博碩士論文 83444003 詳細資訊




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姓名 莊文彬(Wen-Bin Chuang)  查詢紙本館藏   畢業系所 產業經濟研究所
論文名稱 台灣製造業廠商轉業行為
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摘要(中) 本論文旨在利用實証研究的方法,探討且分析台灣製造業裡廠商從事轉業策略所造成的影響。藉由此議題的探討,可以讓我們更加了解台灣製造業的演進,以及充分了解廠商之發展與演進。因此,本論文以廠商的轉業的角度,探討三個有關於市場的演進的議題,以期能夠建立完整的分析架構。
根據本文的分析架構,本論文首先針對產業動態的相關文獻加以回顧。並且針對「台灣製造業的參進與退出」、「參進型態與參進後績效-台灣電子業的實証研究」、「轉出與退出廠商的比較」三個不同的相關議題,提出一些異於以往文獻的觀點與分析。此外,有關上述以台灣製造業為研究對象的探討,在台灣的實証研究裡尚不多見。
在「台灣製造業的參進與退出」的研究裡,本論文利用75年、80年以及85年的工商普查資料,來探討台灣製造業廠商參進與退出的相關性與對稱性以及其決定因素。此外,由於台灣製造業轉業的情形相當普遍,本論文亦討論轉業對於廠商參進與退出的影響。實証估計的結果顯示:影響參進與退出的因素並未出現對稱性,參進與退出的相關性則可由填補效果和取代效果來解釋,且該二效果同時存在。至於參進與退出的影響因素方面,轉業率則為參進率與退出率的主要影響因素之一。
在「參進型態與參進後績效-台灣電子業的實証研究」的研究裡,本論文同樣也利用民國75年、80年以及85年的工商普查資料,探討並比較影響台灣電子業新參進與轉業參進廠商存活機率與成長的因素。實証結果顯示新參進與轉業參進的不同參進型態廠商,在參進後的存活率與成長率績效表現上,存在顯著的差異。存活機率方面,新參進廠商的存活率顯著低於轉業參進廠商,但存活後的新參進廠商,其成長率卻又顯著的高於轉業參進的存活廠商。此外,不同參進型態之參進後績效的影響因素亦有所不同。
在「轉出與退出-1992年電子業廠商之追蹤分析」裡,本論文結合多元且隨機效果的波比模型(Random Effect and Multinomial Probit Model)與1992年到1999年的工廠校正資料。探討並且比較1992年台灣地區之電子業廠商,在7年的追蹤之下,影響離開原來產業(退出與轉入其他產業)的決定因素。此外,基於廠商的決策會受到前期決策的作用,本文在機率選擇的考慮上亦加入序列相關(Serial Correlation)。實証結果顯示影響廠商退出與轉出的因素並不相同。首先,在廠商特性方面,當廠商的規模愈小,資本勞動比愈高時,愈會增加轉入其他產業的機率。同時委外包工的比例愈高時,則將造成廠商離開原來的機率下降。其次,在產業環境方面,當產業的成長率愈高,最小有效規模愈小時,廠商愈不願意離開原來的產業。但是產業的參進率則是對於退出與轉出產生不同的影響。
關鍵字(中) ★ 加入
★ 退出
★ 轉業
關鍵字(英) ★ switch
★ exit
★ entry
論文目次 目 錄
第一章 緒論
第一節 前言 …………………………………………………………………. 1
第二節 資料來源與研究方法 ………………………………………………. 2
第二章 產業動態的文獻回顧
第一節 前言 ………………………………………………………………… 5
第二節 廠商的成長 ………………………………………………………… 6
第三節 參進與退出 ……………………………………………………….. 8
第四節 參進與退出的相關性 ………………………………………………17
第五節 參進後的績效 ………………………………………………………20
參考文獻 ……………………………………………………………………… 22
第三章 台灣製造業的參進與退出
第一節 前言 …………………………………………………………………30
第二節 參進和退出的關聯性 ………………………………………………32
第三節 資料來源與實証模型 ……………………………………..……….35
第四節 實証結果 ……………………………………………………………40
第五節 結論 …………………………………………………………………45
參考文獻 ……………………………………………………………………… 47
第四章 參進型態與參進後績效
第一節 前言 …………………………………………………………………52
第二節 新參進與轉業參進廠商的基本特性比較 …………………………54
第三節 實証模型與變數說明 ………………………………………………57
第四節 實証結果 ……………………………………………………………62
第五節 結論 …………………………………………………………………67
參考文獻 ……………………………………………………………………… 69
第五章 轉出與退出
第一節 前言 …………………………………………………………………73
第二節 資料來源與相關說明 ………………………………………………76
第三節 實証模型 ……………………………………………………………79
第四節 實証結果 ……………………………………………………………86
第五節 結論 …………………………………………………………………90
參考文獻 ……………………………………………………………………….92
第六章 結論
第一節 本論文的特色 ………………………………………………………96
第二節 本論文的發現 ………………………………………………………96
參考文獻 第二章 的參考文獻
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林惠玲 (1993), 「廠商之退出率與存活時間之計量模型- 台灣電力及電子機械器材製造業的驗証」, 經濟論文叢刊, 21:3, 頁411-439.
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第三章的參考文獻
林惠玲 (1999), 「廠商加入退出與集中度、市場競爭性之關係 – 台灣製造業之驗証」, 國科會專題研究報告
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Dunne, T. and M.J. Robert (1991), Variation in Producer Turnover Across U.S. Manufacturing Industries, in P.A. Geroski and J. Schwalbach, eds, Entry and Market Contestability. Oxford: Basil Blackwell, p. 187-203.
