價模式122

4.4 地震風險管理方法之評估與選擇128

4.5 我國地震保險面臨之困難131

4.6 對我國地震保險制度未來發展之建議132

4.6.1. 對我國地震保險制度建議132

4.6.2. 其它相關配合工作134

第五章系統建置136

5.1 前言136

5.2 系統程式架構136

5.3 系統資料庫架構137

5.4 系統軟硬體需求139

5.5 系統功能說明139

5.6 系統特色141

5.7 未來系統之發展143

第六章結論與建議144

6.1 結論144

6.2 建議146

參考文獻148

附錄A　我國不同時期耐震設計規範地震力之規定156

?我國建築耐震設計規範之沿革概況156

?民國六十三年之地震力規定156

?民國七十一年之地震力規定157

?民國七十八年之地震力規定159

?民國八十六年之地震力規定159

?民國八十八年之地震力規定162

附錄B 建築物能耐曲線參數168

附錄C ATC-13地震損失估算方法173

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指導教授

蔣偉寧(Wei-Ling Chiang)

審核日期

2000-7-13

推文