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姓名 廖啟雯(Chi-Wen Liao)  查詢紙本館藏   畢業系所 地球物理研究所
論文名稱 機率式地震誘發山崩危害度分析–以國姓地區為例
(Probabilistic Hazard Analysis of Earthquake-Induced Landslides – an Example from KouHsing, Taiwan)
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摘要(中) 傳統的 Newmark 位移分析模式是用來計算空間上的山崩機率分布,並未考慮時間因素對於地震誘發山崩機率的影響。本研究的目的是結合Newmark 位移法與機率式地震危害度分析方法,建立一套考慮時間機率的地震誘發山崩危害度分析模式。主要方法則是藉由機率式地震危害度分析計算特定再現期的愛氏震度危害度,並結合Newmark 位移山崩機率模式得到該再現期下的山崩機率分布,以及特定 Newmark 位移門檻值的地震誘發山崩年超越機率。
為了探討分析模式之可行性,本研究選擇國姓地區進行測試,首先以本研究所提出之反算方法,利用集集地震誘發山崩測繪之資料進行剪力強度參數的反算,獲得區域內各地層的推估強度,用以計算集集地震時的Newmark 位移分布,並與實際誘發山崩資料迴歸建立 Newmark山崩機率模式。同時利用地震危害度分析方法計算研究區域內特定再現期的愛氏震度危害度圖,即可配合上述 Newmark 山崩機率模式獲得該再現期下的 Newmark 位移及其地震誘發山崩機率分布圖。本研究採用之地震危害度分析模式可同時考慮區域震源(採截切指數模式)以及活斷層(特徵地震模式),並且使用本土化的愛氏震度衰減式及國外所用衰減式分別進行評估。
研究成果顯示結合機率式地震危害度分析方法與Newmark 位移法可提供傳統山崩潛感圖所無法反應的時間因素,並可進一步提供工程規劃單位及政府管理當局對於區域規劃的參考,使用者可以從不同再現期中自行選擇可以承受的風險,亦可設定一門檻值,利用地震危害度分析的成果評估其地震誘發山崩的超越機率。以實際地震誘發山崩來反算地層強度可以反應地層的差異性,有助於提升分析品質。經由比較後發現,愛氏震度衰減公式對於地震危害度分析的成果具有相當大的影響,在使用上亦須特別注意。
摘要(英) For a comprehensive hazard assessment of earthquake-induced landslides, it is important to consider temporal effects from regional seismicity and active faults. To include the time factor into landslide hazard analysis, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) can be utilized. In this study, we combined the results from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis with the Newmark’s model to establish a procedure for producing regional probabilistic earthquake-induced landslide hazard map.
The material properties of a slope used for calculating the factor of safety and critical acceleration were back-calculated from landslide inventory. To calculate the probabilities of different levels of seismic shaking in the time interval of interest, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis was conducted by using Arias intensity attenuation equation. The results were input into Newmark’s model to produce a probabilistic landslide hazard map. An example of this approach was applied to an area in central Taiwan and shows that the introduction of the time factor allows for the temporal evaluation of the earthquake-induced landslide hazard.
The proposed approach provides a temporal assessment of the earthquake-induced landslide hazard. Slope’s material properties, estimated from back-analysis, help to conduct a more objective and physical-based assessment.
