柔性鋪面現況服務力指標與預測模式建立之研究

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洪境聰(ching-Tsung Hung) 查詢紙本館藏

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論文名稱

柔性鋪面現況服務力指標與預測模式建立之研究
(The Study on Establishing the Present Serviceability Index and Predictive Model of Flexible Pavement)

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摘要(中)

本研究之目的在回顧國內外進行服務力指標建立方法之相關文獻，針對交通部公路局一區工程處所管轄之省、縣道之部分路段進行鋪面現況服務力評分試驗、糙度調查、車轍深度量測與鋪面損壞調查等研究，並考量鋪面變數其成因錯綜複雜，導致各參數因交互影響無法有效表現與鋪面現況服務力評分間的相關性，故採用模糊積分方法建立無交互作用之綜合評估值，另考量調查資料之模糊性，若採用傳統迴歸模型並不符合現實狀況，故另行考量模糊迴歸模型尋找主觀資料與客觀資料的關係，以建立鋪面現況服務力指標。並以類神經網路模型建立預測模式供鋪面工程師瞭解路面惡化的情形，作為養護決策之參考。
本研究依現場試驗與調查結果，經資料整理與統計分析得到省縣道現況服務力指標，與 PSI可容忍極限值為2.19。另以類神經網路進行預測模式之建立，可得到良好的預測結果。

摘要(英)

According to the on-site survey and investigation, the present serviceability index for provincial and county roads can be derived by statistical analysis. And, the critical value of PSI is 2.19. In addition, the good predictive results also can be obtained from the predictive model established by neural network.

關鍵字(中)

★ 鋪面現況服務力指標
★ 路面破損調查
★ 小組評分
★ 模糊積分
★ 模糊迴歸
★ 類神經網路

關鍵字(英)

★ Present serviceability
★ Pavement distress survey
★ Panel rating
★ Fuzzy integral
★ Fuzzy regression
★ Neural network

論文目次

目錄
第一章緒論 1
1.1 研究動機 1
1.2 研究目的 2
1.3 研究內容與方法 3
1.4 研究流程 5
第二章文獻回顧 6
2.1 鋪面管理系統概論 6
2.2 鋪面成效評估 7
2.2.1 小組評分(Panel Ratings) 9
2.2.2 鋪面現況服務能力指標(Pavement Serviceability Index) 10
2.2.3 鋪面服務能力指標建立方式 11
2.3 鋪面影響因素 13
2.3.1 鋪面平坦度 13
2.3.1.1 平坦度調查儀器 14
2.3.1.2 平坦度指標 17
2.3.2 車轍 20
2.3.3 鋪面破損調查 20
2.3.3.1 鋪面破損分類 21
2.3.3.2 破損調查儀器 22
2.4 鋪面服務能力指標標準之訂立 23
2.5 鋪面服務能力指標預測建立方式 25
2.5.1 直線外插法 26
2.5.2 迴歸（經驗）法 26
2.5.3 多項式最小平方法 27
2.5.4 S形曲線法 28
2.5.5 機率論模式 28
2.5.6 類神經網路 29
第三章小組評分調查與結果分析 31
3.1 小組成員組成 31
3.2 調查表格 36
3.3 調查路段 37
3.4 調查方式 37
3.5 數據檢驗 39
3.5.1 成對比較（paired sample test） 40
3.5.1.1 性別因素 42
3.5.1.2 駕駛經驗 42
3.5.1.3 年齡因素 43
3.5.2 數量化理論Ⅰ型 43
3.5.2.1 數量化理論Ⅰ型模型與計算步驟 44
3.5.2.2 數量化理論分析 46
3.5.3 小組評分調查結果 47
第四章建立鋪面服務能力指標 51
4.1 鋪面破損狀況反模糊化 53
4.2 鋪面指標影響變數獨立性檢定 65
4.3 模糊積分於非獨立性變數之轉換 69
4.3.1 模糊測度與模糊測度 69
4.3.2 測度 70
4.3.3 利用遺傳演算法計算測度 72
4.3.3.1 遺傳演算法 72
4.3.3.2 利用遺傳演算法計算模型 74
4.3.3.3 影響路面舒適性變數之測度計算 74
4.3.4 模糊積分 76
4.3.5 模糊積分轉換 77
4.3.6 模糊積分效用分析-以傳統迴歸模型為例 78
4.4 模糊迴歸分析 80
4.4.1 可能性模糊迴歸模型 81
4.4.2 模糊迴歸模型之基本假設 85
4.4.3 模糊迴歸模型之性質與修正 87
4.4.4 模糊迴歸於其他領域的應用 89
4.4.5 利用模糊迴歸模型建立路面現況服務力指標 93
4.4.6 路面現況服務力指標之驗證 94
4.5 擬定門檻值 97
第五章鋪面服務能力指標預測模式 101
5.1 生物學上的模型 101
5.2 類神經網路模型 102
5.2.1 網路模式 103
5.2.2 倒傳遞類神經網路 106
5.3 建構流程 112
5.4 柔性鋪面現況服務力指標預測 112
5.5 敏感度分析 114
第六章結論與建議 117
6.1 結論 117
6.2 建議 118
參考文獻 119
附錄
附錄A小組評分前指導手冊與調查表格
附錄B路面破損狀況模糊評估準則調查問卷
附錄C模糊迴歸轉換程式說明與VBA程式碼
附錄D柔性鋪面現況服務力指標之模糊迴歸線性規劃式

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指導教授

林志棟(Jyh-Dong Lin)

審核日期

2000-6-30

推文