Geroski, P.A. (1991), Market Dynamics and Entry, Oxford: Basil Blackwell.
Geroski P.A. (1995), What do We Know about Entry?, International Journal of Industrial Organization, 13, 421-440.
Gorecki, P.K. (1976), The Determinants of Entry by Domestic and Foreign Enterprises in Canadian Manufacturing Industries: Some Comments and Empirical Results, Review of Economics and Statistics, 58, 485-488.
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Ilmakunnas, P. and J. Topi (1999), Microeconomic and Macroeconomic Influence on Entry and Exit of Firms, Review of Industrial Organization, 15, 283-301
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Kessides, I.N. (1990), Towards a Testable Model of Entry: A Study of the U.S. Manufacturing Industries, Economica, 57, 219-238.
Kessides, I.N. (1991), Entry and Market Contestability: The Evidence from the United States, in P.A. Geroski and J. Schwalbach, eds, Entry and Market Contestability. Oxford: Basil Blackwell, p.23-48.
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Mayer, W.J. and W.F. Chappell (1992), Determinations of Entry and Exit: An Application of the Compounded Bivariate Poisson Distribution to U.S. Industries, 1972-1977, Southern Economic Journal, 58, 770-778.
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Siegfried, J.J. and L.B. Evans (1994), Empirical Studies of Entry and Exit: A Survey of the Evidence, Review of Industrial Organization, 9, 121-155.
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第四章的參考文獻
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第六章的參考文獻
陳忠榮、莊文彬、楊志海 (2002), 「參進與退出的對稱性與相關性-台灣製造業的實証分析」,中央研究院,人文及社會科學集刊, 14:1, 頁33-54.
林惠玲 (1993), 「廠商之退出率與存活時間之計量模型- 台灣電力及電子機械器材製造業的驗証」, 經濟論文叢刊, 21:3, 頁411-439.
賴子珍 (1996), 「台灣電子廠商存活、退出、轉業的多重選擇模型」, 國科會研究報告.
Amirkhalkhaly,S., A.K.Mukhopadhyay, (1993), The Influence of Size and R&D on the Growth of Firms in the U.S. Eastern Economic Journal, 19 , 223-233.
Audretsch, D.B., (1991), New Firm Survival and the Technology Regime. Review of Economics and Statistics, 73, 520-526.
Audretsch, D.B., (1995), Innovation and Industry Evolution. MIT Press, Cambridge.
Audretsch, D.B. and T. Mahmood, (1995), New Firm Survival: New Results Using a Harzard Function. Review of Economics and statistics, 77, 97-103.
Audretsch, D.B., E. Santarelli and M.Vivarelli, (1999), Start-up Size and Industrial Dynamics: Some Evidence from Italian Manufacturing. International Journal of Industrial Organization, 17, 965-983.
Berry, S.T., (1992) Estimation of a Model of Entry in the Airline Industry, Econometrica 60, 889-917.
Bradburd, R. and R.E. Caves, (1982), A Closer Look at the Effect of Market Growth on Industries Profits. Review of Economics and statistics, 64, 635-645.
Chen, J.R. and C.H.Yang, (2000), R&D , Patents and Productivity in Taiwanese Manufacturing firm : An Econopmetric Analysis of Panel Data. Paper presented at Western Economic Association International’s 75th Annual Conference.
Dunne,P., A. and Hughes, (1994), Age, Size, Growth and Survival: UK Companies in the 1980s. Journal of Industrial Economics, 42, 115-140.
Dunne, T. and M.J. Robert (1991), Variation in Producer Turnover Across U.S. Manufacturing Industries, in P.A. Geroski and J. Schwalbach, eds, Entry and Market Contestability. Oxford: Basil Blackwell, p. 187-203.
Dunne, T.,M. J. Roberts and L. Samuelson,(1988), Patterns of Firm Entry and Exit in US Manufacturing Industries. Rand Journal of Economics, 19, 495-515.
Dunne, T., M.J. Roberts and L. Samuelson,(1989), The Growth and Failure of US Manufacturing Plants .Quarterly Journal of Economics ,104, 671-698.
Geroski,P.A.,(1995), What do we know about entry?. International Journal of Industrial Organization, 13, 421-440.
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Griliches,Z.J. and D. Siegei,(1991), Purchased Services, Outsourcing, Computers, and Productivity in Manufacturing, NBER working 3678 .
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Hall,B.,(1987), The Relationship between Firm Size and Firm Growth in the US Manufacturing Sector. Journal of industrial Economics, 36, 583-606.
Hall, B.H. and J.Mairesse,(1995), Exploring the Relationship between R&D and Productivity in French Manufacturing Firms. Journal of Econometrics, 65, 263-293.
Jovanovic,B. (1982), Selection and Evolution of Industry, Econometrica, 50, 649-670
Keane, M.P., (1994), A Computationally Practical Simulation Estimator for Panel Data, Econometrica, 62, 95-116.
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Lambson,V.E.,(1991), Industry Evolution with Sunk Costs and Uncertain Market Conditions, International Journal of Industrial Organization, 9, 171-196
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Mata, J., P. Portugal and P. Guimaraes, (1995), The Survival of New Plants : Start-up Conditions and Post-entry Evolution. International Journal of Industrial organization, 13, 459-482.
Pakes, A. and D. Pollard, (1989), Simulation and the Asymptotic of Optimization Estimators, Econometrica, 57, 1027-1057.
Siegfried, J.J. and L.B. Evans (1994), Empirical Studies of Entry and Exit: A Survey of the Evidence, Review of Industrial Organization, 9, 121-155.
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指導教授 陳忠榮(JONG-RONG CHEN) 審核日期 2002-11-5
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