關鍵字(中) ★ 地震誘發山崩
★ 地震危害度分析
關鍵字(英) ★ seismic hazard analysis
★ earthquake-induced landslide
論文目次 目 錄
提要.........................................................................i
目錄....................................................................... ii
圖目........................................................................iv
表目...................................................................... vii
第一章 緒論..................................................................1
1.1 研究動機與目的...........................................................1
1.2 研究方法及流程...........................................................2
第二章 文獻回顧..............................................................4
2.1 地震誘發山崩之研究.......................................................4
2.2 邊坡穩定分析理論.........................................................5
2.3 Newmark位移法簡介........................................................7
2.4 Newmark位移法之分析參數..................................................7
2.5 Newmark位移值之經驗公式.................................................12
2.6 Newmark位移分析法實例...................................................14
2.7 地震危害度分析在地震誘發山崩問題上的應用................................14
第三章 機率式地震誘發山崩分析模式...........................................22
3.1 地震危害度分析簡介......................................................23
3.2 地震危害度分析理論......................................................23
3.3 台灣地區的地震危害度分析模式............................................24
3.4 本土化愛氏震度衰減式....................................................25
3.5 地質材料參數反算........................................................27
3.6 地形放大效應............................................................28
3.7 機率式地震誘發山崩評估法................................................30
第四章 實例分析.............................................................47
4.1 集集地震及其誘發山崩之特性..............................................47
4.2 研究區域簡介............................................................48
4.3 研究區域內之地震誘發山崩................................................51
4.4 地震誘發山崩崩壞模式建立................................................53
4.5 地震誘發山崩之年超越機率計算............................................57
第五章 討論.................................................................91
5.1 機率式地震誘發山崩危害度分析之探討......................................91
5.2 Newmark門檻值的年超越機率...............................................91
5.3 愛氏震度衰減式的使用....................................................92
5.4 地質材料參數的給定......................................................93
第六章 結論.................................................................98
參考文獻...................................................................100
英文提要...................................................................108
圖 目
圖1-1 本研究之流程圖.........................................................3
圖2-1 Newmark位移法二次積分之示意圖.........................................17
圖2-2 坡度計算所用網格示意圖................................................17
圖2-3 現地量測土壤深度之分佈................................................17
圖2-4 現地量測剪力強度之分佈................................................18
圖2-5 參數適配度演算法示意圖................................................18
圖2-6 Newmark位移分析法流程.................................................19
圖2-7 Newmark位移值10cm的年超越機率值.......................................20
圖2-8 五十年內10%超越機率的Newmark位移值....................................20
圖2-9 超越特定門檻值的臨界加速度值搜尋法....................................21
圖2-10 50年內10%機率超過門檻位移值10cm的臨界加速度值........................21
圖3-1 地震危害度分析流程圖..................................................36
圖3-2 台灣地區淺層區域震源劃分圖............................................37
圖3-3 台灣地區深層區域震源劃分圖............................................38
圖3-4 台灣地區TSMIP強震觀測網測站地盤分類圖.................................39
圖3-5 愛氏震度衰減式所用之地震震央分佈......................................40
圖3-6 愛氏震度衰減式使用地震資料的距離與規模分佈情形........................40
圖3-7 愛氏震度衰減式與資料擬合情形..........................................41
圖3-8 愛氏震度衰減式資料殘差值與地震規模的分佈情形..........................42
圖3-9 愛氏震度衰減式資料殘差值與距離的分佈情形..............................42
圖3-10愛氏震度衰減式之比較..................................................43
圖3-11 本研究適配指數計算參數之示意圖.......................................44
圖3-12 本研究所規劃的參數反算流程...........................................44
圖3-13 日本Matsuzaki地區正規化尖峰地動加速度與高程之關係....................45
圖3-14 各頻率地震波放大效應與高程間的關係...................................45
圖3-15 地形因子示意圖.......................................................46
圖3-16 愛氏震度區間內計算超越特定門檻值機率之示意圖.........................46
