重大災難對台北國際觀光旅館經營績效的影響

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姓名

江莞兒(Wan-Erh Chiang) 查詢紙本館藏

畢業系所

企業管理學系

論文名稱

重大災難對台北國際觀光旅館經營績效的影響
(The Impact of Disasters on the Hotel Performance in Taipei)

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摘要(中)

自一九九九年至二００三年五年期間，台灣歷經三個重大災難--九二一地震，九一一恐怖攻擊，及SARS疫情的蔓延。其對觀光產業影響甚鉅。在政府推出『挑戰二００八：國家發展重點計畫』致力推動「觀光客倍增計畫」的背景之下，為釐清災難對國際觀光旅館經營績效(hotel performance)所造成之衝擊，本研究探討之焦點著重在災難對觀光旅館住房表現之變化。透過大台北地區國際觀光旅館五年間的月營運資料，分析災難影響飯店營運的程度(magnitude)與期間(duration)，以及住房率與房價的關係。X12-ARIMA用來調整時間、季節對於觀光需求的影響。資料包絡分析用來區隔旅館之經營有效率或無效率。分析結果顯示，在九二一地震期間，台北地區國際觀光旅館業績平均下跌2.25個月，RevPAR平均累積下滑16.1%。相較於獨立經營的旅館，連鎖旅館有較佳的表現,，但不顯著。而以日本為主要客源的飯店，損失明顯比其他飯店嚴重。以往經營有效率的飯店，損失有比較輕微，但統計上不顯著。在九一一恐怖攻擊事件中，台北地區國際觀光旅館業績平均下跌2.18個月，RevPAR平均下滑 13.35 %。相較於獨立經營的旅館，連鎖旅館的損失較少，並不顯著。以日本為主要客源的飯店，業績損失雖然較大，但也不顯著。以往經營有效率的飯店，損失比較少，也不顯著。而在 SARS疫情爆發期間，台北地區國際觀光旅館住房業績巨幅下跌，影響有8.8個月之久，RevPAR平均累積下滑 288.8%。相較於獨立經營的旅館，連鎖旅館有較低的損失，但在統計上並不顯著。以日本為主要客源的飯店，業績損失非常高，顯著高於其他飯店。以往經營有效率的飯店，損失較少，但統計上不顯著。

摘要(英)

During the year of 1999 to 2003, the tourism demand of Taiwan had encountered three devastating disasters: the September 21 earthquake in 1999, the 911 terrorist attacks in the USA in 2001, and the SARS outbreak in the second quarter of 2003. The X-12-ARIMA was applied to adjust the seasonal factors and further to examine the impact of disasters on the hotel performance in Taipei. The results show that the international tourist hotels suffered the greatest loss during the SARS outbreak, with an average loss of 288.8% in RevPAR for 8.8 months, followed by the 921 earthquake (16.1% in 2.25 months), and the 911 terrorist attacks (13.35% in 2.18 months).
During the 921 earthquake, the chain hotels have a lower mean RevPAR decline than the independent hotels. The hotels targeting at Japanese market suffer a significantly higher average RevPAR loss than the others. The efficient hotels have a lower average RevPAR loss.
During the 911 terrorist attacks, the chain hotels have a lower mean RevPAR decline than the independent ones. The hotels targeting at Japanese market have a higher RevPAR loss than the other ones. The efficient hotels experience less decline than the inefficient hotels.
Among the three disasters, the SARS outbreak had the biggest influence toward hotel performance. The chain hotels have a relative lower RevPAR than the independent ones. The hotels targeting at Japanese market have a higher RevPAR loss than the others. Relatively, the efficient hotels have less loss than the inefficient hotels.

關鍵字(中)

★ 國際觀光旅館
★ 季節調整
★ 經營績效
★ 資料包絡分析

關鍵字(英)

★ 911 Terrorists Attacks
★ SARS Outbreak
★ 921 Earthquake
★ Hotel

論文目次

ABSTRACT iv
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT v
TABLE OF CONTENTS vi
LIST OF TABLES viii
LIST OF FIGURES ix
CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Motivation 1
1.2 The Framework of This Research 7
1.3 The Structure of this Dissertation 9
CHAPTER 2 BACKGROUND 11
2.1 The Three Devastating Disasters 11
2.1.1 The September 21st Earthquake in 1999 11
2.1.2 The September 11th, 2001 terrorist attacks in the US 12
2.1.3 The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in 2003 13
2.2 The Hotel Classifications/Attributes 15
CHAPTER 3 METHODOLOGY 19
3.1 Samples & Data 20
3.2 X-12-ARIMA 27
3.3 Data Envelopment Analysis 37
3.3.1 Selection of DMUs 40
3.3.2 Input-Output Variables 41
3.3.3 Models 43
3.4 T-Test 47
CHAPTER 4 THE EFFICIENT HOTELS 48
4.1 Efficiency Score Analysis 48
4.2 Slack Analysis and Projected Value 50
4.3 Discussion 57
4.4 The DEA Results for the Year 1998 and 2002 59
CHAPTER 5 THE IMPACT OF DISASTERS 63
5.1 The Impact of Disasters 63
CHAPTER 6 CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS 69
6.1 Conclusions 69
6.2 Suggestions 72
REFERENCES 74
APPENDIX: DECOMPOSTITION OF THE REVPAR SERIES FOR EVERY SAMPLE HOTEL 81
LIST OF TABLES
TALBE 1-1 Hotel Companies That Franchise the Most Hotels 6
TALBE 1-2 Hotel Companies That Manage the Most Hotels 6
TALBE 2-1 Annual Arrivals and Growth Rate 15
TABLE 3-1 New International Tourist Hotels 22
TALBE 3-2 Hotel Names, Operational Styles and Operators 23
TALBE 3-3 Hotels and Their Managerial Styles & Market Segments 26
TABLE 3-4 Hotels & RegARIMA Model 29
TALBE 3-5 The Irregular Component in RevPAR Series of Royal Hotel 34
TALBE 4-1 Estimated Overall, Pure Technical, and Scale Efficiency Scores 49
TABLE 4-2 Amounts of Improvement /Slack of Inefficient DMUs 53
TABLE 4-3 Original Value and Projected Value (in Parenthesis) for Inefficient
DMUs 54
TALBE 4-4 Top 10 Hotels in F&B Performance 55
TALBE 4-5 Ratio of Room and F&B Revenues for Each DMU 56
TALBE 4-6 The Efficiency Score of the Year 1998 60
TALBE 4-7 The Efficiency Score of the Year 2002 62
TALBE 5-1 Summary Impacts of the three Disasters on Taipei Hotels 64
TABLE 5-2 Test of Normality Between Groups 65
TABLE 5-3 Levene’s Test for Equality of Variances 66
TABLE 6-1 RevPAR Decline Between Groups of Three Disasters (%) 71
LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURE 1-1 Number of Jobs generated by Tourism Industry 2
FIGURE 1-2 Hotel Companies in the Most Countries 5
FIGURE 1-3 The Framework of the Study 10
FIGURE 2-1 The Inbound Tourists Among 1998/01 to 2004/05 14
FIGURE 2-2 The Classification of Taiwan Hotels 18
FIGURE 3-1 Flow Diagram for Seasonal Adjustment with X-12-ARIMA 28
FIGURE 3-2 The Irregular Component in RevPAR Series of the Royal Hotel 35
FIGURE 5-1 The Performance Decline of the Three Disasters 63

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指導教授

蔡明宏、李小梅
(Ming-Hone Tsai、Li Shau-Mei Wang)

審核日期

2005-4-6

推文