圖4-1 集集地震震央位置、餘震分佈及地表破裂圖................................62
圖4-2 以趨勢面分析法建構之車籠埔斷層破裂面幾何形貌..........................63
圖4-3 趨勢面與地表交線及實際車籠埔斷層地表破裂位置示意圖....................63
圖4-4 集集地震誘發之山崩分佈圖..............................................64
圖4-5 崩塌位置之數量與面積統計圖............................................64
圖4-6 研究區範圍及周遭地形彩繪明暗圖........................................65
圖4-7 研究區域三維彩繪明暗圖................................................66
圖4-8 研究區域地質圖........................................................67
圖4-9 本研究所使用之衛星影像................................................68
圖4-10 本研究所使用之地震誘發山崩目錄.......................................69
圖4-11 地震誘發山崩在各地層中的分佈情形.....................................70
圖4-12 研究區域內各地層單元所佔面積.........................................71
圖4-13 研究區域各地層單元內的山崩面積.......................................71
圖4-14 各地層單元的崩壞比...................................................72
圖4-15 本研究所蒐集的集集地震主餘震震央及強震站分佈圖.......................72
圖4-16 以921集集地震主震所計算的愛氏震度等值線..............................73
圖4-17 各地震事件中,單一網格點遭受最大愛氏震度值所內插之愛氏震度等值圖.....73
圖4-18 比高因子圖層.........................................................74
圖4-19 經過地形修正之後的愛氏震度等值圖.....................................74
圖4-20 比高的山崩與非山崩區統計圖及崩壞比...................................75
圖4-21 修正前愛氏震度的山崩與非山崩區統計圖及崩壞比.........................75
圖4-22 修正後愛氏震度的山崩與非山崩區統計圖及崩壞比.........................75
圖4-23 各地質單元內的適配指數...............................................76
圖4-24 各地層單元中 Newmark 位移值與崩壞比關係圖符合Weibull分佈的參數組合...77
圖4-25 各地層單元中 Newmark 位移值與崩壞比關係圖符合Weibull分佈的參數組合(考慮
地形修正)...................................................................78
圖4-26 研究區域坡度分佈圖...................................................79
圖4-27 研究區域安全係數圖...................................................79
圖4-28 研究區域臨界加速度值分佈圖...........................................80
圖4-29 研究區域 Newmark 位移分佈圖..........................................80
圖4-30 Newmark 位移值與崩壞比之關係式.......................................81
圖4-31 集集地震狀況下之地震誘發山崩機率.....................................81
圖4-32 集集地震狀況下山崩機率與實際誘發山崩圖層之套疊.......................82
圖4-33 研究區域Newmark位移分佈圖 (考慮地形修正) ............................82
圖4-34 Newmark位移值與崩壞比之關係式(考慮地形修正)..........................83
圖4-35 集集地震狀況下之地震誘發山崩機率.....................................83
圖4-36 集集地震狀況下山崩機率與實際誘發山崩圖層之套疊.......................84
圖4-37 50年內10%超越機率之愛氏震度(本土化衰減式)............................84
圖4-38 50年內10%超越機率之愛氏震度(國外衰減式)..............................85
圖4-39 50年內2%超越機率之愛氏震度(本土化衰減式).............................85
圖4-40 50年內2%超越機率之愛氏震度(國外衰減式)...............................86
圖4-41 地震誘發山崩之年超越機率值(本土化衰減式) ............................86
圖4-42 地震誘發山崩之年超越機率值(國外衰減式) ..............................87
圖4-43 地震誘發山崩之年超越機率值(本土化衰減式,地形修正) ..................87
圖4-44 地震誘發山崩之年超越機率值(國外衰減式,地形修正) ....................88
圖4-45 超越10公分門檻值之年發生率(本土化衰減式) ............................88
圖4-46 超越15公分門檻值之年發生率(本土化衰減式) ............................89
圖4-47 超越10公分門檻值之年發生率(國外衰減式) ..............................89
圖4-48 超越15公分門檻值之年發生率(國外衰減式) ..............................90
圖5-1 與集集地震規模相當的地震誘發山崩潛感圖................................95
圖5-2 50年內10%超越機率愛氏震度製作之山崩潛感圖.............................95
圖5-3 50年內2%超越機率愛氏震度製作之山崩潛感圖..............................96
圖5-4 崩積層厚度之半變異圖及其擬合模式......................................96
圖5-5 土壤深度與邊坡曲率之關係..............................................97
表 目
表2-1 利用坡度給定崩塌深度對照表............................................16
表2-2 利用山崩潛感分級給定強度參數..........................................16
表2-3 各種岩性的平均內凝聚力及摩擦角........................................16
表3-1 台灣地區淺層區域震源參數一覽表........................................31
表3-2 台灣地區深層區域震源參數一覽表........................................32
表3-3 UBC 1997 地盤分類與台灣地盤分類比較表.................................32
表3-4 Travasarou 等人之愛氏震度衰減式參數列表...............................33
表3-5 Hwang等人之愛氏震度衰減式係數.........................................33
表3-6 愛氏震度衰減式迴歸使用之地震資料......................................34
表3-7 本研究所迴歸之愛氏震度衰減式係數列表..................................35
表4-1 本研究所使用之衛星影像列表............................................59
表4-2 研究區域內各地層之分佈面積、山崩面積及其崩壞比........................59
表4-3 集集地震主震及餘震資料表..............................................60
表4-4 各地層單元之最適參數組合..............................................60
表4-5 各地層單元之最適參數組合(考慮地形效應)................................61
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指導教授 蔡義本、李錫堤
(Yi-Ben Tsai、Chyi-Tyi Lee)
審核日期 2005-1-13
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